This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Saturday's five-game slate features a Lakers team that might be on the ropes without their two biggest stars and an inter-conference game with a potentially-high game total.
SLATE OVERVIEW
MIA (-2.5) vs. UTA O/U: 213.5
CHI (-3.5) vs. PHI O/U: 211
DAL (-4.5) vs. BOS O/U: 215.5
PHO (-4.5) vs. ATL O/U: 224
POR (-3.5) vs. LAL O/U: 219
The spreads are very narrow tonight, indicating that there will be value all over this small slate with little to no blowout risk. We're a little lighter than usual on Miami against the Jazz defense tonight, but we are very encouraged by the value available in Phoenix as the fast-paced Hawks come to town.
INJURIES
UTA Donovan Mitchell (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
UTA Royce O'Neale (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
O'Neale played on his ankle Thursday, so he will probably play Saturday. If Mitchell can't make it, Joe Ingles ($4,800) should start in his place.
MIA Kyle Lowry (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
Lowry left the game with the injury Thursday, but it didn't appear to be serious. Tyler Herro ($6,400) will be the prime beneficiary if Lowry can't make it.
PHI Tobias Harris (COVID Protocols) - OUT
PHI Furkan Korkmaz (wrist) - QUESTIONABLE
If Korkmaz is absent, a pivot for Harris becomes clearer. Georges Niang ($4,600) has been very consistent in the scenario, and Matisse Thybulle ($4,500) will continue to see a minutes increase.
BOS Jaylen Brown (hamstring) - OUT
Expect Al Horford ($7,600) and Romeo Langford to pick up the slack in the wake of Brown's absence.
LAL LeBron James (abdomen) - OUT
LAL Anthony Davis (thumb) - QUESTIONABLE
The Lakers will be in big trouble if Davis' thumb injury keeps him out Saturday. We'll discuss some possible pivots here later in the article.
ELITE PLAYERS
Anthony Davis ($10,600) tops the slate and would be a great call if he plays, but if not, Russell Westbrook ($9,600) is one of your primary elites to target. Without James and Davis, Westbrook becomes the focal point of this offense. The usage of everyone else is unpredictable and probably inconsequential for DFS purposes, as too much variance exists beyond Westbrook. Jayson Tatum ($9,500) should also be on everyone's radar due to Brown's absence. Thanks to this injury situation, Tatum's totals should see a moderate spike, making his salary that much more palatable. As usual, Joel Embiid ($9,300) is a nightly endorsement when he is under 10k, and when healthy, he's one of the best selections available at center. He's had success playing against Nikola Vucevic, so it's a green light for the big man.
EXPECTED CHALK AND CORE TARGETS
Devin Booker, PHO ($8,300) vs. ATL
We're reaching a point where Booker is hard to ignore at this salary level. His graph will always show peaks and valleys, but in the early-going, upside nights are scattered all over his game log. Many of his three-point shots are falling, and he adds close to 10 rebounds per game to pad his scoring totals. Over his past four games, he's averaging just over 45 FP per game, which is more appropriate for a player at 9k or higher.
John Collins, ATL ($6,800) @ PHO
I like players on both sides of this matchup, and Collins' salary comes in just a bit lower than how we have him projected today. Anything in the 33-35 FP range would be a great score here, but Collins has demonstrated the ability to go north of that number on a few occasions already. While we didn't mention Trae Young ($8,500) earlier, I certainly don't mind him, but the differential between Collins' and Young's points will hold a better FPPG value than the $1,700 salary differential can provide.
Marcus Smart, BOS ($5,600) @ DAL
Smart has one less person who doesn't pass the ball to worry about tonight. Ok, that's a joke at Smart's expense, but he does have an opportunity to make a point tonight against the Bulls. Tatum will absorb a lot of Brown's production, but there's no denying that Smart can provide a lot of spark when the primary playmakers are out. He's shown it over and over, season-by-season. His numbers are nothing to write home about recently, but we aren't using them as a metric in selecting him here. It's a gut call that Smart will rise to the occasion in the wake of his recent comments.
Also consider: DeMar DeRozan, CHI ($8,400)
VALUE PLAYS
Clint Capela, ATL ($6,400) @ PHO
Capela remains too inexpensive, although his usage is low enough to see why he comes in at a discount. Still, he's seeing around 30 minutes per game right now, and he's sustaining double-double numbers, especially over his past five games.
Tyrese Maxey, PHI ($5,700) @ CHI
The quandary of Maxey and Seth Curry ($5,400) reminds me a lot of the usual struggle when discerning the outcomes of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, albeit on a smaller scale. Maxey had a stellar game against Detroit last time out, but it was Curry who went off for two straight games before Maxey's good outing. There is certainly enough to go around in Philly's backcourt, so I am a fan of mixing and matching these two through my lineups tonight, with an edge to Maxey in single-entry contests.
Tim Hardaway, DAL ($5,200) vs. BOS
THJ has had a tremendous three-game run, averaging 31 FDFP over that span. With Luka Doncic struggling a bit, Hardaway has taken on a more significant role in the offense and is seeing well over 30 minutes on a nightly basis. A lot of the recent DFS attention has fallen on Jalen Brunson ($5,200), and while there's definite merit in considering him, Hardaway has the potential for a more diverse stat line.
De'Andre Hunter, ATL ($4,600) @ PHO
The overwhelming number of Atlanta selections is not meant to be a sign to stack them all, but Hunter's upside needs to be mentioned. After a slow start, Hunter's last three games have shown flashes of what he's capable of, highlighted by a 26-point performance against the Nets. His ability to go north of 20 points is very appealing with his current salary.
Also consider: Dorian Finney-Smith, DAL ($4,900), Kent Bazemore, LAL ($4,700), Mikal Bridges, PHO ($5,100)
