NBA: Raptors-Celtics Series Preview

Both the Raptors and Celtics were able to sweep their respective Round 1 opponent, but now a real challenge awaits. Game 1 of the Raptors-Celtics series starts 6:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, and the Raptors are the early favorite, though not by much.

ROUND 1 RECAP

Raptors

Top Performers vs. Nets

• Fred VanVleet (41.7 Fantasy Points Per Game)
• Pascal Siakam (39.2 FP)
• Serge Ibaka (37.6 FP)
• Kyle Lowry (34.0 FP)

How much can we really garner from a sweep of a Nets team that was one of the worst in playoff history? Toronto had a point differential of +17.9, leading the playoffs. One area of concern might be the Raptors' subpar rebounding -- 11th in the playoffs in offensive rebound rate and 10th in defensive rebound rate -- but the Celtics aren't an especially intimidating rebounding team.

Toronto shot great as a whole (50/43/79), but much of that was from role players. Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry and Marc Gasol still have room for improvement -- the trio shooting a combined 52-of-131 (39.5%) from the field. Things won't get easier against Boston, but some positive regression is clearly due for those three players, and they could make for good DFS targets out of the gate. Meanwhile, Serge Ibaka (73.9 TS%), Norman Powell (73.8 TS%) and Fred VanVleet (71.5 TS%) will cool off. That said, Ibaka's rebounding (team-high 41 total boards) could help him maintain a high floor against the Celtics, and he had the second-highest usage rate on the team (25.1%), only behind Siakam.

Celtics

Top performers vs. 76ers

• Jayson Tatum (50.0 FP)
• Kemba Walker (40.0 FP)
• Jaylen Brown (33.4 FP)

The Celtics dismantled the Ben-Simmons-less 76ers, who appeared to give up early in the series. Jayson Tatum was locked in, averaging 27.0 points on 49/45/72 shooting, 9.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.3 blocks. Kemba Walker also began to look like himself, averaging 24.3 points on 49/30/92 shooting, 4.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.3 steals. Neither player figures to be in for massive regression moving forward, though scoring against Toronto will obviously be more challenging. There is still room for improvement from Boston's key role players though, especially Daniel Theis and Marcus Smart, who shot a combined 5-for-30 from beyond the arc.

One area of concern for the Celtics going forward will be shot selection. Boston has the highest mid-range shot frequency in the playoffs, fueling a third-to-worst expected effective field-goal percentage based on location (53.3). They shot under that mark in the series against Philly, posting a 51.4 eFG%. That difference is probably explained simply as Smart and Theis going cold from three, but if Boston wants to upset Toronto, they'll likely have to beat them in areas besides shooting efficiency. And since neither team is strong on the glass, Boston may have to focus on winning the turnover battle night after night.

REGULAR SEASON MEETINGS

The Celtics dominated this matchup during the four regular-season meetings, but it's important to consider that the Raptors were at less than full strength. Pascal Siakam, Norman Powell and Marc Gasol played in just two of the contests. All of Boston's regulars were available for all four games except Marcus Smart, who appeared in three. But now the tables have turned, with Toronto at full strength and Boston missing Gordon Hayward, who left the bubble for treatment on a severely sprained ankle.

Boston got the upper hand by dominating the offensive glass and committing fewer turnovers than Toronto, ultimately winning the possession game. However, it has to be a concern that the Raptors, despite their key absences, were still able to be more efficient shooting the ball and have a comparable free-throw rate. At full strength, the Raptors should be able to increase the gap in shooting efficiency while closing the gap in rebounding and turnovers. Jayson Tatum also did not have an easy time against the Raptors, shooting just 38/37/81 en route to 16.5 points per game. Even more defensive focus will be on him now with Hayward sidelined.

BETTING ODDS

The DraftKings sportsbook has the Raptors as -152 favorites and the Celtics as +125 underdogs, with a Raptors 4-3 victory being the most likely outcome (+350). That's about where I stand as well, though I might lean toward Raptors in six (+400).

With both teams being so good, it's hard to say there's immense value on either side of the equation, but I'd lean on the Raptors taking the series. Given the thinness of Boston's bench, the Hayward loss could prove close-to-fatal in and of itself, and Toronto should be able to overwhelm with its overall talent in addition to having the Coach of the Year in Nick Nurse calling the shots.

The Game 1 spread is set at Toronto -2.0. The over/under is set at a modest 216.5. While Toronto pushed the pace (103.5) in Round 1, the Celtics got caught in the slog with a 95.2 pace. On one hand, it's tempting to take the under given that these two defensive-minded teams should end up in a slugfest. On the other hand, they combined to average 238.6 points per game in the first round. I'd be comfortable taking the Raptors' spread (assuming Kyle Lowry -- who is questionable -- plays), but there are too many confounding variables for me to be interested in an over/under wager.