This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Heat to win (+105) at Hawks -- WynnBET, 1:02 PM CT
This is a risky line to take with Clint Capela possibly returning for Atlanta, though Bogdan Bogdanovic is out, and Danilo Gallinari might be sidelined. Still, the Heat are down Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry. Even with that being the case, I'm interested in the Heat side for two reasons. The first is that Miami has had Atlanta's number this season, outscoring the Hawks by 30 points in their two matchups. The second is that Miami continues to play above expectations while Atlanta is playing below expectations. Over the past two weeks, the Heat are +8.3 points ATS, while the Hawks are -6.6 ATS.
Pistons to cover +13 (-110) at Jazz -- WynnBET, 1:02 PM CT
This is a pretty big number with Donovan Mitchell out and Rudy Gobert questionable. Even though it's at home for Utah, they won't be able to run through Detroit too easily if Mitchell and Gobert are out. Plus, the Jazz have struggled lately, with the league's worst ATS differential (-10.8) over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the Pistons have been solid, going +1.6 ATS over the past 14 days.
Anfernee Simons over 19.5 points at Celtics -- WynnBET, 2:49 PM CT
We're getting closer to the point where Simons' points o/u is correctly in line, but we're not there yet. The 22-year-old is obviously thriving in his role as the starter sans Damian Lillard (abdomen), averaging 26.3 points per game, but I'd bet this just given the matchup considering the Celtics allow the highest three-point percentage to opposing point guards. I'd be lying if I said I'm not worried this game is the lowest total over/under on Friday's slate, but I do think Simons will be the main offensive catalyst as opposed to Jusuf Nurkic or CJ McCollum.