Numbers Game: Fantasy All-Stars

The starting lineups for the NBA All-Star game were announced this week, though they curiously forgot to include Russell Westbrook. With all the All-Star excitement brewing, what better way to participate then by figuring out who would headline the Fantasy All-Star team? And, since this is Numbers Game, we'll use some math to determine our lineups.

Some Ground Rules

Guideline One: Real basketball is a 5-on-5 game, so the All-Star team picks five starters from each conference. Fantasy basketball is usually a 9-on-9 (or, for roto 9-on-9-on-9-etc) game, so we're taking 18 players.

Guideline Two: In the real All-Star game, talented players frequently get shut out because their teams are underperforming (see Kemba Walker, Hassan Whiteside in 2016, Carmelo Anthony in 2015, etc). Similarly, Fantasy All-Stars have to be more than just the most productive players this season – anyone can check out our rankings and read off the top 18 names. Fantasy All-Stars have to be players who are leading successful rosters. LeBron James and Karl-Anthony Towns are having great seasons, but they are not performing at a level needed to justify their early first-round selections. As a result, in most leagues teams with those two are struggling. Our format will punish players for underperforming compared to their cost, and reward players who were cheaply acquired.

Guideline Three: Since conferences are irrelevant to fantasy sports, we will ignore them. In their place will be consideration of categories – each of the nine standard categories must have at least one dominant player representing it. As with rule two, that doesn't mean simply selecting the season leader – Hassan Whiteside was a borderline first-round pick in part because he was expected lead the league boards. While he is eligible, he's not a shoe-in for the rebounding All-Star spot.

Guideline Four: Per game production is more important than total production, but you have to be available to make a difference. The Lakers get no advantage over the 76ers for having played seven more games. On the other hand, George Hill is disqualified for missing more than half of the Jazz' games, even though he has vastly exceeded expectations when active.

Average Draft Position (ADP) will feature heavily in this discussion. It is used as the primary way of measuring a player's cost. I'm using a combination of ADPs from ESPN, Yahoo and CBS.

Who's Out

Before getting into who is a Fantasy All-Star, we can rule some people out.

To be a Fantasy All-Star, you have to outperform your draft spot. It's an absolute requirement. If your fantasy team would have been better off drafting someone else, you don't make the cut. The only flexibility is at the very top of the first round. James Harden and Steph Curry had ADPs of two and three, respectively, and they are producing at early first-round levels. Technically, they are outside the top 3, but they are not DQ'd – at least not yet.

This knocks out several top-25 players. Towns, James, DeMarcus Cousins, Paul George and Damian Lillard are off our Fantasy All-Star squad. They are having great seasons, sure, but their owners are all desperately wishing they had "reached" for Giannis Antetokounmpo – or at least John Wall or Jimmy Butler. If your owner regrets picking you, you are not an All-Star.

What about Russell Westbrook?

For this article, I'm focusing on 9-category rankings, where Westbrook is ranked 14th, far short of his first overall ADP. But Westbrook is still eligible to be a Fantasy All-Star for a few reasons:

In 8-category, which is more fun anyway, he ranks fifth, and is therefore protected by the Harden-Curry rule, above.

Punting turnovers is a pretty common strategy, and only Harden receives a bigger boost in value for a 9-cat team punting turnovers.

He's averaging a triple-double.

Westbrook is still in the running.

Similarly, Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond and Dwight Howard are underperforming according to ADP. But they were drafted by owners who knew that the selection meant they were punting free throws. All four rank in the top 25 for punting free throws, either matching or vastly improving their ADP. They are all eligible, too.

The Power of Powers

What is more valuable: a second-round pick performing like a first-rounder or someone whose jump is from fifth to third? We math geeks like combining exponents and subtraction to solve this problem. Exponents properly used (I'll spare you the specifics, ask in the comments or on Twitter if you want to know more) can highlight the players who exceeded expectations, while also rewarding players for better production. A straightforward difference-of-two-squares algorithm says that Otto Porter's jump, from an eighth-round pick to a top-20 player, is the most valuable leap in the league. According to this metric – let's call it Best Value, or BV – here are the top 10 best value fantasy players. Expect this list to be heavily featured in our Fantasy All-Star team:

Otto Porter
Patrick Beverley
Trevor Booker
Larry Nance
Tyler Johnson
Myles Turner
Giannis Antetokounmpo
George Hill
Isaiah Thomas
Nick Young

Similar algorithms help identify players who made major leaps in each category. Rudy Gobert leads the league in blocks. Not to be all "nothing is ever good enough for you, dad," but Gobert is supposed to lead the league in blocks. He gets a "meets expectations" on his report card. That didn't fly in my house, and it certainly isn't enough to make an All-Star team. Myles Turner, fourth in blocks, has increased from good to elite. When fantasy managers look proudly at their blocks, Turner is the guy they are thankful for.

Using a similar equation, I created a Best Improved list for each category. This rewards players for improvement, giving extra weight to players who go from good to great. Here are the Best Improved in each category:

Points: Antetokounmpo, Kevin Love, Westbrook, Thomas, Bradley Beal

Threes: Young, Zach LaVine, Mike Conley, Eric Gordon, Thomas

Rebounds: Booker, Tyson Chandler, Westbrook, Whiteside, Anthony Davis

Assists:Tim Frazier, Harden, Dennis Schroder, Jeff Teague, Antetokounmpo

Steals: Thabo Sefolosha, Antetokounmpo, Draymond Green, Teague, Beverley

Blocks: Turner, Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Lucas Nogueira, Davis

Field-Goal Percentage: Porter, Nikola Jokic, Montrezl Harrell, Gobert, Clint Capela

Free-Throw Percentage: Love, Kawhi Leonard, Thomas, Butler, C.J. McCollum

The algorithm sort of falls apart with turnovers, but it does point out particularly large improvements from Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Tyler Johnson.

Rookies and the Undrafted

The first list above highlights players who exceeded their ADP, and the second dealt with performance compared to 2015-16. But some fantasy regulars were so underrated that they didn't have an ADP (ESPN stops counting at 140, CBS and Yahoo stop in the low 200s). Rookies don't have a last season to compare to. Here at Numbers Game, no one falls through the cracks!

As it turns out, only two undrafted players crack the top 100 – Moe Harkless and Nogueira. As for rookies, only three crack the top 200, and Chasson Randle has only played two games. The other two are Joel Embiid and Malcolm Brogdon.

The Definitive 2016-17 Fantasy All-Star Starting Lineup

PG Isaiah Thomas, Celtics ; Free-Throw Percentage: Number nine on our BV ranking, Thomas is first in the league in free throw percentage impact and second in points. First-round value for a third-round price.

PG Russell Westbrook, Thunder ; Points: He's averaging a triple double. He leads the league in points. He's among the Best Improved in both points and rebounds. He's a ton of fun to own. He's not getting snubbed twice in one week.

SG Nick Young, Lakers, Lou Williams, Lakers : Mathematically the two best waiver-wire pickups this season, both are top-80 overall. They rank 10 and 14 on BV, respectively. Both are having shockingly efficient seasons, with Young the Best Improved three-point shooter and Williams in the top 15 for free-throw impact.

SF Otto Porter, Wizards ; Turnovers: The best value on draft day, Porter went from summer league disappointment to the fantasy top-20. He is the only top-20 player averaging less than 1.7 turnovers per game – he's at only 0.7. The top vote-getter for the Fantasy All-Star team.

SF Kawhi Leonard, Spurs : Ranked 15th in BV, Leonard is the injury fill-in for both turnovers and free-throw percentage. He helps in every category.

PF Myles Turner, Pacers ; Blocks: Turner is one of four members of the elite blocks tier. He's sixth in BV, but if you drafted in early October, you might have gotten him for a ninth-round pick – in those cases, he challenges Porter for the top spot in BV.

PF Anthony Davis, Pelicans : Drafting at the end of the first round, I took Davis and thought, "this is the pick that can win league." As fantasy's third-best player, he's exceeded expectations. Among the Best Improved in rebounds and blocks, and 13th in BV.

C Dwight Howard, Hawks ; Rebounds: The four infamous punt free-throws guys are all top-25 players for that strategy. While the other three cost a second- or third-round pick, for only slightly less production, Howard was available in the fifth. He's a top-five rebounder, grabbing more boards than he has since 2011-12.

C Joel Embiid, 76ers ; Blocks: Another of the elite blockers, even despite a minutes restriction. His pace, prorated to 28 minutes – his current restriction – moves him into first in the category. As a rookie. With a ninth round ADP.

G Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks : He was a top-five Best Improved in four of eight categories. He's seventh in BV. He's the second best fantasy performer this season. Barring disaster, he should be the first overall pick next season.

G James Harden, Rockets ; Assists: The league leader in assists, and the second Best Improved. He's a top-six player in four categories. Also, it's fun to own an MVP candidate in one of the most competitive races in recent memory.

F Kevin Durant, Warriors ; Field-Goal Percentage: The best overall fantasy player deserves to be a Fantasy All-Star. It's really hard to argue against that. His 54.6 field-goal percentage is the second highest in the league among small forwards – and the guy ahead of him averages just 2.0 attempts per game.

F Jimmy Butler, Bulls : Owners got solid first-round value for a mid-second round pick. He's a Best Improved in free-throw percentage, but he has improved in every category except blocks and turnovers.

UTIL Eric Gordon, Rockets; Threes: Gordon and Curry are far ahead of Kyle Lowry and the rest of the league in made threes. If your 12th-round pick is listed in a sentence about Curry and Lowry, then he is a Fantasy All-Star.

UTIL Draymond Green, Warriors ; Steals: One week ago, Chris Paul would be the steals rep and Green would not be an All-Star. But Paul's thumb injury knocked him out of consideration. Green is third in steals and a Best Improved in the category. He's a respectable 32 in BV.

UTIL Avery Bradley, Celtics: He has fallen off a little from his hot start, but he is still a top-40 player and ranked 11th in BV.

UTIL Tyler Johnson, Heat : Johnson is the highest ranked waiver-wire player who has warranted consistent ownership – Booker and Beverley are above him, but have been justifiably dropped in many leagues. Arguably the healthiest members of the Heat, he has ridden the extra minutes to the five spot in the BV rankings.

Think I missed someone? Berate me in the comments or on twitter @Rikleen.