This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
FanDuel has excluded the early MEM/LAC game for Saturday. The main slate consists of five games and commences at 7:00 p.m. ET.
SLATE OVERVIEW
CHA (-1) vs. MIL O/U: 233.5
DET (-2) vs. ORL O/U: 210
UTA (-3.5) @ IND O/U: 220.5
BOS (-6.5) vs. NYK O/U: 209
PHO (-8.5) vs. MIA O/U: 216.5
The player pool will adjust multiple times as we get closer to lock, as several question marks exist with Indiana, Utah and Miami. While today's article serves as a primer for all of the Saturday action, the tags may not be accurate if you are reading in the afternoon. With radical changes afoot for several teams, it's imperative to check back in with the affected squads and make educated guesses about where the new values are, based on our original pivots.
INJURIES
MIL Jrue Holiday (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MIL Pat Connaughton (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MIL Grayson Allen (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MIL George Hill (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
While pivoting to the usual starters is an obvious call, the most significant pivots revolve around Jrue Holiday's absence. In their last contest, Wesley Matthews ($3,800) drew the start, and Jordan Nwora ($5,800) moved into the backcourt alongside him.
ORL Cole Anthony (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
ORL Franz Wagner (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
A return for either player is possible, but Terrence Ross ($5,700), R.J. Hampton ($4,800) and Gary Harris ($5,700) would all be viable pivots if the injury situation holds.
UTA Donovan Mitchell (back) - OUT
UTA Rudy Gobert (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
UTA Mike Conley (injury management) - QUESTIONABLE
UTA Bogdan Bogdanovic (finger) - QUESTIONABLE
UTA Jordan Clarkson (back) - QUESTIONABLE
UTA Joe Ingles (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
UTA Royce O'Neale (knee) QUESTIONABLE
UTA Rudy Gay (heel) - OUT
The injury tags for Utah are a day old at the time of publishing, but we can safely assume absences from Gobert, Ingles and Gay at this juncture with several other possible scatches. Hassan Whiteside ($6,100), Udoka Azubuike ($4,600), Jared Butler ($4,000) and Danuel House ($4,000) should all be candidates for enhanced value as the injury scenario develops.
IND Caris LeVert (COVID-19 Protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
IND Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles/conditioning) - QUESTIONABLE
IND Chris Duarte (conditioning) -QUESTIONABLE
IND Torrey Craig ((COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
IND Jeremy Lamb (conditioning) - QUESTIONABLE
This is a massive wait-and-see spot, as LeVert and Brogdon's status is totally up in the air at this point. Duane Washington ($4,000) and Keifer Sykes ($5,800) would still have some value if the injury tags hold, but they become certain fades if the situation changes.
NYK Kemba Walker (knee) - OUT
NYK Evan Fournier (thigh) - QUESTIONABLE
NYK Nerlens Noel (conditioning) - QUESTIONABLE
Although Walker has taken on a larger role when active, not much changes for the Knicks in this spot.
MIA Jimmy Butler (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
MIA Gabe Vincent (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MIA Dewayne Dedmon (knee) - OUT
The starters get the boost here. We'll attempt to address some of them in our endorsements below.
ELITE PLAYERS
Due to the small slate, we will dip down a bit further in the elite list and combine the chalk/Value plays.
At the top of our player pool, LaMelo Ball ($8,600) and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700) make the most sense from a potential upside perspective. The Hornets-Bucks matchup has the highest projected game total on the slate, and Giannis will be working overtime during Jrue Holiday's absence. Ball will possess an advanced capability to get open with Holiday out, and of course, Khris Middleton ($8,100) is eligible for a significant boost in this scenario as well.
I also have no problem smashing the heavily-favored Suns with a good dose of Devin Booker ($8,700) and Chris Paul ($8,300) in bulk builds. Due to lower game totals and tough defensive matchups, we are fading some notable elites and instead highlighting the best value when considering your spend-up plays.
Also consider: Myles Turner, IND ($7,700) vs. UTA (excellent play with Gobert out)
EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS
Kyle Lowry ($7,200) and Omer Yurtseven ($6,800), MIA @ PHO
I promised my favorite plays in Miami's injury situation, beginning with Lowry and Yurtseven. If Jimmy Butler ($9,200) takes the floor, he'll be hard to ignore, but Yurtseven's value should remain the steadiest due to a solid scratch for Bam Adebayo. If Butler sits, Lowry gets a boost alongside Tyler Herro ($6,300), and Max Strus ($5,900) would be the cheap play in a Butler absence.
Immanuel Quickley ($4,700) and RJ Barrett ($5,800) NYK @ BOS
Quickley and Barrett's salaries are well below where they should be, which is why they get my first endorsements for the Knicks. I'm not a big fan of the projected game total and an injury-free Boston lineup, but you'll find the best value on the Knicks' side. Alec Burks ($5,900) will be popular and very affordable, but Quickly will have lower rostership and the potential to deliver 35-plus FP if his shot value jumps into the double digits.
Cade Cunningham, DET ($6,700) vs. ORL
Cunningham is developing a reliable floor that is rising daily, and the rookie is looking like an excellent post-All-Star break DFS selection. His biggest issue is consistency with his jumper, but his numbers at home are night-and-day in comparison to his road performances, and he faces an Orlando team that may be without Cole Anthony. Despite the shot variance, Cunningham is a nightly contributor in secondary categories and can salvage a poor shooting night.
Bobby Portis, MIL ($5,500) @ CHA
While adds for Giannis and Middleton are obvious, Portis gets the second-highest usage bump behind Middleton when Holiday is off the court, clocking in a 5.7-percent improvement. The bump is due to Portis' ability to get the job done in multiple roles, especially in transition, where he does some of his impactful work. I suspect Portis' favorable position won't be a secret, but his salary in this spot might be too good to pass up.
To conclude, I recommend finding spots with Utah and Indiana when they become available. Guys like LeVert, Brogdon, Mitchell, Conley and Bogdanovic would all become available, and they're all viable swaps when we know more.
