This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Saturday's slate gets started at 7:30 p.m. ET, and there's a lot to keep an eye on as games lock. So, kick back, enjoy some exciting golf in Augusta and wait for the news to come in. You can bet we'll be on top of it.
SLATE OVERVIEW
(odds are best available US odds and are subject to change)
Games to Target in BOLD
Games to Fade in ITALIC
TOR @ CLE (-3) O/U: 217
LAL @ BKN (-11.5) O/U: 228.5
SAC @ UTA (-12) O/U: 231
PHI @ OKC (+11.5) O/U: 219
HOU @ GSW (-9) O/U: 228
DET @ POR (-11.5) O/U: 224
WAS @ PHO (-11) O/U: 229
INJURIES
TOR Fred VanVleet (hip) - OUT
TOR Kyle Lowry (foot) - QUESTIONABLE
DeAndre' Bembry ($5,600) is the direct pivot for VanVleet and should start, and Malachi Flynn ($6,000) will also be in play if Lowry remains sidelined.
CLE Jarrett Allen (concussion) - OUT
CLE Larry Nance (illness) - OUT
Kevin Love ($5,800) and Dean Wade ($4,900) remain the best pivots in this scenario, although Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,100) woke up with eight points and 12 rebounds against the Thunder in the previous game. Although slightly more expensive, Taurean Prince ($6,500) is enjoying success in this scenario as well.
LAL Kyle Kuzma (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
Wesley Matthews ($4,400) would start again for the Lakers if Kuzma can't make it tonight.
UTA Jordan Clarkson (ankle) - DOUBTFUL
Clarkson's absence turned into good news for Joe Ingles ($5,200) against Portland. He's the preferred pivot and a great value at this salary.
PHI Joel Embiid (knee) QUESTIONABLE
Embiid may need to sit on this back-to-back. Tobias Harris ($7,700) receives a standard boost in this spot, and Dwight Howard ($4,300) also benefits if Embiid is out.
OKC Darius Bazley (shoulder) - PROBABLE
OKC Isaiah Roby (concussion) - OUT
OKC Luguentz Dort (concussion) - OUT
Even with Bazley's return, Kenrich Williams ($6,100) will be able to float at various positions and post an effective line.
DET Jerami Grant (knee) - OUT
DET Mason Plumlee (concussion) - QUESTIONABLE
Isaiah Stewart ($4,900) crushed value in place of Plumlee in the last game, so he's a great play if Plumlee can't go and also has some value independent of the injury. The Pistons enjoyed good performances from Saddiq Bey ($5,400) and Cory Joseph ($5,100) in Grant's absence.
POR Jusuf Nurkic (knee) - OUT
Enes Kanter ($5,000) will take over at center in a nice matchup against the Pistons at home.
WAS Bradley Beal (questionable)
Beal shot the go-ahead three-pointer in last night's win over the Warriors and looked fine, but the team won't take any chances. They'll see how he feels at the shootaround.
ELITE PLAYERS
The slate offers four players above the $10k mark, and we've already mentioned the questionable status of Joel Embiid ($10,100). We'll also need to confirm Russell Westbrook's ($11,300) availability in the back-to-back, although the Wizards would definitely need his services against the Suns. We finally have Kyrie Irving ($10,200) at five digits, and he should post a good line against the Lakers with Harden out and Kevin Durant ($8,800) still slightly limited. Stephen Curry ($10,000) is on a back-to-back, but I like him as a contrarian elite option against the Rockets.
We only have a few options in the $9k range, and Devin Booker ($9,200) is my favorite player of the group as he takes on the Wizards at home. It's also hard to ignore Damian Lillard's ($9,000) price against Detroit, and he is definitely due for a blowup game. Pascal Siakam ($8,900) is just at the cusp of $9k and is on a tremendous tear of late, and he should be able to exploit the Cleveland frontcourt tonight. I'm going to keep my exposure low to De'Aaron Fox ($9,400) against an oppressive Utah defense.
EXPECTED CHALK
Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($8,500) @ SAC
I took a chance on Mitchell in a recent back-to-back, and just like clockwork, he paid off in a big way. He's still at a laughable price on FanDuel, and as long as he stays this low, he'll be a candidate to exceed 5x value on a nightly basis. This is a very exploitable spot against the Kings, and he should have little trouble getting past Tyrese Haliburton if that's how the defensive matchup shakes down.
CJ McCollum, POR ($8,100) vs. DET
My models seem to favor McCollum in this spot, and in some instances, he's stacked with Lillard. Going with McCollum over Lillard tonight makes some sense as the Pistons continue to roll out youngsters in the backcourt. Cory Joseph is familiar with McCollum and could offer some resistance, but the Pistons are also without Jerami Grant. His absence should open up some windows for McCollum to slash inside.
Christian Wood, HOU ($7,800) @ GSW
Wood gets extra value for FanDuel thanks to a fortunate PF designation, giving us more chances to get him involved in a lineup build. The Rockets are certainly struggling, but they're catching the Warriors on a back-to-back, and that's usually a spot where Draymond Green doesn't fare as well. There's sure to be some clashes against rookie James Wiseman, but it's nothing Wood can't handle.
Ben Simmons, PHI ($7,400) @ OKC
If Joel Embiid is out, you should feel confident in calling Simmons' number against the Thunder. Although there is some blowout risk, the Thunder have managed to stay competitive with their patchwork lineup. Since Simmons can pop above 40 FP on any given night, his salary is very attractive and an excellent candidate to exceed 5x value.
Also consider: Kelly Oubre, GSW ($6,600) vs. HOU
VALUE PLAYS
The injury section is full of value options tonight, but here are some additional value plays worth considering on the slate.
Andre Drummond, LAL ($6,100) @ BKN or Moses Brown, OKC ($5,100) vs. PHI
We group these two centers together because there are qualifiers for both options. We could still see a minute limitation for Drummond, but if he starts, he should be a nice play against the Nets. Brown will be an even better option for the center spot if Joel Embiid is sidelined. These plays depend on some vigilance before game lock, but they are excellent pivots if their scenarios pan out.
Ty Jerome, OKC ($4,100) @ HOU
The Thunder continue to give the former Final Four hero plenty of minutes, and he posted a team-high 23 points in 32 minutes in OKC's last game. While Theo Maledon remains the main option at point guard, the Thunder are realizing what they have in Jerome. As long as his salary is this cheap, he should receive nightly consideration as a budget candidate.
