This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
As we move through the first round of the NBA playoffs, three series have already concluded.
On Monday night, Miami finished off a sweep of the Pacers. The Raptors blew through the Nets in four games, as expected. Boston sweeping the 76ers wasn't nearly as predictable, but it sets up a massively compelling Round 2 series between two franchises that have never met in the playoffs.
Barring what would be the most improbable playoff comeback of all-time, Milwaukee will face off against Miami in Round 2. With both one-seeds bouncing back from Game 1 losses, the Bucks and Lakers are positioned to close out their respective series on Wednesday. Utah will have an opportunity to do the same on Tuesday night, while two other Western Conference series -- Clippers/Mavericks and Rockets/Thunder -- remain in the balance.
Given the schedule construction, Round 2 is guaranteed to begin before Round 1 completely finishes. With no down time between rounds, what better time than now to examine the futures market ahead of the Conference Semifinals.
All odds via the DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Champion
| LA Lakers: +275 | Milwaukee: +275 |
| LA Clippers: +330 | Toronto: +700 |
| Boston: +900 | Houston: +1300 |
| Miami: +1800 | Dallas: +2500 |
| Utah: +2500 | Oklahoma City: +6000 |
| Denver: +20000 | Portland: +50000 |
| Orlando: +100000 |
In all likelihood, Milwaukee will take care of Orlando in five games. Despite some struggles, by their standards, the Bucks remain the heavy favorite among Eastern Conference teams to win the title. Back in June, Milwaukee was slightly ahead of the Lakers, but the two one-seeds are now even at +275. Unsurprisingly, the Clippers are just behind at +330.
As has been the case for virtually the entire season, there's a sizable gap between the top three and the next tier of Toronto (+700), Boston (+900) and Houston (+1300). Miami is hanging around at 18/1 -- an intriguing bet if you believe the Heat can play Milwaukee as competitively as they did during the regular season.
Conference Winners
Eastern Conference Winner
| Milwaukee: -112 |
| Toronto: +250 |
| Boston: +350 |
| Miami: +800 |
| Orlando: +50000 |
Western Conference Winner
| LA Lakers -112 |
| LA Clippers: +162 |
| Houston: +700 |
| Dallas: +1400 |
| Utah: +1400 |
| Oklahoma City: +3000 |
| Denver: +12500 |
| Portland: +30000 |
Here is where things get a bit more interesting. While Milwaukee remains the clear favorite among Eastern Conference teams to win the title, the gap between the Bucks and the Raptors -- as well as the Celtics -- has narrowed significantly.
Before the bubble, Toronto held 7/1 odds to win the East. After a dominant run through seeding play and Round 1, the Raptors now sit at +250 to make the Finals. Boston, meanwhile, has jumped from +800 pre-bubble all the way up to +350. Miami's odds (+800) remain nearly unchanged (+900 before bubble play).
With the odds to win the East tightening up, the implication is that oddsmakers view the Raptors and Celtics as more capable of taking down the Bucks now than they did a month ago. However, Milwaukee retaining the much better title odds means: 1. The Bucks have an easier Round 2 opponent; and, 2. If the Bucks get to The Finals, they would have a better chance to beat the Lakers or Clippers than Boston or Toronto would. Of course, the Raptors and Celtics having to face each other in Round 2 is a factor, as well.
For those concerned about Milwaukee's lack of flow thus far in Orlando, jumping ship to Toronto has been the most popular narrative. But in the Celtics, the Raptors face a daunting second-round opponent. The Raptors are the slight series favorite, but it's viewed by most as a toss-up -- especially if Kyle Lowry misses any time.
In the West, the odds are more stable. The Lakers (+130) remain the slight favorites over their Staples Center cohabitants (+162), despite the Clippers fighting Dallas to a 2-2 split through four games. Oddsmakers apparently haven't been too scared off, though the Clippers were the favorites -- +110 vs. +120 for LAL -- to come out of the West just three days ago. Assuming both Los Angeles teams advance, those numbers could continue to yo-yo on a game-to-game basis.
Further down, the Rockets sit at 7/1 -- down from the 5/1 odds they held prior to losing Game 4 on Monday. Houston is the favorite to advance (-177) over OKC (+140), and, despite dropping two straight to the Thunder, oddsmakers still believe in the Rockets' long-term upside -- perhaps because Russell Westbrook is yet to play a minute in the postseason.
Dallas is hanging on at +1400 to win the West -- up from +2500 before the series began. Utah also finds itself at +1400 (up from +3400), signifying a belief that the Jazz will close out the Nuggets but likely fall in Round 2.
Finals: Exact Matchup
| Bucks-Lakers: +330 | Bucks-Clippers: +390 |
| Raptors-Lakers: +700 | Raptors-Clippers: +800 |
| Celtics-Lakers: +900 | Celtics-Clippers: +1000 |
| Bucks-Rockets: +1400 | Heat-Lakers: +1800 |
| Heat-Clippers: +2200 | Bucks-Jazz: +2700 |
| Raptors-Rockets: +2700 | Bucks-Mavericks: +2700 |
| Celtics-Rockets: +3500 | Raptors-Jazz: +5000 |
| Thunder-Bucks: +5000 | Raptors-Mavericks: +5000 |
| Celtics-Jazz: +6600 | Heat-Rockets: +6600 |
| Celtics-Mavericks: +6600 | Heat-Jazz: +10000 |
Bucks-Lakers as the favored matchup remains unchanged, but the odds are a bit longer at +330, compared to +300 in mid-June. There's still significant momentum to back the Bucks, but -- as expected -- the Raptors and Celtics are closer to the top. In June, a Celtics-Lakers Finals was 19/1, and Raptors-Lakers was 22/1.
Finals MVP
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: +280 | LeBron James: +400 |
| Kawhi Leonard: +400 | Anthony Davis: +1100 |
| Jayson Tatum: +1300 | James Harden: +1600 |
| Pascal Siakam: +1800 | Kyle Lowry: +2000 |
| Luka Doncic: +2500 | Paul George: +2500 |
| Jimmy Butler: +2800 | Donovan Mitchell: +2800 |
| Fred VanVleet: +2800 | Kemba Walker: +3500 |
| Russell Westbrook: +5000 | Bam Adebayo: +6600 |
| Jaylen Brown: +10000 | Khris Middleton: +10000 |
| Chris Paul: +10000 | Goran Dragic: +15000 |
Since this award almost always goes to the best player on the best team, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard sitting at the top of the list is a given. Antetokounmpo leading the way reflects the projected difficulty of a Lakers-Clippers Western Conference Finals, as opposed to Bucks-Celtics or Bucks-Raptors in the East.
Antetokounmpo also has the advantage of being by far the best player on his team. Milwaukee's next-best option, Khris Middleton, is all the way down at 100/1 -- the same odds as Chris Paul. Leonard's best teammate finished third in MVP voting a year ago, but Paul George is just 25/1 to win Finals MVP. That reflects his poor play thus far in the postseason, as well as the belief that for the Clippers to win the title, Leonard would have to have a dominant series.
The gap between James and Anthony Davis (11/1) tells a similar story, though Davis has fared much better than George through four playoff games. While it's hard to imagine anyone but James claiming the trophy if the Lakers win it all, in that scenario Davis would likely need to have a monster Finals in his own right, and his defensive impact packs added upside.
Beyond the top four, things get considerably more dicey. But if you're a believer in Boston or Houston, betting Jayson Tatum (13/1) and James Harden (16/1) are no-brainers. For Raptors faithful, picking between Pascal Siakam (18/1), Kyle Lowry (20/1) and Fred VanVleet (28/1) is not an easy task.
