NBA Best Bets Today - Free Picks for Tuesday, April 4

NBA Best Bets Today - Free Picks for Tuesday, April 4

This article is part of our NBA Picks series.

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Best Bets

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points (-125) and over 1.5 steals (-145) at Warriors

DraftKings, 2:38 PM CT

Alex Barutha: Golden State is giving up the second-most mid-range attempts over the past month -- where Gilgeous-Alexander takes half his shots. SGA also hasn't scored fewer than 27 points since March 13 and is averaging 33.9 PPG during this stretch. On the other side of the ball, the Warriors have the highest TOV% over the past month, and SGA has at least one steals in 12 of the past 13 games, averaging 1.5 STL during this stretch. Using the same logic, it's easy for me to endorse Steph Curry over 3.5 turnovers (+120) as well.

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Mikal Bridges over 26.5 points (-125) vs. Timberwolves

DraftKings, 2:42 PM CT

Alex Barutha: With Rudy Gobert anchoring the paint, Minnesota is one of the league's most committed drop coverage defenses. That strategy allows for open mid-range jumpers and open threes from floor-spacing fives. Brooklyn doesn't deploy a floor-spacing center, so I'm looking to Bridges for a big game. He takes 48% of his shots from mid-range, and he's averaging 33.7 PPG on 21.0 shots across the past six games.

Fred VanVleet over 1.5 steals (-160) at Charlotte

DraftKings, 2:42 PM CT

Alex Barutha: There's a lot of juice here, but for good reason. The Hornets have the third-highest TOV% over the past month, and VanVleet has at least one swipe in his past 17 appearances (2.4 STL). This is a rematch as well, with FVV recording three steals against Charlotte on Sunday -- not to mention 20 points and 20 assists!

Isaiah Livers over 1.5 threes (-140) vs. Heat

DraftKings, 3:06 PM CT

Alex Barutha: We're diving a little deep here, but the Heat have been prone to corner three-point shooters all season and are still allowing the most attempts from that spot over the past month. That's where Livers takes 24% of his shots. His conversion rate from three...has some variance. Over the past month, he's making 1.6 triples on 32.1 percent. Still, the volume is encouraging, and he should be open all night.

Saddiq Bey over 2.5 threes (+110) at Chicago

DraftKings, 3:10 PM CT

Alex Barutha: Bey will get the start again with De'Andre Hunter sidelined, and with Trae Young out as well, Bey will probably be asked to take more shots. Not only that, but the Bulls have allowed the third-most corner three attempts over the past month -- where Bey has taken 27% of his shots as a Hawk. When seeing 30+ minutes this season, he's making 2.4 threes at 36.5 percent.

LeBron James double-double at Utah Jazz (+135)

DraftKings Sportsbook, 130pm CT

Nick Whalen: There's some blowout potential here with Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler among the inactives for Utah, but the Lakers have a tendency to let bad teams hang around, so as long as James approaches 30 minutes, I like his chance to rack up a third straight double-double. Utah ranks No. 1 in the NBA in three-pointers allowed to opponents over its last 10 games, and James might be the best in the league when it comes to setting up teammates from downtown. On top of that, the Jazz allow the second-most assists per game to opposing teams – a positive indication for James, who made a point to set up Anthony Davis time and time again Sunday against Houston. Of course, rebounds are also in play for James, who has at least eight in six straight games dating back to before his injury. The Lakers could also be without D'Angelo Russell tonight. He moved from probable to questionable on the injury report, and it would make sense to exercise caution ahead of Wednesday's showdown with the Clippers.

Evan Mobley over 1.5 blocks at Orlando (-130)

DraftKings, 3:15pm ET

Ken Crites: Over his last seven games, Mobley has averaged 3.1 blocks per contest. He's had three or more blocks in six of those seven games.  Orlando ranks tied for 22nd in blocks allowed per game (5.06).  That ain't good. Mobley will feast on awkward attempts by Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. I'm betting Mobley stays hot with the swats, baby.

Pat Connaughton over 8.5 points (-110) at Washington

FanDuel, 2:50pm ET

Ken Crites: The Wizards are essentially starting a G League squad tonight, with apologies to Delon Wright.  The Bucks are favored by -13.5, so it seems like a perfect time to give Giannis and Jrue Holiday minimal minutes.  But who cares how tired Pat Connaughton gets? In fact, Milwaukee should be motivated to get Connaughton back on track after a rough March. He's back in the starting line-up as the Bucks load manage Khris Middleton and Grayson Allen deals with an ankle issue.  Jevon Carter is also questionable.  It seems like plenty of shots should be available for Connaughton.

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Eugene Omoruyi over 12.5 points vs. Heat (-108)

FanDuel, 3pm ET

Ken Crites: Marvin Bagley is out.  In fact, half of the Pistons are out:  Bogdanovic, McGruder, Burks, Diallo and Beef Stew.  If it wasn't for Jaden Ivey and Killian Hayes, Eugene might have to bring the ball up. Omoruyi, after going undrafted in 2021, will play in his 43rd NBA contest tonight.  He knows it's now or never.  On April 2nd, versus Orlando, he hoisted 17 shots on his way to 19 points.  As a reserve, he's averaged 14.7 points over his last three games.  Tonight he's getting the start and I expect he'll shoot early and often.  Omoruyi might play 30+ minutes tonight.  And I'm excited to yell "EUGENE!!!"  all night.  Hey, I'm a modest 26-22 on the season, so feel free to fade all my suggestions.

Johnny Davis 20+ points vs. Bucks (+410)

FanDuel Sportsbook 2 PM ET

Kirien Sprecher: Deni Avdija (elbow) will join Bradley Beal (knee), Kristaps Porzingis (illness), Monte Morris (ankle) and Kyle Kuzma (ankle) on the sidelines Tuesday, so Davis is expected to draw a second straight start and should have ample offensive opportunities against the Bucks. The rookie first-round pick has yet to score 20-plus points at the NBA level, but he has scored at least 15 in two of his past four appearances, including 16 during his first career start versus the Knicks on Sunday. FanDuel thinks Davis scoring 15-plus is essentially a coin flip (+115), so I like the value play. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo first basket vs. Washington (+320)

FanDuel Sportsbook 2 PM ET

Kirien Sprecher: First baskets are always a fun prop to bet, and I like Giannis setting the tone early against Washington's porous and depleted frontcourt. 

Timberwolves at Nets OVER 224 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook 2 PM ET

Kirien Sprecher: The last time these two teams met (March 10), they combined for 247 points. Both teams feature some of the best individual defenders in the game, but I think they both want to push the pace and can get easy looks in transition before the likes of Rudy Gobert and Nic Claxton get their respective half-court defenses in position.

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Alex Barutha
Alex is RotoWire's Chief NBA Editor. He writes articles about daily fantasy, year-long fantasy and sports betting. You can hear him on the RotoWire NBA Podcast, Sirius XM, VSiN and other platforms. He firmly believes Robert Covington is the most underrated fantasy player of the past decade.
An early RotoWire contributor from the 90's, K-Train returns with the grace of Gheorghe Muresan and the wisdom of Joe Gibbs. Ken is a two-time FSWA award winner and a co-host on the RW NBA Podcast. He's also the 2016 Champion of the prestigious RW NBA Keeper League and the 2019 Champion of the RW NFL Ottoneu Keeper League. Ken still owns a RotoNews shirt.
Kirien Sprecher
Kirien Sprecher is a University of Wisconsin-Madison graduate who has covered the NBA, NFL and MLB for RotoWire since early 2021. In his free time, Kirien is probably arguing a foul call during a pickup basketball game at a local rec center.
Nick Whalen
Now in his 10th year with the company, Nick is RotoWire's Senior Media Analyst, a position he took on after several years as the Head of Basketball Content. A two-time FSWA award winner, Nick co-hosts RotoWire's flagship show on Sirius XM alongside Jeff Erickson. He also co-hosts RotoWire's Football and Basketball podcasts. You can catch Nick's NBA and NFL analysis on VSiN and DraftKings, as well as RotoWire's various social and video channels. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram @wha1en.
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