This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
There's a big 11-game ledger on tap overall Tuesday night in the Association, but FanDuel is giving us a slightly more manageable nine-game main slate to work with. There are an unusually high number of games that shape up as non-competitive by the numbers, however, data which reminds us to be even more prudent than usual when deciding whether or not to fork out the investment for some of the most elite options available.
Slate Overview
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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Tuesday, 2/27 @12:00 a.m. ET:
*Brooklyn Nets (-6.5) at Orlando Magic (-8.5) (O/U: 216.0)
Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers (-4) (O/U: 233.5)
Golden State Warriors (-10.5) at Washington Wizards (O/U: 242.5)
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics (-12.5) (O/U: 227.5)
Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks (-3) (O/U: 237.0)
San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves (-13.5) (O/U: 224.0)
New Orleans Pelicans (-2.5) at *New York Knicks (O/U: 219.5)
Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks (-14.5) (O/U: 224.0)
*Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls (-12) (O/U: 227.0)
*denotes team on second night of back-to-back set
As just alluded to, we're dealing with an atypically large amount of double-digit spreads tonight, and that's with only three of the 18 teams in action on the back end of back-to-back sets. Naturally, trends tell us that at least a couple of those projected blowouts will be closer than expected, with the 76ers-Celtics and Spurs-T-Wolves games good potential candidates, especially if Rudy Gobert sits out for Minnesota with his ankle injury.
On the projected total side of the equation, there are a couple of encouraging figures in those attached to the Mavericks-Cavaliers and Warriors-Wizards games, but otherwise, it could be an average night in terms of offense, at least by this season's standards.
Injury Situations to Monitor
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Zion Williamson, NOP (foot): QUESTIONABLE
If Williamson can't play, Naji Marshall is likely to draw a start at power forward, while the rest of the starting five will be due for appreciable bumps in usage.
Paolo Banchero, ORL (illness): QUESTIONABLE
If Banchero can't play, Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter could be big beneficiaries, while Joe Ingles or Moritz Wagner could draw the start at power forward.
Rudy Gobert, MIN (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
If Gobert can't suit up, Naz Reid will be due for a spot start at center, while Karl-Anthony Towns would see a rise in rebounding opportunities.
CJ McCollum, NOP (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
If McCollum can't play, Jordan Hawkins could draw a start at point guard and Brandon Ingram could be due for more ball-handling opportunities than usual.
Other notable injuries:
Luka Doncic, DAL (nose): PROBABLE
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (knee): PROBABLE
Cam Thomas, BKN (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Deni Avdija, WAS (heel): QUESTIONABLE
Isaiah Stewart, DET (ankle): GTD
Trae Young, ATL (finger): OUT
LaMelo Ball, CHA (ankle): OUT
Julius Randle, NYK (shoulder): OUT
OG Anunoby, NYK (elbow): OUT
Khris Middleton, MIL (ankle): OUT
Ben Simmons, BKN (knee): OUT
Elite Players
We have four players with a five-figure salary on Tuesday's slate – Luka Doncic ($12,400), Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700), Victor Wembanyama ($10,700), Jayson Tatum ($10,000).
Doncic is expected to play through his probable designation and is coming off having scored 74.3 and 55.2 FD points in his last two games. He's also going to be an integral part of a game that could go down to the wire and that has the second-highest projected total of the night.
Giannis has scored 54.9 FD points or more in three of the last four games and put up 42.3 over just 23 minutes the last time he saw the Hornets, but there is blowout risk in his game Tuesday.
Wembanyama appears to be fully comfortable at this point, as evidenced by his tallies of 51 to 80.3 FD points in five straight.
Tatum has at least 40.2 FD points in eight of his last nine games, and despite the 76ers still being down Joel Embiid, Philadelphia could present a scenario where the star forward has to play a normal complement of minutes.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
Donovan Mitchell, CLE ($9,900)
Mitchell often carries a five-figure salary, so he should be popular with Tuesday's discount and will be involved in a game that should be very competitive.
Anthony Edwards, MIN ($9,700)
Edwards has sported a floor of 45 FD points in his last seven games and can offer a return befitting a five-figure salary, making him a likely highly rostered option Tuesday.
Jalen Brunson, NYK ($9,500)
Brunson continues to spearhead the Knicks' attack in Julius Randle's absence and has scored over 45 FD points in 10 of his last 12 contests, which should keep him very highly rostered at his salary.
Kyrie Irving, DAL ($9,400)
Irving has been especially productive recently with tallies of between 41.5 and 63.3 FD points in six of the last eight games.
Dejounte Murray, ATL ($8,900)
Murray will continue taking the floor without Trae Young on Tuesday and scored 48.5 and 55.3 FD points in his first game-plus without his star teammate available.
Key Values
John Collins, UTA at ATL ($6,600)
Collins sports a very appealing salary given both recent body of work and his matchup. The big man has scored 34.6 to 42.1 FD points in his last three games, and he also has tallies of 34.8, 37.8 and 42.3 FD points within his last nine contests overall. Collins also should be in a good spot from a positional perspective Tuesday, as the Hawks are still short-handed at center despite Clint Capela's recent return from an adductor injury. Onyeka Okongwu, who's played an increasingly bigger role this season, is sidelined with a toe injury, and Atlanta is already allowing the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating to centers (36.5) and over 51 FD points per contest to the position in the last 15 games.
Ayo Dosunmu, CHI vs. DET ($6,100)
Dosunmu is another player amply capable of outpacing his current salary Tuesday, as he's scored 35.4 FD points or more in five of his last 11 games alone. The breakout third-year guard is shooting a blistering 55.0 percent, including 51.7 percent from distance, over the entirety of that span, and he has a firm grip on the starting shooting guard role as a result. The Pistons check in allowing the ninth-highest offensive efficiency rating to two-guards (24.2) and sixth-most FD points per game to the position in the last 30 contests (44.7) as well, and Dosunmu already averaged over an FD point per minute – 27.7 in 27 minutes – in one of the prior meetings against them back in November while coming off the bench.
De'Andre Hunter, ATL vs. UTA ($6,100)
While Dejounte Murray will certainly get plenty of attention from DFS players Tuesday in Young's continued absence, Hunter is another Hawks piece that could certainly benefit yet again from playing without the star point guard. Hunter has already been thriving in the second-unit role he's been filling since returning from an extended injury layoff, scoring 29.1 to 39.9 FD points in three of his first seven games back in action. Hunter has then put up 30 and 34.4 FD points in his last two games, with Young exiting early in the first one of those contests against the Raptors and then missing Sunday's win over Orlando altogether. The Jazz should make for good candidates to coax another strong performance out of the veteran wing, considering they're allowing the eighth-highest offensive efficiency rating to second-unit players (44.4) and 41.4 FD points per game to small forwards in the last 30. Hunter is also averaging 35.8 FD points per 36 minutes with Young off the floor this season, furthering his case.
ALSO CONSIDER: Tre Mann, CHA at MIL ($6,000)
