DraftKings NBA: Weekend Value Plays

DraftKings NBA: Weekend Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.

Injuries Situations to Monitor

With Philly's Jahlil Okafor (shin) likely to miss at least one more game, a slew of 76ers pick up extra value for Friday's favorable matchup against the Nets. Nerlens Noel ($6,100) is the obvious beneficiary, but Okafor's absence also gives a nice boost to Jerami Grant ($5,200) and even Ish Smith ($6,800), as the rookie center accounts for a huge portion of his team's shots when he's healthy. Okafor ranks 39th in the NBA in usage rate, with his 24.9 percent mark putting him in the same territory as Brook Lopez (25.7) and Nikola Vucevic (25.2). A Smith-Noel combo makes a ton of sense for Friday and might even be a nice option for Saturday's more difficult matchup with the Pistons.

Friday's New Orleans-Memphis game pits two injury-ravaged teams that could provide a ton of value. On the New Orleans side, another Norris Cole (back) absence would help Jrue Holiday ($8,300), Anthony Davis ($9,800) and Toney Douglas ($3,700), all of whom easily outperformed their price tags while logging 35+ minutes Wednesday in Charlotte. Even if Cole plays, Holiday and Davis will still be solid options, though Douglas would probably drop from consideration. The Pelicans also have a Saturday game in Milwaukee, giving us a second chance to take advantage of their injury-depleted roster.

For the Grizzlies, both Mike Conley (foot) and Zach Randolph (knee) are uncertain, and Mario Chalmers (foot) is now out for the year. If Conley sits again, Lance Stephenson ($4,400) could run some point, with Vince Carter ($4,600) and Tony Allen ($4,800) both candidates to crack 30 minutes while getting increased usage. Memphis did just sign point guards Briante Weber and Ray McCallum, which means there's no sure option among the bunch, though Stephenson and Allen offer considerable upside. As for the Memphis big men, JaMychal Green ($5,700) is no longer a must-play at his new price, but he'll still be a solid option if Randolph can't suit up. The Grizzlies do play another game Saturday in Atlanta, though the ample blowout potential and tougher opponent combine to damper the outlook for most Memphis players.

Last but not least, Elfrid Payton (elbow) is uncertain for Friday's 10:00 p.m. EST contest in Sacramento, with the elite matchup providing no shortage of potential fantasy goodness. Brandon Jennings ($3,500) may seem like the obvious play, but he only logged four minutes in Orlando's last contest and is averaging just 15.4 minutes per game over the last five. C.J. Watson ($3,400) has averaged 23.2 minutes per game over that span, possibly setting him up to replace Payton in the starting lineup Friday night. Of course, Victor Oladipo ($7,200) might be the largest beneficiary, with a Payton absence likely leading to increased ball-handling responsibility for Orlando's starting two-guard.

Point Guard

Derrick Rose, CHI (Fri. vs. MIA), $6,200

According to NBAwowy.com, Rose has produced 0.83 DK points per minute in his 1,174 minutes playing alongside Jimmy Butler (knee) this season, compared to 1.08 ppm in 523 minutes with Butler off the court. This essentially makes Rose an elite option any time his usual backcourt mate is sidelined, even for difficult matchups like Friday's against Miami. Rose's price rose all the way up to $7,300 during Butler's recent prolonged absence, but the former MVP can now be had for just $6,200. Though not officially ruled out as of Friday morning, Butler is considered doubtful to play.

Other options: Stephen Curry, GSW (Fri. vs. POR, Sat. vs. PHO), $10,300; Damian Lillard, POR (Fri. at GS, Sat. vs. ORL), $9,800; Kemba Walker, CHA (Fri. vs. DET, Sat. vs. HOU), $8,600; Ish Smith, PHI (Fri. vs. BKN, Sat. vs. DET), $6,800; Marcus Smart, BOS (Fri. vs. HOU), $4,300

Shooting Guard

Avery Bradley, BOS (Fri. vs. HOU), $4,700

Boston's recent schedule has been unusually awful for fantasy production, with the last 10 contests including six games against teams that rank 25th or lower in pace. Unsurprisingly, Bradley's production and price have both dropped dramatically during this stretch, with his price reaching a likely nadir of $4,700 just in time for an excellent matchup against the Rockets. Bradley still gets minutes in the mid-30s most nights, and he's averaging 25.2 DK points in 33.3 minutes per game this season. He can reasonably be projected for around six DK points per $1,000 of Friday salary.

Other options: Victor Oladipo, ORL (Fri. at SAC, Sat. at POR), $7,200; C.J. McCollum, POR (Fri. at GSW, Sat. vs. ORL), $7,100; Zach LaVine, MIN (Fri. at OKC), $5,900; Evan Fournier, ORL (Fri. at SAC, Sat. at POR), $5,900

Small Forward

Rudy Gay, SAC (Fri. vs. ORL, Sun. vs. UTA), $6,000

Gay recorded 41 minutes and 37.5 DK points in each of his last two games – and that was with DeMarcus Cousins (suspension) in the lineup. Cousins' suspension is only for one game, but it still makes Gay one of the top plays at any position Friday night, with teammates Rajon Rondo ($7,800), Darren Collison ($4,800) and Kosta Koufos ($3,000) also getting a boost. Gay is a bit underpriced even before we consider Cousins' absence, as the veteran small forward averages 31.9 DK points over 34.1 minutes per game. Gay should get minutes in the high-30s or low-40s against Orlando, and he's produced 1.05 DK points per minute (in 612 min.) with Cousins off the court this season (per NBAwowy.com). However there should be better options for Sunday, as Cousins will be back in the lineup for a nightmare matchup against the Jazz.

Other options: Carmelo Anthony, NYK (Fri. at LAC, Sun. at LAL), $8,500; Gordon Hayward, UTA (Fri. vs. WAS, Sun. at SAC), $6,900; Robert Covington, PHI (Fri. vs. BKN, Sat. vs. DET), $6,500; Jae Crowder, BOS (Fri. vs. HOU), $5,500

Power Forward

Thaddeus Young, BKN (Fri. at PHI, Sun. vs. MIL), $6,600

Young draws a top-notch matchup Friday night, facing the fast-paced, defense-averse 76ers in what should be a close game. The usual blowout concerns with these two teams don't apply, as the Sixers are only 2.5-point underdogs for a game in Philadelphia. Young should also draw favorable individual matchups, as Jahlil Okafor's (shin) likely absence will leave Nerlens Noel with the primary responsibility of defending Brook Lopez, which should allow Young to feast on the likes of Jeremi Grant, Robert Covington and Carl Landry. Assuming he stays out of foul trouble, Young should see minutes in the mid-30s, possibly even approaching 40.

Other options: Anthony Davis, NOP (Fri. at MEM, Sat. at MIL), $9,800; Draymond Green, GSW (Fri. vs. POR, Sat. vs. PHO), $8,000; Nerlens Noel, PHI (Fri. vs. BKN, Sat. vs. DET), $6,100; Taj Gibson, CHI (Fri. vs. MIA), $4,400; Jason Smith, ORL (Fri. at SAC, Sat. at POR), $3,500

Center

Andre Drummond, DET (Fri. at CHA, Sat. at PHI), $7,900

Overpriced for much of the season due to his unsustainable production over the first few weeks, Drummond has now fallen all the way back in the other direction, lingering in the $7,500-$8,000 range since the beginning of March. He'll probably creep back over $8,000 for Saturday's elite matchup with the 76ers, but even if the price jump is significant, he'll be an excellent option for that contest. As for Friday, the matchup isn't particularly enticing, yet it's still tough to pass on Drummond at $7,900 when you see that he's averaging 43.4 DK points per game this season – which works out to 5.5 DK points per $1,000 of salary.

Other options: Hassan Whiteside, MIA (Fri. at CHI, Sat. at TOR), $8,200; Dwight Howard, HOU (Fri. at BOS, Sat. at CHA), $8,100; Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN (Fri. at OKC), $7,900; Brook Lopez, BKN (Fri. at PHI, Sun. vs. MIL), $7,800; Jared Sullinger, BOS (Fri. vs. HOU), $5,800; Steven Adams, OKC (Fri. vs. MIN, Sat. at SA), $4,000; Kosta Koufos, SAC (Fri. vs. ORL, Sun. vs. UTA), $3,000

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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