Three Up, Three Down: Padres, Rockies, Cardinals

As we all know, prospect development is not linear. Players that look to be the next big thing will have down years only to bounce back a year — or more — later, and prospects that looked like organizational depth become potential stars only to face regression the next season. A prospect list is just a moment in time, and those players very rarely remain stagnant in their respective spot. 

This week, let's take a look at the prospects who saw their stock rise — and some whose stock fell — from the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Giants. 

San Diego Padres

Three Up

Ethan Salas, C: There are a plethora of prospects who saw their stock go up in 2023 for the Padres, so much so that a name like Robby Snelling will be left out. (Note: Snelling is really good.) Salas was the opposite of an unknown when he signed for $2.8 million last January, but when you reach Double-A as a 17-year-old and are considered one of the top prospects in baseball regardless of position? Yeah, stock up. The left-handed hitting backstop registered a .752 OPS over 254 at-bats in 66 games while smacking nine homers.  

Level of optimism: High. The only reason this could be considered "moderate" is that Salas is still so young, and even while reaching the Texas League, you have to acknowledge that there's a smidgen of volatility in a player who doesn't turn 18 until the start of June. That being said, when you're talking about a catcher who has a chance to hit for average and power and plays well above-average defense at the age of a high school senior, there's no reason to think that Salas isn't going to be a regular. His upside competes with any prospect in baseball. 

Jairo Iriarte, RHP: Iriarte was signed back in 2018 without much fanfare, but he now ranks as one of the top pitching prospects in the San Diego system after a 2023 season that saw him fan 128 hitters over 90.1 innings while splitting time with High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio with a solid 3.49 ERA. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Iriarte has two pitches that project to miss bats at the highest level, starting (and sometimes finishing) with a fastball that can get into the mid-to-high 90s and a change that comes from the same arm speed. The concern is a slider that will need to show more consistency if it's going to be a competent third pitch, and his command needs considerable work. He could be an excellent reliever if the Padres go that route, but the Padres should and will give Iriarte a chance to develop into a starter, given that he just turned 22 in the middle of December. 

Graham Pauley, INF: The Padres appear to have gotten a steal with Pauley, as they procured his services by drafting him in the 13th round of the 2022 draft out of Duke. After a solid campaign that summer that saw him forge an .879 OPS, the 23-year-old escalated things with a .308/.393/.531 slash with 23 homers and 22 stolen bases. 

Level of optimism: Moderate. If Pauley was capable of playing a position like shortstop, center field or catcher, this would be an easier profile to be excited about. He has a strong approach at the plate with developing power, and there isn't an overwhelming amount of swing-and-miss in his profile. Because he's likely a third baseman — with a non-zero chance he'll need to move across the diamond — the bat is going to have to come close to maxing out. Based on what we saw in 2023, that can't be ruled out. 

Three Down

Joshua Mears, OF: Mears joined the Padres in 2019 after being taken with the 48th pick, and he really struggled in his 62 games in the Midwest League. He hit just .158 with a .638 OPS over 190 at-bats, homering just nine times. 

Level of concern: High. Mears was very intriguing entering 2022, but not much has gone right for the outfielder since. His biggest issue has been making any kind of consistent contact, and last year he plummeted to 96 strikeouts over those aforementioned 190 at-bats. There's still plenty of raw power in his right-handed bat and he's a solid athlete, but there's just too much risk that comes with Mears' potential reward at this stage. 

Victor Lizarraga, RHP: Lizarraga looked like an up-and-comer in 2022 with a 3.43 ERA and 95:34 K:BB for Low-A Lake Elsinore, but he didn't match that success in 2023. The right-hander saw his ERA jump up to 4.07 for the High-A Tin Caps, and he fanned just 78 over his 94.2 innings of work.

Level of concern: Moderate-to-high. Lizarraga was a 19-year-old working in the Midwest League, so some struggles are certainly understandable. That being said, the lack of an out-pitch is concerning, and it showed up in Fort Wayne, as seen in his low strikeout totals. Scouts have positive things to say about his acumen on the mound and he repeats his delivery well for such a young age, but he's going to have to see an uptick in stuff to reach the highest level. 

Eguy Rosario, OF: Rosario's stock dropping has more to do with the rise of some of the other players in the San Diego system than anything he did wrong. The 24-year-old reached the majors for a cup of coffee while he hit a respectable — if unspectacular — .265/.348/.422 over 43 games for Triple-A El Paso. 

Level of concern: Moderate. Rosario has been in the San Diego system for a whopping eight seasons if you count 2020, and at this point, what you see is what you get. He's a solid defensive player with a plus-plus arm and the ability to play all over the infield, but neither the hit or power are likely to be more than fringe-average. He'd need to steal 30-plus bases to be fantasy-relevant, and while that's not impossible, it's not terribly likely. Rosario is a utility player, and that's fine. 

Colorado Rockies

Three Up 

Adael Amador, SS/2B: Amador is now widely considered to be the top prospect in the Colorado system, and that's not darning with faint praise. He impressed statistically in 2023 with an .875 OPS, 12 homers and 15 stolen bases over 69 games while finishing his campaign with Double-A Hartford. 

Level of optimism: High. Amador has a rare combination of high ceiling and floor in large part thanks to his outstanding approach at the plate. He not only draws walks, he's one of the few hitters who can conjure up free passes with minimal swing-and-miss, as seen in his 87:67 BB:K in 2023. He's also a solid defender up the middle, and while his power isn't ever going to wow, he's strong enough to turn on mistakes. Amador has a chance to be a fantasy regular in the coming years, and the fact he'll play half his games in Coors Field makes him all the more exciting. 

Yanquiel Fernandez, OF: Fernandez's stats were down in 2023 compared to 2022 with a .799 OPS compared to .847, but there's no denying his stock rose over the summer. The outfielder went deep 22 times while splitting the majority of the season with Hartford and High-A Spokane across 117 games. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. It's worth pointing out that Fernandez was much better in the Northwest League (.959 OPS) than he was in Double-A (.624). It's also worth pointing out that he was a 20-year-old for the entirety of the 2023 campaign, and there were more than enough flashes to suggest a bright future for the left-handed hitter. There's easy plus power in his bat, and while he'll need to improve his approach and tone down the strikeouts to reach his ceiling, there are no Colorado hitters who match his upside in the system, in my humble estimation. Some risk, plenty of reward. 

Dyan Jorge, SS: Jorge was an intriguing prospect coming into 2023 as a player who was given the highest international bonus in Colorado's history in January of 2022, and he didn't disappoint. The 20-year-old was able to reach Low-A Fresno, and over 70 games between there and short-season ball he slashed .306/.375/.421 while adding 19 thefts. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Jorge has a high floor because he can pick it at shortstop, and his solid arm will keep him up the middle for the foreseeable future. Power is a question mark — although his 6-foot-3, 170-pound frame suggests he'll get stronger — but he uses the entire field, and his plus speed is a weapon once on the bases. He may not be a future star, but he's one of the more underrated infield prospects in baseball right now. 

Three Down

Zac Veen, OF: Drafted with the eighth-overall pick in 2020, Veen impressed in his first professional season, but things have not gone well since. He followed up a .724 OPS in 2022 with a .611 mark in 2023 over 46 games for the Double-A Yard Goats before requiring season-ending surgery on his left wrist in June. 

Level of concern: Moderate-to-high. It's going to be hard to give up on a player like Veen, especially when you see that even in a down year he added another 22 steals in those 46 games, and he's swiped 113 over 278 career MiLB games. He also has shown the makings of a hitter who can hit for power, but it just hasn't shown up in games, as he went deep only twice for Hartford before the injury. Add in the fact that there are contact issues — in terms of both quality and quantity — and Veen offers just as much risk as he does reward, possibly more. 

Gabriel Hughes, RHP: Many were surprised that Hughes went as high as he did in the 2022 MLB Draft — with all due respect to the right-hander — as Colorado drafted him with the 10th pick of that summer's iteration. The right-hander struggled in his first full pro year with a 6.21 ERA over 66.2 innings, but he was able to whiff 83 hitters against 26 walks. 

Level of concern: High. Despite the poor numbers, Hughes does have intriguing stuff with a fastball that gets into the upper 90s and a slider that flashes plus. It's also worth noting that he's "new" to full-time pitching, as he was a two-way player for most of his prep career. That being said, this is a 22-year-old that needs significant improvement in his command, and the stuff didn't show much consistency in 2023. And, of course, you can't help but note that he would have to make his home starts in, well, you know. 

Benny Montgomery, OF: Yep, it's another first-round pick by the Rockies. It's pretty crazy that their system is as good as it is when you consider this is the third high draft pick over the last four years on this list. Montgomery was taken eighth in 2021, and the outfielder posted a pedestrian .706 OPS for High-A Spokane over 109 games. 

Level of concern: Moderate-to-low. While Montgomery struggled with the bat for most of the year, the tools are still readily apparent for the 21-year-old. There's plus power potential in his right-handed bat, and he's a plus-plus runner who has a chance to be an elite defender at the highest level. He needs to be better in 2024, but I'm much more confident in Montgomery turning it around than I am the two names above him. 

St. Louis Cardinals

Three Up

Thomas Saggese, INF: Saggese came over from Texas to the Cardinals in the deal for Jordan Montgomery, and while flags fly forever, there could be a time that the Rangers lament the trade ever so slightly. The 21-year-old posted a .904 OPS at the upper levels while swatting 26 homers and adding 12 steals over 139 games. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Saggese is not a household name, but he's not getting nearly enough attention for his skill set. He can handle both second and third base, and there's a chance for 55-grade (above-average) power and hit tools at the highest level. There are certainly hitters with more upside than the 21-year-old, but there's a solid ceiling here with a high floor. It's not hard to see Saggese being a quality MLB regular in the coming campaigns. 

Victor Scott, OF: Everyone knew Scott could run with the best of them when he was selected in the 5th round of 2022, but he's shown that he's much more than just a runner in his short time in the St. Louis system. He hit .303/.369/.425 while picking up 39 extra-base hits and reaching Double-A Springfield, and he was a deserved selection to the Futures Game over the summer. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Oh yeah, he also stole 94 bases. Scott is a legitimate 80-grade runner, and it helps him beat out grounders, get to pretty much everything in the outfield and obviously swipe bases with the best of them. The question is if he can make enough hard contact to maximize those tools — at least offensively, of course — but there should be enough pop to at least put the ball in the gap and let those wheels fly. A loss of athleticism would see Scott's stock drop considerably, but that shouldn't happen anytime soon. He's really fun. 

Jimmy Crooks, C: It seems like the Cardinals have a prospect like Crooks every year, but that's not in insult to the backstop. The 2022 fourth-round pick put together a strong 2023 campaign with a slash line of .273/.358/.433 while adding 12 homers over 413 at-bats for High-A Peoria. 

Level of optimism: Moderate. Crooks is hitter with solid power in his left-handed bat, and he's shown an ability to reach via walk, something he's done 64 times over his first 138 professional games. He's also very likely to remain behind the plate as a plus receiver with a similarly-graded arm, and he'll need to remain a catcher to provide any sort of significant value. This very well could be the Cardinals catcher of the future, and yes, I know that's been said for a lot of names over the last few seasons. 

Three Down 

Michael McGreevy, RHP: The Cardinals used the 18th pick of the 2021 draft to select McGreevy, and so far it's been a mixed bag at best for the former UC Santa Barbara hurler. The 2023 season saw more bad than good, as he forged a 4.12 ERA and 123/38 K/BB over 153 innings — 134.1 of those with Triple-A Memphis. 

Level of concern: Moderate. McGreevy looked like a high-floor hurler coming out of college, and there's still reason to believe he has that in him as a right-hander with the ability to throw four pitches for strikes with quality command on top of control. None of those offerings are plus, however, and he has fanned just 247 hitters in 305 innings. McGreevy absolutely has a chance to be a starter in the majors, but expecting anything more than backend production is probably expecting too much. 

Joshua Baez, OF: The Cardinals added Baez a round after they added McGreevy, and the outfielder didn't have much success in his first full season. He appeared in 91 games for Low-A Palm Beach, and the 20-year-old slashed an uninspiring .218/.341/.383 over 298 at-bats in the Florida State League. 

Level of concern: Moderate-to-high. Baez won't turn 21 until the end of June, and the outfielder does have an intriguing skill set with plus power and solid speed along with a 70-grade throwing arm. None of that matters much if you can't put the ball into play, and Baez struck out an untenable 122 times over those 298 at-bats for the Low-A Cardinals last year. He did draw a respectable 45 walks over his 91 contests, but the amount of volatility here is quite palpable. 

Gordon Graceffo, RHP: Graceffo entered 2023 as one of my personal favorite pitching prospects, but unfortunately, the year was not a step in the right direction for the right-hander. He was limited to just 86 innings while dealing with shoulder inflammation, and his 4.92 ERA and 81:45 K:BB weren't exactly inspiring when he was on the bump. 

Level of concern: Moderate-to-low. When Graceffo is at his best, he's a right-hander with four pitches that flash at least above-average, and he has the ability to locate them to any part of the plate. That command wasn't apparent in 2023, and the stuff didn't have nearly as much consistency as it did during his breakout 2022 campaign, when he posted a 2.97 ERA and 139:28 K:BB in 139.1 frames. I'll bet on at least a moderate bounceback for Graceffo in 2024, but there's obviously less excitement as there was coming into last year's campaign.