This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Events have taken quite the turn in the Western Conference Finals, as the Mavericks rained a barrage of threes on the hapless Warriors to extend this series for one more evening. What seemed like a foregone conclusion is now clouded in doubt, as Golden State seemed powerless to stop the perimeter onslaught. They also couldn't find an answer inside, as Luke Doncic scored at will with slashing plays that left the Warriors flat-footed. Can the Warriors close it out? We'll dig deep as we try to solve the DFS riddle this evening.
For FanDuel single-game contests, participants are given five positions to fill. While two of them are normal (UTIL) spots, the remaining three allow for a multiplier to be given to the selected player. There are three tiers:
MVP - 2x
STAR- 1.5x
PRO - 1.2x
The common mistake made in this format is a lack of emphasis on the 2x player value and the over-valuing of the 1.2x multiplier. In reality, adding .2x to a player is not that significant, while picking the wrong 2x player will likely kill your chances of cashing. You can survive most misses at 1.2x and even 1.5x, but getting the 2x spot correctly is essential.
Unlike other sites, the salaries are not weighed according to the slot selected. All of FanDuel's salaries are static, meaning that no matter where you put a player, their value remains the same. This eliminates the challenges of CPTN format games where you must consider the overall value of the multiplied value as you fill a slew of utility spots. Instead, FanDuel's single-game contests are mostly about picking the top three scorers and rounding out the roster with two value utility players.
Let's look back at the previous contest. Here's the top lineup from one of FanDuel's more popular tournaments.
MVP: Luka Doncic 138.6
STAR: Stephen Curry 58.5
PRO: Maxi Kleber 41.52
UTIL: Draymond Green 31.2
UTIL: Dorian Finney-Smith 31.2
While we cashed and came 12 points shy of this total, we omitted Green for Poole and had Kleber in the utility spot. In large single-game tournaments, it's a game of inches, and you're going to see a lot of identical lineups. We were lucky to cash, thanks to an added emphasis on Dallas talent.
As we make our endorsements, it's important to note how dominant Dallas was in the previous game. The final score tells a slightly different story due to a Warriors surge that closed the gap. While it's commonplace for the Warriors to come from behind, the Mavericks had an answer at every turn, usually with a soul-crushing three-pointer.
The series returns to the Bay Area for Game 5, which is a welcome sight for the Warriors. They have a great home history at Chase Arena, and it's a pivotal intangible to consider. We should also be reminded that recency bias plays a huge role in these single-game affairs, so drilling in some Warriors with lower popularity should be part of your build strategy.
MULTIPLIER CANDIDATES
Luka Doncic ($16,500) MVP
Stephen Curry ($15,500) STAR, MVP
Dorian Finney-Smith ($9,500) STAR, PRO
Andrew Wiggins ($13,000) STAR, PRO
Jordan Poole ($10,500) PRO
Reggie Bullock ($8,500) STAR, PRO
Maxi Kleber ($9,000) PRO
It's typical for people to round out their lineups by putting the lower-priced options in the UTIL spots, but I don't believe that should be the case in this series. Doncic and Curry will be locks for most of my lineups, but you can take some liberties at the PRO position and opt for a cheaper player. Kleber (1.2 percent) and Finney-Smith (4.3 percent) made few appearances at the PRO position in the contest we chose, but slotting them in a multiplier proved to make a huge difference. Conversely, Doncic was an overwhelming MVP favorite, besting Curry in the slot with 70 percent of all MVP picks to Curry's 21 percent. The multiplier comes down to how you view the Mavericks' fate on the road. If you think the Warriors will finish Dallas off, Poole and Wiggins are totally reasonable multiplier options. I think Finney-Smith is a nice call in any scenario, while Kleber is more of an upside candidate who is dependent on a premium showing from the Mavericks. Bullock falls in a similar category. He will come back to earth after his relentless three-point assault, but he has a place in both multiplier and utility builds due to his upside.
UTILITY CANDIDATES
Otto Porter (foot) missed Game 4, and if he misses again, Jonathan Kuminga ($8,500) deserves extra consideration at the UTIL position. If Porter is back, all bets are off for the bench, but it's also reasonable to give Klay Thompson ($12,000) or Jordan Poole ($10,500) a whirl if you have a good feeling about Golden State - I can't make a call about Porter until we know more about his condition.
Players that we mentioned in the multiplier (Finney-Smith, Kleber) can also fill out your rosters as utility plays. It might be easier to discuss who NOT to play in your lineups. The top three fade candidates for me are Kevon Looney, Dwight Powell and Jalen Brunson. While I think Brunson could end up playing target practice, his $13,500 tag is too expensive for the risk. I feel somewhat similarly about Draymond Green ($11,500) despite his appearance in the previous ultimate lineup. Again, this all comes down to your feeling about the game's outcome. Green becomes a viable utility play if you favor the Warriors, but Brunson is a less crucial piece if you predict a Dallas win.
CONCLUSION
I would not stray from Doncic as Thursday's MVP. You can mix-and-match a bit with Curry at the 1.5x multiplier, but he's your guy if you're only playing one lineup. If you are playing multiple lineups, Finney-Smith or Wiggins could reasonably fit there as well. It seems most reasonable to make the PRO spot someone less popular and less expensive, and Kuminga would fit that bill if Porter is out. If you go that cheap, you can find a spot for a 10k-plus player in a utility spot. Maxi Kleber has been a consistent presence in the utility and should also warrant consideration.
