This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
Brooklyn (-8.5) at Detroit
Dallas (-4) at Oklahoma City
New Orleans at San Antonio (-2.5), o/u 219
Minnesota at Portland (pick'em)
Orlando at Los Angeles (-11)
A lot of totals weren't available at the time of writing, but there are a few games that stand out as positive environments for offensive production. The only team that plays at a faster pace than the Timberwolves on the slate are the Lakers. With the line in Portland-Minnesota roughly even, that could be another spot to target.
The San Antonio-New Orleans matchup features a lot of similar favorable factors, highlighted by a projected close contest paired with one team (the Spurs) who usually operate quickly.
Most of the other contests carry appeal based on injury news, but aren't necessarily spots to focus on based on projected game script.
Injury Situations to Monitor
Paul Millsap, BRO (personal): OUT
James Johnson has seen a consistent role for the last three weeks and that should continue in Millsap's absence. Nicolas Claxton could also benefit, though his performances haven't been particularly fantasy relevant so far.
James Harden, BRO (rest): OUT
Harden is drawing his first rest day of the season. That should leave more minutes, ball-handling duties and usage for the trio of Jevon Carter, Patty Mills and Cam Thomas.
Jerami Grant, DET (thumb): OUT
Grant is out for an extended period after suffering torn ligaments in his right thumb. Trey Lyles should enter the starting lineup, with the potential for Josh Jackson to also see his minutes rise.
Luka Doncic, DAL (ankle): OUT
Doncic rolled his ankle Friday and has already been ruled out. Jalen Brunson should enter the starting lineup.
D'Angelo Russell, MIN (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Russell practiced Saturday, and it looks though he should be in line to return from a three-game absence. With both Russell and Beverley back in action, Taurean Prince would likely exit the starting five.
Damian Lillard, POR (abdomen): QUESTIONABLE
Lillard is considered a game-time decision after receiving a cortisone injection Friday. The hope is he'll be able to return, but it's unclear whether that will happen.
Cody Zeller, POR (knee): OUT
Zeller suffered a small right patellar fracture and will be out for a week. Larry Nance should slide into backup minutes at both power forward and center.
Anthony Davis, LAL (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Davis missed Friday, but could comes back tonight. If he remains out, Dwight Howard should draw the start at center.
Other notable injuries:
Joe Harris, BRO (ankle): OUT
Kelly Olynyk, DET (knee): OUT
Sterling Brown, DAL (foot): QUESTIONABLE
Willie Cauley-Stein, DAL (personal): OUT
CJ McCollum, POR (lung): OUT
LeBron James, LAL (abdomen): PROBABLE
Elite Players
Injuries dominate this slate, particularly among star and the high-salaried players. Kevin Durant ($11,000) should be the building block of cash game lineups due to the increased offensive responsibility he'll carry in the absence of Harden. Even with The Beard on the floor, Durant has reached 50 DK points in five of his last eight games and production that would be just fine at his value.
LeBron James ($10,800) is the other elite option I would gravitate to on the slate. His value is on the rise, which is always a bit concerning. But like Durant, he's been in good recent form despite his salary by reaching 50 DK points in seven of his last 10 contests. KD is likely to be the better projected play due to the absence of Harden, but James isn't far behind.
Expected Chalk
Durant should be chalk for all of the reasons discussed above. Some other players who should get plenty of attention include:
In the four games Doncic has missed this season, Jalen Brunson ($5,300) has topped 40 points on three occasions. In the other, he reached 31.3 points and that would still be plenty to provide value. That will attract a high roster rate and also make Brunson one of the best value plays.
Trey Lyles ($3,500) posted 24.75 DK points in the absence of Jerami Grant on Saturday. His success combined with the fact his salary didn't rise in a meaningful way will have a lot of managers focused on him.
Larry Nance ($3,800) should soak up minutes with Zeller out. If Nance becomes chalk, he's a decent fade in GPP contests as he's often produced little even with significant minutes. That will be particularly true if Lillard suits up.
Value Plays
Perhaps Kristaps Porzingis ($8,000) belongs in the Elite Players section. But regardless, he's an interesting play with Doncic sidelined. The primary downside to playing Porzingis is the potential slow pace of the matchup, but he posted 48, 49 and 42 DK points in the three November games Doncic has missed.
Portland offers the potential for plenty of value. If Lillard is out, Nassir Little ($3,900), Anfernee Simons ($5,100) and Norman Powell ($6,200) should see big roles. The value proposition that each presents is a bit different. Should Lillard continue to be sidelined, Little and Simons will likely become chalk plays. That could leave Powell less rostered and therefore a nice GPP play, but his recent spike in value is troubling. Simons appears to present the best value regardless of Lillard's status as either a decent cash game selection or solid GPP play since many will likely be scared off him due to a less secure role.
Cam Thomas ($3,500) has quietly seen a consistent workload across Brooklyn's last six outings and should get the green light to be more involved in the offense with Harden sidelined. The downside to his game is that he doesn't do much other than score. So if Thomas's shot is off, the production isn't likely to be there. The same analysis also applies to Patty Mills ($4,900).
As noted in the intro, New Orleans-San Antonio could be an interesting game to stack in GPPs. There's interesting talent up and down the rosters, with Brandon Ingram ($9,000), Josh Hart ($6,000) and Herbert Jones ($4,100) a trio of boom-bust options from the Pelicans.
