Top MLB Win Total Bets For 2023

Top MLB Win Total Bets For 2023

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Picks: Win Total Bets For 2023

With the dust now settled on the World Baseball Classic, it's time to shift our betting focus to the 2023 major-league season. Here are 10 MLB win totals plays -- five overs, five unders -- that are worth considering before the first real pitch is thrown on Thursday, March 30.

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MLB Win Totals - Overs to Bet Now

Toronto Blue Jays (o91.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Pay no mind to all of those trashed tickets that had the Jays claiming the AL East crown in 2022. They still got to 92 regular-season wins and the top AL Wild Card seed, and they put a bit of heat on the 99-win Yankees down the stretch. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can be better, and almost certainly will be better. The same goes for Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer and Matt Chapman. To great surprise, not one Blue Jays regular had an OPS north of .820 last year. Bank on that changing, with newcomers Daulton Varsho and Brandon Belt offering further surge potential. Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios form an impressive foundation in the starting rotation -- maybe the most solid top-four of any rotation in the American League. This squad is well-rounded at its core, with pockets of projectable greatness.

Chicago White Sox (o82.5 at Caesars Sportsbook)

They badly underperformed on the whole last year, but the White Sox had terrible luck on the health front and have made it through camp this spring with mostly good news from the medical bay. Luis Robert carries MVP upside, Eloy Jimenez can be one of the game's premier sluggers and Tim Anderson remains a dynamic talent at the shortstop position. None of the three appeared in more than 100 games last year, but all of them now bring injury-free statuses into the 2023 campaign. Dylan Cease is coming off a second-place finish for the AL Cy Young Award, Lance Lynn is still a workhorse at age 35 and Lucas Giolito almost has to improve on what he was in 2022. Michael Kopech gives breakout vibes following offseason surgery to repair a lingering right knee injury. They can hit and they can pitch if the durability allows.

Los Angeles Angels (o82.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Maybe this is the year that the Angels finally meet expectations, or rather exceed them, and thrust Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani onto the grand MLB stage where they belong. We just got a dose of it in the World Baseball Classic -- who doesn't want more of that brand of excitement? The middle infield situation is still kind of confounding, but the lineup could run deep if Anthony Rendon manages to steer clear of the IL and offseason addition Hunter Renfroe is able to do his dinger thing out in Anaheim. Reid Detmers and Patrick Sandoval are up-and-coming starters, and Tyler Anderson was brought in this winter to solidify the rotation mix after delivering a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178.2 innings last season for the crosstown Dodgers. Pushing aside the impending Ohtani free agency bonanza, 83 wins should be fully doable. Should be.

Baltimore Orioles (o76.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

The books are calling for a letdown in 2023 after the O's became one of the great surprise stories in baseball last year en route to 83 wins and a second-half push toward postseason contention. There are valid data points that hint at regression, but it's more of an over-arching argument, and the blossoming individual talent here should at least keep the boat afloat as Baltimore efforts to turn the tide on its latest rebuild. A full year of Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson? Yes, please. Grayson Rodriguez in the Opening Day rotation? Love to see it. Some patchwork areas remain on the roster, the remnants of the previous era and a lack of financial backing from ownership, but this team can hopefully sail around relevance in the first half and improve along the way. All we're asking for is .500 ball. Actually, we're not even asking for that.

Arizona Diamondbacks (o75.5 at BetMGM)

Something's happening down in the desert. It could be a while before the Diamondbacks are able to launch themselves into the NL West title conversation with the Dodgers and Padres, but something is definitely happening. Corbin Carroll, one of the top prospects in all of baseball, hit to an .830 OPS over his first 115 major-league plate appearances in 2022 before landing an eight-year, $111 million contract extension this spring. Jake McCarthy, a budding fantasy gem, finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year vote last year. Carson Kelly's forearm fracture could truly unlock Gabriel Moreno, a 23-year-old catcher who showed tremendous offensive potential in the upper reaches of the Blue Jays' minor-league system. Ketel Marte. Zac Gallen. And soon Brandon Pfaadt. Let's not talk about the bullpen -- hopefully, that can be sorted out on the fly.

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MLB Win Totals - Unders to Bet Now

St. Louis Cardinals (u89.5 at Caesars Sportsbook)

89.5 is a little heavy for a team that signed Willson Contreras in early December and then curiously decided to sit out the remainder of the offseason. The lineup might really rake, especially if Jordan Walker can immediately emerge as a middle-of-the-order presence behind perennial MVP candidates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. And if Lars Nootbaar gaining global stardom in the WBC translates back to MLB. But what are we to make of a starting rotation that will feature Adam Wainwright and his mid-80s fastball on Opening Day? Miles Mikolas led the way last year with a 3.29 ERA in 202.1 innings, but he did so with a 6.81 K/9. Steven Matz threw only 48 innings and Jack Flaherty offered just 36. That all said, the Brewers (85.5) and Cubs (77.5) also feel like smart under bets. Somebody has to win the NL Central.

Cleveland Guardians (u86.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

As the White Sox and Twins flopped around last year, the Guardians went ahead and elected themselves American League Central champions. Or something to that effect. Jose Ramirez is an absolute superstar, and maybe there is a case to be made that Cleveland's contact-based offensive approach is going to pair well with the new pitch clock. But the most effective MLB lineups are always going to be the most powerful MLB lineups, and adding Josh Bell and Mike Zunino doesn't move the needle quite enough for the Guards' particular plan of attack. Can the bullpen repeat last year's lights-out numbers? Does the starting rotation have meaningful depth beyond Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie? Even one bad injury could be a crushing blow to a roster makeup that reads -- on paper, at least -- as extremely top-heavy.

San Francisco Giants (u81.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

It's an organization with a tendency to surprise, but the Giants are lacking the necessary props to pull off a magic trick in 2023. Michael Conforto is about the only bat to dream on for star-level production, and he missed the entire 2022 season while recovering from shoulder surgery. Brandon Crawford is a 36-year-old shortstop with a left knee that continues to bark. Joc Pederson possesses solid raw power but often looks lost against left-handed pitching. LaMonte Wade, the projected leadoff man, slashed .207/.305/.359 last season. The rotation, outside of Logan Webb, trends more toward mediocre than good. All elements combined, and with some durability issues sprinkled in, this does not meet the eye as an operation that will reach the .500 mark. The more likely outcome is that a bad first half kicks off a sort of rolling rebuild.

Boston Red Sox (u78.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

The situation in Boston is already ugly amid a growing lack of trust between the fanbase and ownership, and it threatens to get even uglier in 2023. Corey Kluber, as he enters his age-37 campaign, is probably not the answer for last year's spotty-at-best consistency in the starting rotation. Chris Sale, having logged only 11 major-league starts since the end of the 2019 season, still has a lot of proving to do. Garrett Whitlock is fun to speculate on, but he remains in build-up mode here in late March following right hip surgery. The ink is dry on the Rafael Devers extension, but he's going to be asked to carry a heavy load for that offense. Masataka Yoshida may need to find his way right out of the gate, which is a lofty expectation for a first-year Japanese hitter. Even the ceiling seems rather low for what this Red Sox team could be.

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Colorado Rockies (u66.0 at Caesars Sportsbook)

MLB's new rule changes are designed to drive up offense. More contact, more balls in play, more ducks on the pond, a quicker pace. Did anyone consult the Rockies? Do they even have a seat at Rob Manfred's table? Coors Field is already a nightmare for pitchers -- breaking balls don't break and it can be difficult to catch your breath between full-effort offerings -- so 2023 could bring a horror show to Denver. Thoughts and prayers to the fellas who have to grace that Colorado mound for half of their outings. The first year of Kris Bryant's seven-year, $182 million contract was a disaster -- he appeared in only 42 games -- and plantar fasciitis is not something that can simply be wished away. The injury bug has already hit hard in camp, taking out both Brendan Rodgers (shoulder) and Sean Bouchard (biceps) for perhaps the entire season.

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Drew Silva
Drew spent 15 years at NBC/Rotoworld, eventually rising to the role of Senior MLB Writer. He is now a beautiful butterfly. Follow him on Twitter: @drewsilv
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