Pitching Prospect Tiers 2.0

Pitching Prospect Tiers 2.0

This article is part of our Farm Futures series.

The first version of this article came out three months ago, and with my top 400 prospect rankings fully updated, I wanted to update these redraft tiers. This year, I'm breaking it up into separate articles for hitters and pitchers. The updated hitter tiers were published last week. I included essentially every pitcher (86 total) who I think has a chance of playing in the majors this season. In the bigger tiers, I found it useful to break up the players by team so that you can see who each guy might be competing with and compare players in the same organization. Please let me know in the comments if you think I left anyone out -- chances are I left them out on purpose or they are no longer prospect eligible. I wrote the outlooks for every player in the first four tiers, so go to the player's page if you want a full breakdown. 

Two additions I've made for Vol. 2.0: for each player, I've included their NFBC 15-team Draft Champions ADP from Jan. 18 - Feb. 17 as well as my NFBC player shares from my seven draft-and-hold teams.

Please Stay Healthy

Baz is a future ace if he can stay relatively healthy. He clearly has the best stuff of the pitchers who go around pick 125, but he probably won't pitch more than 140 innings, even if he stays healthy all season.

Shane Baz TB (ADP: 126, Shares 2/7)

Universal Appeal

These are the other

The first version of this article came out three months ago, and with my top 400 prospect rankings fully updated, I wanted to update these redraft tiers. This year, I'm breaking it up into separate articles for hitters and pitchers. The updated hitter tiers were published last week. I included essentially every pitcher (86 total) who I think has a chance of playing in the majors this season. In the bigger tiers, I found it useful to break up the players by team so that you can see who each guy might be competing with and compare players in the same organization. Please let me know in the comments if you think I left anyone out -- chances are I left them out on purpose or they are no longer prospect eligible. I wrote the outlooks for every player in the first four tiers, so go to the player's page if you want a full breakdown. 

Two additions I've made for Vol. 2.0: for each player, I've included their NFBC 15-team Draft Champions ADP from Jan. 18 - Feb. 17 as well as my NFBC player shares from my seven draft-and-hold teams.

Please Stay Healthy

Baz is a future ace if he can stay relatively healthy. He clearly has the best stuff of the pitchers who go around pick 125, but he probably won't pitch more than 140 innings, even if he stays healthy all season.

Shane Baz TB (ADP: 126, Shares 2/7)

Universal Appeal

These are the other three pitching prospects that should be getting drafted in standard mixed leagues. Ashby has the best stuff and should be part of a five- or six-man rotation for most of the season. Detmers has the second-best stuff and could win a rotation spot out of camp. Ryan has the third-best stuff and is a lock to pitch in the big-league rotation all season.

Aaron Ashby MIL (ADP: 269, Shares 2/7)

Reid Detmers LAA (ADP: 409, Shares 6/7)

Joe Ryan MIN (ADP: 211, Shares 0/7)

Priority Follows During Spring Training

Most of these guys could realistically win rotation spots in camp. The more I learn about Cody Morris, the more I think he is actually one of the best pitching prospects in the game. Check out his outlook for more on that. 

CLEVELAND

Cody Morris (ADP: 569, Shares 3/7)

REDS

Hunter Greene (ADP: 422, Shares 1/7)

Nick Lodolo (ADP: 509, Shares 3/7) (shoulder/blister issues at end of '21 season) 

Reiver Sanmartin (ADP: 495, Shares 2/7)

PIRATES

Roansy Contreras (ADP: 427, Shares 0/7)

Miguel Yajure (ADP: 722, Shares 2/7) (back injury)

YANKEES

Luis Gil (ADP: 482, Shares 2/7)

MARINERS

Matt Brash (ADP: 593, Shares 2/7)

RANGERS

Cole Winn (ADP: 654, Shares 4/7)

MARLINS

Edward Cabrera (ADP: 462, Shares 0/7)

Sixto Sanchez (ADP: 373, Shares 0/7) (shoulder surgery, reportedly didn't follow rehab plan from team) 

ATLANTA

Kyle Muller (ADP: 528, Shares 0/7)

Tucker Davidson (ADP: 553, Shares 0/7) (returned from forearm injury in '21 playoffs) 

GIANTS

Sammy Long (ADP: 585, Shares 1/7)

CARDINALS

Matthew Liberatore (ADP: 617, Shares 1/7)

TWINS

Josh Winder (ADP: 747, Shares 0/7) (shoulder injury)

RAYS

Tommy Romero (ADP: 681, Shares 1/7)

FAAB Events

While we will certainly want to pay attention to these guys in spring training, they are all near-locks to open the year at Triple-A, where they will likely remain for a month or more. Aside from in draft-and-hold formats, it's best not to draft these guys with our current information, as they could easily get injured weeks before a big-league promotion is even realistic. They are all talented enough to generate significant buzz upon news of their promotion, and it could require 10% or more of your FAAB budget to add them after that news breaks.

Grayson Rodriguez  BAL (ADP: 462, Shares 1/7)

Cade Cavalli WAS (ADP: 560, Shares 2/7)

Max Meyer MIA (ADP: 492, Shares 0/7)

George Kirby SEA (ADP: 608, Shares 0/7)

Brandon Williamson SEA (ADP: 733, Shares 1/7)

Caleb Kilian CHC (ADP: 737, Shares 0/7)

DL Hall BAL (ADP: 737, Shares 0/7) (elbow injury) 

Depth Options Of Varying Quality

These guys fall into one of two buckets. They're either very intriguing talents who may not see more than a handful of starts in the majors this season, or they're underwhelming talents who are good bets to get work in the bullpen or the rotation. Within each team, I've listed them in order of how likely I think it is that they provide positive fantasy value this season.

YANKEES

Hayden Wesneski (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Clarke Schmidt (ADP: 698, Shares 0/7)

Ken Waldichuk (ADP: 751, Shares 0/7)

Deivi Garcia (ADP: 704, Shares 0/7)

Luis Medina (ADP: 750, Shares 0/7)

TWINS

Jordan Balazovic (ADP: 727, Shares 0/7)

Cole Sands (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Drew Strotman (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Jhoan Duran (ADP: 751, Shares 0/7) (elbow injury) 

ATLANTA

Bryce Elder (ADP: 751, Shares 0/7)

Spencer Strider (ADP: 705, Shares 0/7)

CLEVELAND

Tobias Myers (ADP: 750, Shares 0/7)

Konnor Pilkington (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Peyton Battenfield (ADP: 747, Shares 0/7)

Logan T. Allen (ADP: 741, Shares 0/7)

ORIOLES

Kyle Bradish (ADP: 751, Shares 0/7)

RANGERS

Glenn Otto (ADP: 544, Shares 0/7)

A.J. Alexy (ADP: 650, Shares 0/7)

Yerry Rodriguez (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Jack Leiter (ADP: 747, Shares 0/7)

Ronny Henriquez (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

DIAMONDBACKS

Ryne Nelson (ADP: 751, Shares 0/7)

Drey Jameson (ADP: 749, Shares 0/7)

Brandon Pfaadt (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

MARLINS

Braxton Garrett (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

ATHLETICS

Daulton Jefferies (ADP: 630, Shares 0/7) (elbow injury) 

ROYALS

Angel Zerpa (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Drew Parrish (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Jon Heasley (ADP: 750, Shares 0/7)

DODGERS

Andre Jackson (ADP: 746, Shares 0/7)

Ryan Pepiot (ADP: 749, Shares 0/7)

Landon Knack (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Bobby Miller (ADP: 746, Shares 0/7)

ANGELS

Davis Daniel (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Sam Bachman (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

CUBS

Brailyn Marquez (ADP: 749, Shares 0/7)

RED SOX

Connor Seabold (ADP: 745, Shares 0/7)

Kutter Crawford (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Brayan Bello (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Jay Groome(ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

PHILLIES

Hans Crouse (ADP: 743, Shares 0/7)

NATIONALS

Joan Adon (ADP: 690, Shares 0/7)

Seth Romero (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Gerardo Carrillo (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

REDS

Graham Ashcraft (ADP: 751, Shares 0/7)

PADRES

MacKenzie Gore (ADP: 627, Shares 0/7)

Adrian Martinez (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

ASTROS

Shawn Dubin (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Hunter Brown (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Forrest Whitley (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7) (elbow surgery) 

BREWERS

Ethan Small (ADP: 730, Shares 0/7)

GIANTS

Sean Hjelle (ADP: 749, Shares 0/7)

METS

Jose Butto (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

ROCKIES

Ryan Rolison (ADP: 750, Shares 0/7)

Long Shots

These are the four best pitching prospects who I don't think have a realistic chance to debut this year. However, just the fact that they are so good means there's a slight chance we see them. We have seen cases like the late Jose Fernandez, where extremely special talents get pushed much more aggressively than we expect.

Daniel Espino CLE (ADP: 750, Shares 0/7)

Kyle Harrison SF (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Taj Bradley TB (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

Eury Perez MIA (ADP: Undrafted, Shares 0/7)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
James Anderson
James Anderson is RotoWire's Lead Prospect Analyst, Assistant Baseball Editor, and co-host of Farm Fridays on Sirius/XM radio and the RotoWire Prospect Podcast.
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