This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
There's still one game to play, but the Celtics' Game 5 win in Miami had the feel of a potential knockout blow. The Heat have been held to just 162 total points in the last two games, with Jimmy Butler particularly seeing a downturn offensively in that span. Boston had pretty much rendered Miami a DFS wasteland with its defensive effort the last two contests, and considering the TD Garden setting of Friday's potential elimination game, there could well be similar results.
With just one game on the ledger, we're dealing with FanDuel's single-game contest rosters, which are comprised as follows:
· MVP- (Garners points at 2x the normal rate)
· STAR- (Garners points at 1.5x the normal rate)
· PRO- (Garners points at 1.2x the normal rate)
· Two Utility spots- (Garner points at normal rate)
With the valuation also being different than in conventional FanDuel contests on multi-game slates and top players inevitably headed for heavy rostering, there are definitely strategic elements particular to single-game lineups. Finding key value plays for the two utility spots is undoubtedly key, as it enables you to fill out the multiplier spots with some of the top projected producers.
Slate Overview
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (-8.5) (Projected total: 201.0 points)
The Celtics' status as heavy favorites is particularly noteworthy for a postseason do-or-die scenario against the conference's top seed, but it speaks to Boston's pretty thorough domination of Miami the last two games. As mentioned earlier, the Heat have been an offensive/DFS wasteland as a result, with Butler shooting 7-for-32 over the last two games and Bam Adebayo unable to maintain game-to-game consistency. The remaining members of Miami's rotation have also been DFS wildcards for the most part, especially against Boston's suffocating defense.
In contrast, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart, when healthy, have been highly reliable DFS options throughout the series with rare exception. Al Horford has also been an asset as a scorer, rebounder or both while contributing multiple blocks in three straight. While Friday's spread does imply a potential pull-away victory for Boston, and in turn, potentially abbreviated minutes for some of the team's stars, the body of work thus far in this series supports the notion of some strong individual performances.
Positional Breakdown
FanDuel single-game rosters don't have traditional positions that match those on a starting five, so we'll instead break down some candidates for the top three multiplier positions:
MVP (2x): Jayson Tatum ($16,000) and Jimmy Butler ($15,000) remain as the clear-cut top candidates for this spot.
Tatum has scored 40.5 to 51.1 FD points in four of the first five games of the series, with a Game 3 clunker the only exception. While that outlier did occur at TD Garden, Tatum should naturally once again boast sky-high usage in such a critical game for Boston.
Butler's struggles over the last two games have already been detailed, but his upside is undeniable and he is likely to take his game to another level with the Heat's backs against the wall. Butler still produced 35.2 FD points in Game 5 despite the highly inefficient night, and he also recorded tallies of 78.3 and 40.7 in Games 1 and 2 of the series.
STAR (1.5x): Whichever of the two mega-stars mentioned above doesn't make your MVP spot is naturally the prime candidate here, but a case could also reasonably be made for Jaylen Brown ($14,000), Al Horford ($13,000) and Bam Adebayo ($12,500).
Brown bounced back from his one poor shooting night of the series in Game 4 to generate 33.3 FD points on a 10-for-19 tally from the floor in Game 5, and he's averaging 37.1 FD points per game overall in the series.
Horford just delivered 39.9 FD points in Game 5, and he'd produced 47.3 and 37.1 FD points in the two prior games as well. His propensity to supplement his production with defensive stats is certainly a plus, and dating back to Game 1 of the semifinal-round series versus the Bucks, he's putting up 38.6 FD points per game on 52.5 percent shooting, including 44.7 percent from distance.
Adebayo has been neutralized at times by Horford and Robert Williams, but he is coming off an 18-point, 10-rebound double-double in Game 5 that produced 33.5 FD points. He also had a tally of 66 FD points in Game 3 when Butler sat out the second half, giving him the necessary ceiling for this multiplier spot.
PRO (1.2x): Whichever of the trio mentioned for the STAR position is certainly a consideration for this spot, as are Marcus Smart ($12,000) and Robert Williams ($11,500).
Smart's health will naturally have to be monitored considering his questionable status, but if he is announced as starting and without restrictions, he's a very good 1.2x multiplier candidate. The veteran defensive wizard recorded just 16 DK points in Game 5, but he logged a modest 24 minutes. However, he posted 63.8 and 27.3 FD points in Games 2 and 3, and even factoring in a handful of sub-par offensive efforts, he's putting up a solid 32.0 FD points per postseason game.
Williams is another member of the Celtics dealing with a nagging lower-body injury that has him listed as questionable, but he's certainly worth of consideration if he's announced as available. The big man has generated 28.8 to 35.3 FD points in three of the four games he's played in the series, and his ability to check off every box on the stat sheet makes him a very good cost-savings play.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following is a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Marcus Smart, BOS (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Smart were unable to go for a second straight game, Derrick White would be due for a start at point guard.
Robert Williams, BOS (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Williams has managed to play through his knee soreness the last two games, but Daniel Theis would likely draw a start at center if he were to sit.
Tyler Herro, MIA (groin)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Herro can't go, Victor Oladipo would be due to a bump in minutes off the bench.
Max Strus, MIA (hamstring)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Head coach Erik Spoelstra noted Thursday he expects Strus to be available in his usual starting role.
Kyle Lowry, MIA (hamstring)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Spoelstra also mentioned Thursday he expects Lowry to be ready.
Other notable injuries:
P.J. Tucker, MIA (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Gabe Vincent, MIA (hamstring)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Elite Players
The two highest-salaried players on the slate are Jayson Tatum ($16,000) and Jimmy Butler ($15,000). As already detailed in Positional Breakdown section, either is capable of elite production and should see very heavy usage Friday.
Expected Chalk
With only one game, the likes of Jaylen Brown ($14,000), Al Horford ($13,000) and Bam Adebayo ($12,500) should also be very popular.
Key Values
Note: On a multi-game slate, I typically try to highlight players that would be considered under-the-radar plays in this section. Naturally, with such a limited player pool, there will be very few low-rostered players that are likely to also be viable from a DFS perspective, so I'll instead focus on two of the best candidates to provide a strong return relative to salary for the two Utility spots in single-game lineups:
Derrick White, BOS ($9,000)
White has been outstanding over the last two games, averaging 34.6 FD points while drawing one spot start in Game 4 for Smart. However, White also enjoyed a robust role off the bench in Game 5 even with Smart drawing the start, and he generated 28.7 FD points over 29 minutes. White also has three other tallies of over 20 FD points since Game 4 of the semifinal-round series against the Bucks, and if Smart's minutes are limited in any way or if he misses outright, White could overdeliver nicely on his salary.
Duncan Robinson, MIA ($7,500)
Robinson has scored over 20 FD points in three of the last four games, and he's logged over 20 minutes in the last two with the Heat falling behind by significant margins in the second half. The sharpshooter can naturally rack up scoring in a hurry due with his long-distance prowess, and with Miami such a significant underdog, it's certainly possible Robinson sees another solid workload off the bench in garbage time.
Also consider: Kyle Lowry, MIA ($9,500)
