This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
WAS vs. PHI (-6.5), O/U: 229.5
ATL vs. NY (-1.5), O/U: 208
MEM vs. UTA (-9.5), O/U: 225.5
DAL vs. LAC (-7), O/U: 217
The big news on the slate is the status of Joel Embiid, who's considered doubtful after injuring his knee in the first quarter of Game 4 on Monday. Assuming he is ruled out, the WAS-PHI matchup becomes the most appealing target on the slate. Both sides have players in great spots for a game that should be fast-paced and competitive with the Wizards fighting to stave off elimination.
Despite its low total, the ATL-NY matchup is another good target, as it's the only game that features a close spread, and both teams play condensed and relatively predictable minutes. Yesterday's slate highlighted the importance of targeting competitive games when the Nuggets and Trail Blazers went to double-overtime, while the other two games blew out.
It seems reasonable to fade the studs in the DAL-LAC matchup. DraftKings finally raised the salaries of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to more appropriate values, while spending up for Luka Doncic feels risky after the Mavericks were blown out in Game 4. However, I'd expect other people to have a similar opinion, which would make it a nice spot to get leverage in tournaments if you think Dallas keeps it close.
Injuries to Monitor
Joel Embiid (knee): DOUBTFUL
Embiid aggravated his lingering knee injury after taking a hard fall in the first quarter of Monday's game. He had an MRI yesterday and is considered doubtful for tonight. If he misses, Mike Scott would likely get the start at center while Dwight Howard would see a bump in minutes off the bench.
Davis Bertans (calf): OUT
Bertans will miss 4-6 weeks after being diagnosed with a Grade 2 calf strain. Raul Neto will likely move back into the starting lineup, while Rui Hachimura's minutes should be more secure at power forward.
Elite Players
Guard:
Russell Westbrook ($11,400)
Westbrook is coming off a big triple-double that helped the Wizards pull off the upset in Game 4 on Monday to avoid elimination. He put up a 19/21/14 line on his way to 72.75 DK points, despite shooting just 3-19 from the field. Joel Embiid's likely absence would make it easier for him to grab rebounds and score at the rim tonight. Assuming Embiid is out, Russ will be a priority for me tonight.
G/F:
Luka Doncic ($10,800)
Doncic scored only 36 DK in 36 minutes on Sunday as the Mavericks were blown out in Game 4. It feels like people will be quick to jump off him and roster Westbrook, especially with the Mavericks bigger underdogs than the Wizards tonight. Doncic is always appealing when he isn't going to be as popular. He put up 71.5, 61.25 and 71.75 fantasy points in the first three games of the series, and that type of score would bring considerable leverage if some of the chalkier spend-up options fail.
SF:
Kawhi Leonard ($9,600)
Kawhi has now scored at least 55 DK points in all four games of the series after a dominant performance on both sides of the ball in Sunday's blowout win. He has been among the chalkier players on all four slates, but now his salary has reached a point that should give some pause. Add to that the blowout risk in tonight's matchup with the Clippers favored by seven at home, and I'd expect him to go somewhat overlooked tonight.
PF/C:
Julius Randle ($9,000)
Opposite to Kawhi, Randle has seen his salary drop to its lowest point in 10 games. He's coming off a 23/10/7 line that helped him put up 50 DK points even though the Knicks got blown out on Sunday. I'd expect him to be a popular option tonight with the series back in New York and the Knicks fighting to stave off elimination.
Expected Chalk
Tobias Harris ($7,800), if Joel Embiid is out
Harris would be a relatively popular option tonight even if Embiid were healthy after topping 45 DK points in three of four series games thus far. With Embiid likely out tonight, the Sixers will rely even more on Harris for scoring and rebounding. The matchup against Washington is ideal for producing fantasy points. He's seen a modest salary increase, but it's still too cheap for his projected role in this spot. I'd expect him and Westbrook to be a popular pairing.
Value Picks
Donovan Mitchell ($8,200)
Mitchell is coming off 49.5 DK points as the Jazz beat the Grizzlies for the third consecutive time on Monday. Encouragingly, he saw his minutes bumped up to 35. He's scored 40+ fantasy points in back-to-back games and had the potential to do much better had he not shot a combined 17-45 from the field and 4-17 from three-point range. A ceiling game is coming at some point in the near future.
Ben Simmons ($8,100)
Foul trouble prevented Simmons from having a big game on Monday as he put up a double-double and 35.5 fantasy points in just 25 minutes. He put up 50+ in the first two games of the series and could go somewhat overlooked tonight after consecutive underwhelming performances. He should see a bump in scoring and rebounding in the absence of Embiid.
Derrick Rose ($7,300)
Rose only played 33 minutes on Sunday as the Knicks got blown out, but he played 38+ in each of the first three games of the series. He's seen his salary rise all the way from $5,500 in Game 1, and that's likely to keep his popularity down tonight. He should see 40 minutes and take 20+ shots with the Knicks needing a win at home to extend the series.
Rui Hachimura ($4,800)
Hachimura is coming off a monster performance on Monday with 20 points and 13 rebounds, helping him to 45.75 DK points in 42 minutes. He really benefited from Joel Embiid not being on the floor as rebounding and scoring around the basket is easier without a dominant big man in the middle. I'd expect him to be quite popular tonight, assuming Embiid is ruled out.
Daniel Gafford ($4,700)
Gafford moved into the starting lineup for Game 4 on Monday and, despite early foul trouble, played 26 minutes, blocked five shots and put up 29 DK points. His ceiling is much higher than tonight if Embiid sits as he would benefit in the same way as Hachimura. I'd expect him to be popular as well.
