This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
I couldn't have really asked for a better day Saturday as Clint Capela annihilated his double-double prop bet and all four of the best bets hit. If not for Keldon Johnson dropping the ball we would have had a perfect day altogether, so we'll hope for another solid day this go around. 10 games on Wednesday's slate opens up a bunch of different prop-bet possibilities and I think there are enough "locks" that you could make a realistic parlay or two, particularly if you factor in some gimme spreads.
Points Props
Evidently, DraftKings felt particularly ambitious with a number of their point prop bets because I think there's a handful of "unders" that make sense. I hate to target a guy that has done so well for us as of late, but taking the under on Malcolm Brogdon's 22.5 points (-115) sure feels like easy money when you consider the Mavs allow the third-fewest points to PGs in the NBA. The 28-year-old has also been under that figure in three of the last five games and both of those "overs" were against teams who are miserable defensively.
I also like the under on Josh Okogie's 7.5 points (+104), mainly because the odds are so nice. Either due to his hamstring injury or just overall ineffectiveness, Okogie has averaged just 23 minutes and 4.3 points over his last three starts and the Magic also tend to play well against SFs, allowing the seventh-fewest points to the position. Don't toss it into a parlay, but if you're looking at plus-money props, that one feels like the easiest target.
If you do want to find a parlay filler, look no further than under 8.5 points for Tristan Thompson's (-134) point total. Especially with Joel Embiid playing at his All-NBA level this year, I just don't see a way in which Thompson gets close to that total, particularly when he's playing around 21 minutes on average over the last four games.
Perhaps my favorite bet of the day is actually an over pertaining to D'Angelo Russell's 23.5 points (-125). Generally speaking, I tend to stay away from large points figures from stars just because there's more volatility game-to-game, but in this case, I really don't see a way in which the 218.5 O/U comes into play unless Russell goes off. Thankfully, the Magic allow the third-most points to PGs across the league and no Karl Anthony-Towns (COVID-19) just puts more of the offensive onus on the 2015 No. 2 overall pick.
Rebounds/Assists Props
To be honest, there weren't any "noticeable" rebounds/assists prop bets that jumped out, so I wanted to hammer home a few points/assists/rebounds (PRA for short) props that make sense instead.
I don't know when DraftKings will get it right with Jerami Grant's totals, but it certainly isn't Wednesday. We've been able to target the overs plenty of times and while I think the sportsbook has finally gotten close to an appropriate point total (o/u 22.5), there's plenty of room for the 30.5 PRA over to hit (-125). Grant has hit that over in five of the last six games and to help matters more, the Hawks are top-10 in terms of rebounds allowed to small forwards.
There's a bit of a sweet spot we've developed over the last couple of weeks targeting the over on small forwards who play a lot of minutes and find themselves in favorable situations. OG Anunoby, Jerami Grant, De'Andre Hunter, and now....Mikal Bridges. There's nothing wrong with taking Bridges 13.5 point over for plus money (+104), but I think the rebounds makes his PRA over (19.5, -114) a pretty easy mark to hit.
If I felt a bit better about Patrick Beverley's minutes I'd make the 16.5 PRA over (-110) one of the easiest locks of the night, but as it stands I still think it's worth mentioning. The Kings are dreadful against opposing PGs allowing the most points and second-most assists throughout the season and even if Beverly were to play close to his season average in minutes (26.4), I think this bet has the chance of hitting. No Lou Williams (hip) would likely bump that total even higher basically all but assuring the over.
Best Bets
- Josh Okogie under 7.5 points (+104)
- Tristan Thompson under 8.5 points/Nets win (+108)
- Mikal Bridges over 19.5 points/rebounds/assists (-114)
- D'Angelo Russell over 23.5 points (-125)
