This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Expert Picks and Player Props for April 11
Through about a dozen games the AL East is once again proving to be the best division in baseball, led by the upstart New York Yankees compiling an outstanding MLB-best 10-3 record averaging a -124-wager, including a 4-9 Over-Under record. They are 7-6 averaging a -116-wager using the run line and have played consistently winning baseball out of the gate. The Guardians have the second-best record at 9-3 averaging a -140-wager, including a 7-4-1 Over-Under record. In a repeat of last season, the surprise team has been the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have posted a 9-3 record averaging a -104 wager, including an 8-3 Over-Under record. The Pirates are more talented and have greater depth this season, so they have the potential to be a playoff team.
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MLB Picks for Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
The MLB Thursday card is quite short with just six games to be played and two already postponed due to inclement weather conditions. This AL East battle is just one of the highly competitive matchups. The Red Sox are off to a 7-5 start averaging a -102 wager with the $100 bettor making a profit of $222 and a juicy 19% ROI. The Orioles are 7-4 averaging a much-more-expensive -138 wager because of the high expectations surrounding them entering the season. As a result, the $100 bettor has earned $140 and a solid 11% ROI.
Who Are the Starting Pitchers?
The Red Sox will give the ball to right-hander Garrett Whitlock, who was drafted by the Yankees in the 18th round of the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft out of the University of Alabama. He debuted on April 4, 2021 and has made 101 appearances, including 21 starts and has worked his way into a starter's role.
Whitlock does a great job keeping the ball down in the zone generating whiffs or weakly hit ground balls. The average launch angle is just 5 degrees and average velocity an excellent 84.4 MPH. He has struck out 30 percent of the batters faced. He relies on his 94 MPH fastball with heavy sink action and an excellent changeup that averages 83 MPH that is thrown out of the same arm slot as his fastball, making it very difficult for batters to identify that pitch.
The Orioles will be countering with right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, who was the 11th overall draft pick by the Baltimore Orioles in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft. He made his debut last season on April 5 and went 7-4 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. In two starts in 2024, he has gone 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA and a 1.054 WHIP while showing the signs of a top-level starting pitcher. He has a tremendous fastball averaging 97 MPH and then mixes in an 84 MPH changeup and 82 MPH slider. He is a rare talent in that his change is faster than his slider, which is a great combination in his arsenal.
The Situational Trends Supporting the Red Sox
The following situational MLB betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 61-35 for 64 percent winning bets averaging a -104 wager and earning an outstanding 26 percent ROI. The requirements are:
· Bet on home teams priced between a -125 favorite and a +125 underdog.
· The home team is outscoring its opponents by at least 1.0 RPG.
· The road team is from the AL and allowing 3.9 or fewer RPG.
MLB Picks for Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies will host the Pirates in a four-game series for the battle of Pennsylvania starting Thursday at 6:40 PM ET. The Phillies are priced as -140 home favorites at BetMGM and with a posted total of nine runs.
After a slow start, the Phillies have worked their way back to an even 6-6 record, averaging a -137 wager and with the $100 bettor losing $174 for an unwanted -11% ROI. They have seen their last seven games play Under, which followed the first five games playing Over their respective totals. The Pirates have done very well out of the gate, but this will be a tough four-games series for them to win.
The starting rotation will see the Phillies start their left-hander Ranger Suarez, then another left-hander in Cristopher Sanchez, followed by right-hander Spencer Turnbull and ending with their ace right-hander Zack Wheeler. That is a strong four starters for even the top teams in MLB to take down.
MLB Betting Algorithm Supporting the Phillies
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 13-7 record for 65 percent winning bets averaging a 128-favorite wager spanning the past 20 seasons. The requirements are:
· Bet on a home team in April.
· That home team is on a current 7 or more-game Under streak.
The Over is also a decent 12-7, good for 63 percentwinning bets over the past 20 seasons.
I do see the Phillies' offense starting to come together and on paper is one of the best powerhouses in MLB. So, here are a few player prop bets to consider for Friday night lights.
· Nick Castellanos to have two or more hits priced at +290 at FanDuel.
· Trea Turner to have a stolen base priced at +290 at FanDuel.
· Harper to get a home run priced at +330 at FanDuel.
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
· Bet the Boston Red Sox over the Baltimore Orioles as an 8-Unit Best Bet
· Bet on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Pittsburgh Pirates as an 8-unit underdog bet
