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Best Bets
Knicks to cover -4 points (-110) at Mavericks
FanDuel, 3:25 PM CT
Alex Barutha: The Mavericks are missing a number of key players -- Luka Doncic, Dante Exum, Dereck Lively and Maxi Kleber. Grant Williams is also questionable. Notably, the Mavericks are -7.6 points per 100 possessions with Doncic/Exum/Lively off the floor. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 5-0 since OG Anunoby debuted, including four double-digit wins.
Chet Holmgren over 2.5 blocks (+115) vs. Trail Blazers
BetMGM, 4:54 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Holmgren's shot-blocking has slowed down a bit lately, but he's still averaging 2.1 swats since Christmas, and he's recorded 3+ blocks in 13 of his 36 appearances overall. Earlier in the year, he had two blocks against this Portland team in just 20 minutes. The Blazers are allowing the third-most blocks to opposing centers over the past 30 days, and they're the second-most blocked team in the NBA. Ultimately, I think this is good value at plus money.
Derrick White over 13.5 points (-120) at Bucks
PointsBet, 5:07 PM CT
Alex Barutha: If you read this column often, I'm about to sound like a broken record -- Milwaukee gives up the most points to opposing teams' pick-and-roll ballhandlers. White has 31% of his usage come in those actions. While he's cooled off a bit, he's still averaging 12.5 PPG over his past six games on 42/38/100 shooting. Plus, who doesn't love the 245 over/under?
Duop Reath under 12.5 points (-150) at Thunder
DraftKings, 5:12 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Apologies to any Duop Reath superfans out there. He's averaging 10.9 PPG as a starter, and he's one of the most pick-and-roll dependent bigs in the NBA, with 31% of his usage coming in those actions -- the second-highest mark in the NBA behind only Nikola Vucevic. The Thunder allow the third-fewest points to pick-and-roll rollers, so this could end up being a rough scoring night for Reath.
Jusuf Nurkic under 11.5 points (-115) at Lakers
DraftKings, 5:18 PM CT
Alex Barutha: First off, just envision Nurkic trying to score on Anthony Davis. That should be enough for you to take the under. But I do have some numbers working for my hypothesis. Nurkic is averaging 7.0 PPG in three prior appearances against the Lakers this season. Los Angeles allows the sixth-fewest points to pick-and-roll rollers and the third-fewest points to post-up players. Of Nurkic's 12.5 PPG, 5.2 of them come in those two actions.
Jerami Grant over 1.5 threes (-150) at Thunder
DraftKings, 5:23 PM CT
Alex Barutha: For as good as the Thunder are, they allow the most points off opponent spot-ups. Grant scores the third-most PPG off spot-ups (7.1). Since spot-up two-pointers don't really exist anymore, we're leaning on his threes. He went 1-for-5 from deep in 27 minutes during these teams' previous matchup.
Derrick White over 23.5 points+rebounds+assists at Milwaukee (-110)
PointsBet, 4pm ET
Ken Crites: This is based on two points. Number 1, the Bucks' backcourt defense is terrible. Lilliard and Beasley are just awful defenders. The Bucks give the third most points per game to point guards (26.6) and the fourth most to shooting guards (25.2). Derrick White actually plays more PG than Jrue Holiday, but they split duties. Number 2, I'm expecting a bounce-back game for White after he scored only nine points in last night's win over Minnesota. Tatum and Brown carried the scoring load for Boston last night. Plus, the juicy 245 O/U is too high to resist. It's time for others to step up tonight. Full confession, I'm on a 3-night losing streak, so feel free to fade. K-Train is a modest 15-13 this season.
