The Eastern Conference Semifinals got underway Sunday with Game 1 between Boston and Toronto. On the other side of the bracket, Milwaukee meets Miami in another highly anticipated second-round matchup.
After dropping Game 1 in alarming fashion, the Bucks bounced back to dispatch the Magic in five games in Round 1. The Heat needed only four games to take care of the Pacers, who averaged just 100.8 points per game against Miami's defense.
With Game 1 set to tip off Monday night (6:30 p.m. ET), let's dig into the matchup.
ROUND 1 RECAP
Bucks
Top Performers vs. Magic
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (58.6 FP)
- Khris Middleton (31.8 FP)
- Eric Bledsoe (29.2 FP)
While the Bucks took care of the Magic in five games, it wasn't an especially convincing series. The Bucks lost two of the four factors (TOV%, FT/FGA) and only Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged more than 15 points. Khris Middleton's struggles were concerning, as he shot just 36/38/65 and had 17 turnovers to only 26 assists. Eric Bledsoe also went just 5-for-18 on threes.
While Milwaukee's offense struggled as a whole, most of that was in transition. The Bucks still managed the playoffs' fourth-best halfcourt offense (104.1 points per 100 plays). If Milwaukee can find a way to improve that, it will go a long way against Miami.
Heat
Top Performers vs. Pacers
- Bam Adebayo (40.1 FP)
- Jimmy Butler (38.8 FP)
- Goran Dragic (36.3 FP)
The Heat pulled off a relatively surprising sweep of the Pacers, averaging nearly 11 more points per game than Indiana. Even more surprisingly, Goran Dragic was the Heat's leading scorer, averaging 22.8 points per game on 48/41/58 shooting. Tyler Herro came up big as well, averaging 16.5 points on 46/36/82 shooting.
Overall, the Heat shot 39.1 percent from three. While that's likely to regress a little bit, the Bucks give up plenty of three-pointers, so if the Heat stay hot, Milwaukee will be in trouble. The inverse of Milwaukee, Miami dominated the transition game while their halfcourt offense ranked just 11th-best in the playoffs (94.7 points per 100 plays). That's a bit of a concern against the Bucks' elite defense.
REGULAR SEASON MEETINGS
| Team | ORTG | eFG% | ORB% | TOV% | FT/FGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucks | 106.3 | 53.0 | 14.9 | 14.7 | 28.5 |
| Heat | 108.5 | 54.8 | 17.4 | 14.7 | 23.4 |
The Heat got the better of the regular-season series despite the Bucks having all key players available for each of the three games, while Goran Dragic played in only two games and Jimmy Butler played in just one. While Antetokounmpo wasn't slowed down a ton (25.0 PPG on 55.4 FG%), he did commit more turnovers than assists. Middleton also shot just 43.5 FG%, Lopez shot 41.2%, Korver shot 25.0% and Bledsoe shot 42.9%. The Heat are not strangers to physical defense and will gladly send teams to the line rather than let them get too comfortable, which is what they did to Milwaukee.
While Miami sent the Bucks to the line, the Heat managed to be more efficient from the field, win the offensive rebounding battle and keep turnovers even. And that was with Dragic and Bam Adebayo not shooting well, combining to go just 24-of-66 from the field. Some positive regression should be in store there, and the addition of Butler to the series will only make things easier for Miami. Based on previous matchups, the Heat seem to have the advantage in the series.
BETTING ODDS
Even with Miami sweeping through Indiana in Round 1 -- and the Bucks looking less-than-all-time-great against Orlando -- Milwaukee is still heavily favored to win the series. At the DraftKings Sportsbook, Milwaukee is a -385 favorite, with Miami listed at +290.
The most likely outcome is a five-game Bucks win (+275), followed by Bucks in six (+310), Bucks in four (+340) and Bucks in seven (+485). Miami is 8-to-1 to win in seven and 11-to-1 to win the series in six games.
Considering Miami played the Bucks as tough as any team in the league this season, there's some value to be had in backing the Heat. The Bucks are the safer bet for a reason, but with a rotation that's yet to exert its full force of will in the bubble, not to mention a banged-up Eric Bledsoe, Milwaukee will have to clean things up considerably to take the series in the expected five games. If the Bucks play the same series against Miami that they did against Orlando, the Heat probably win in five or six games.
Milwaukee's offense -- 10th-best in the playoffs -- remains something of a question mark, but the Bucks were still a dominant defensive team (101.9 DRTG) against Orlando. Miami certainly brings more weapons to the table, including a sharpshooter in Duncan Robinson who helped lead the Heat to the league's second-best three-point conversion rate during the regular season. No team surrenders more three-point looks than the Bucks, so the chess match between Erik Spoelstra and Mike Budenholzer will be something to monitor early in the series. Milwaukee won't be content to let Robinson fire from the corners, but selling out to stop the Heat's shooters may wreak havoc on the Bucks' defensive scheme.
For Monday's Game 1, the Bucks are installed as a 5.5-point favorite and -240 on the moneyline. The Bucks took the Aug. 6 seeding-game matchup in overtime, though Miami was without both Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic, so the teams haven't met at full strength since March 2. In that game, the Heat handed Milwaukee its second-worst loss of the season, winning 105-89 while Giannis Antetokounmpo was limited to just 13 points, and two free throw attempts, in 31 minutes.
