This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Thursday's seven-game slate features several intriguing matchups with the potential for some high scores and standout individual performances. There are a trio of especially big-name absences already confirmed, however, so there will be some strategy at play in terms of lineup construction, from both a high-end and value play perspective.
Slate Overview
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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, 3/7 @11:00 a.m. ET:
Brooklyn Nets (-2.5) at Detroit Pistons (O/U: 215.5)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers (-2) (O/U: 228.0)
Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks (-4.5) (O/U: 229.0)
Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns (-10.5) (O/U: 233.0)
Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets (-1) (O/U: 221.0)
San Antonio Spurs at *Sacramento Kings (-11) (O/U: 235.5)
*Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors (-8) (O/U: 223.0)
*denotes team on second night of back-to-back set
There's a fair amount of optimism to derive from Thursday's betting numbers, as there appears to be a good chance of a mostly competitive night if spreads are reasonably accurate. There are also only two of 14 teams on back-to-backs, and the quartet of projected totals of 228 points or higher is also encouraging.
The spots that appear to have the best chance of being wire-to-wire, DFS goldmines are the T-Wolves-Pacers, Celtics-Nuggets and Heat-Mavericks battles, but there are enough defensively questionable teams sprinkled throughout the night to make other games sleepers in that regard.
Injury Situations to Monitor
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Victor Wembanyama, SAN (ankle): OUT
In Wembanyama's absence, Zach Collins and Dominick Barlow should primarily handle center duties, while Jeremy Sochan and Keldon Johnson could see additional rebounding opportunities down low.
Devin Booker, PHO (ankle): OUT
In Booker's ongoing absence, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant should see notable usage bumps, while complementary options like Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic should thrive as well.
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN (knee): OUT
In Towns' absence, Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert could see even more usage than usual, while Kyle Anderson and Naz Reid could also directly benefit in the form of more minutes down low.
Jaylen Brown, BOS (pelvis): QUESTIONABLE
If Brown can't play, Jayson Tatum will be in line for even more opportunities than usual, while Sam Hauser could draw a start at small forward.
Other notable injuries:
Scottie Barnes, TOR (hand): OUT
Tyler Herro, MIA (knee): OUT
Jakob Poeltl, TOR (finger): OUT
Cameron Johnson, BKN (ankle): OUT
Cam Thomas, BKN (ankle): OUT
Bennedict Mathurin, IND (shoulder): OUT
Ben Simmons, BKN (back): OUT
Luka Doncic, DAL (ankle): PROBABLE
Elite Players
We have five players with five-figure salaries that have a chance to play on Thursday's slate – Luka Doncic ($12,600), Nikola Jokic ($12,000), Domantas Sabonis ($10,800), Kevin Durant ($10,200) and Jayson Tatum ($10,000).
Doncic is fully expected to play through his probable tag and will be looking to extend his streak of games of 60+ FD points to six against a short-handed Heat backcourt.
Jokic could see all the minutes he can handle in a potential Finals preview against the Celtics, and he'll be looking to extend a seven-game streak of double-doubles in the process.
Sabonis is up to 44 straight games with at least a double-double and has eclipsed 50 FD points in three straight. He also compiled 52.7 FD points against the Spurs via a 22-point, 11-rebound, 11-assist triple-double the last time he saw them Feb. 22.
Durant will be taking the floor without Devin Booker once again and just posted 56.1 FD points on Tuesday night against the Nuggets without his teammate available.
Like Jokic, Tatum seems to have a very good chance of a heavy minutes load Thursday given the matchup against the Nuggets, and he could be taking the floor without Jaylen Brown if the latter can't play through his pelvic injury.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
De'Aaron Fox, SAC ($9,500)
Fox's 44-point outburst Wednesday against the Lakers that netted 57.8 FD points should help keep him very popular Thursday despite the fact he's on the floor for a second straight night.
Anthony Edwards, MIN ($9,300)
Despite Edwards' dud against the Blazers on Monday, the fact he's taking the floor with two days of rest and is projected for even more usage than usual with Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined should help keep Edwards highly rostered.
Jimmy Butler, MIA ($9,000)
Butler will take the floor without Tyler Herro and has scored 49.2 FD points or more in three of the last four games, factors that should help place him in plenty of lineups Thursday.
Rudy Gobert, MIN ($8,600)
Towns' absence could most directly benefit Gobert, who comes in having scored 42.2 to 53.2 FD points in five of his last six games.
Immanuel Quickley, TOR ($8,000)
Scottie Barnes' and Jakob Poeltl's ongoing absences and Quickley's average of 39.8 FD points over his last eight games should lock him into plenty of lineups at his salary.
Key Values
Grayson Allen, PHO vs. TOR ($6,400)
Allen leveraged Devin Booker's absence in Tuesday's overtime win over the Nuggets to score 49 FD points, his third tally over 40 in the last 11 games. The veteran sharpshooter has drained 40.5 percent of his attempts from distance over the entirety of that span as well, and Thursday, he'll be in position for another performance that could outpace his salary. The Raptors check in allowing an NBA-high 28.0 offensive efficiency rating to small forwards, along with 49.6 percent shooting to the position, including 41.5 percent from three-point range. Toronto is also conceding an NBA-high 48.7 FD points per contest to threes in the last 15 games, furthering Allen's case at a salary he's already provided more than 5x return on in 10 instances this season.
Duncan Robinson, MIA at DAL ($5,900)
Robinson is another wing set to benefit from a key absence on his team Thursday, as Tyler Herro continues sidelined for Miami. Robinson is averaging 29.2 FD points per contest during his current five-game starting run despite a couple of inefficient games from the field, and zooming out further, he's shooting 48.3 percent, including 45.2 percent from behind the arc, over his last eight contests overall. The Mavs make for a good target as well, considering they've allowed 39.3 percent three-point shooting to two-guards and 43.3 FD points per contest to the position in the last seven games.
Simone Fontecchio, DET vs. BKN ($5,100)
Fontecchio has proven a good fit thus far in the Motor City, averaging 24.2 FD points and shooting 46.7 percent, including 41.5 percent from three-point range, over the 10 games since his trade from the Jazz. The second-year wing has exceeded 30 FD points on four occasions during that span as well, with only one of those instances coming in a start. The upside makes Fontecchio an intriguing play at his salary Thursday against a Nets squad that's allowing 40.1 percent three-point shooting to small forwards and 41.5 FD points per game to the position on the season.
ALSO CONSIDER: Keldon Johnson, SAN at SAC ($5,700); Dorian Finney-Smith, BKN at DET ($4,900)
