Feast Week enters its sixth day, and, while we don't have any of the usual blue blood programs on today's slate, we nonetheless still have plenty of options to consider. Here are my selections for Saturday's action, exclusively featuring mid-major programs this time around.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Stephen F. Austin 
at UT Arlington
The weakest part of this matchup is UT Arlington's offense, which ranks 240th in adjusted efficiency. In addition to the Mavericks' inability to hit long-range shots, with three-pointers accounting for just 24 percent of their total points, 322nd in the nation, UT Arlington also has a colossal turnover problem. The Mavs have the fourth-worst offensive turnover percentage among all 365 D-1 teams, so this problem cannot be overstated. Furthermore, UT Arlington ranks 360th in non-steal turnovers, meaning the giveaways are often self-inflicted.
It's hard to win any game with offensive traits like these, and it doesn't help that Saturday's opponent is above average in several defensive categories. Stephen F. Austin ranks 132nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and ranks above average in defensive turnover percentage, so it is likely to help extend UT Arlington's turnover issues. The Lumberjacks are also stout in the paint, holding opponents to 46 percent from the field on two-point attempts, the 53rd-best mark in the nation. This is another crucial note considering UT Arlington scores 57 percent of
Feast Week enters its sixth day, and, while we don't have any of the usual blue blood programs on today's slate, we nonetheless still have plenty of options to consider. Here are my selections for Saturday's action, exclusively featuring mid-major programs this time around.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, player performance and the transfer portal, head RotoWire's latest college basketball news page or follow @RotoWireCBB on X.
Stephen F. Austin at UT Arlington
The weakest part of this matchup is UT Arlington's offense, which ranks 240th in adjusted efficiency. In addition to the Mavericks' inability to hit long-range shots, with three-pointers accounting for just 24 percent of their total points, 322nd in the nation, UT Arlington also has a colossal turnover problem. The Mavs have the fourth-worst offensive turnover percentage among all 365 D-1 teams, so this problem cannot be overstated. Furthermore, UT Arlington ranks 360th in non-steal turnovers, meaning the giveaways are often self-inflicted.
It's hard to win any game with offensive traits like these, and it doesn't help that Saturday's opponent is above average in several defensive categories. Stephen F. Austin ranks 132nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and ranks above average in defensive turnover percentage, so it is likely to help extend UT Arlington's turnover issues. The Lumberjacks are also stout in the paint, holding opponents to 46 percent from the field on two-point attempts, the 53rd-best mark in the nation. This is another crucial note considering UT Arlington scores 57 percent of its total points inside the arc, the 27th-highest percentage.
SFA doesn't rank very high in offensive efficiency, but it still does several things well that shouldn't be overlooked. Specifically, the Lumberjacks rank in the top 110 of the nation in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and offensive rebounding.
Given SFA's offensive skill set and UT Arlington's lack of one, I gotta take the road team in this matchup. I'm going with the Lumberjacks.
College Basketball Best Bet: Stephen F. Austin -1
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Mercer 
vs. Elon 
On the surface, these two teams are strikingly similar. That is, both are substantially better on offense than defense.
That said, a closer look reveals a few key differences. First, while both teams rank among the top 150 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency, Elon takes the edge in many, if not most, key categories: efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and offensive rebounding percentage. The latter category needs emphasis, as the Phoenix rank 75th and they're going against a Mercer defense that ranks 332nd in defensive rebounding percentage.
I will admit upfront that Elon has terrible defensive numbers, so that's undoubtedly a liability in this matchup; but, at the same time, Mercer is hardly much better defensively. Considering Elon is the better offensive team, and it's playing at home, I'm taking the Phoenix in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Elon -1.5
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Cal Baptist at Oregon State 
The Lancers remain undefeated on the year with a 6-0 record, though KenPom suggests there's about a coin flip's chance they'll no longer be perfect after Saturday. After taking a closer look at the numbers, I believe a loss is more likely for a few reasons.
First, Cal Baptist's raw numbers are somewhat inflated by an extremely easy schedule thus far, ranking 360th in difficulty, per KenPom. And, on top of the quality of opponents, it also hasn't had to leave Southern California for any of its games. That will change on Saturday. Oregon State, in contrast, hasn't played any elite teams yet, but it's still challenged itself to a certain degree, ranking 245th in strength of schedule.
Second, Oregon State has the better offensive attack. The Beavers rank 161st in adjusted efficiency, not great by any means, but it's still a few ticks higher than Cal Baptist, which ranks 178th in the same category.
Third, in taking a closer look at the Beavers, they are proving to be highly proficient and driving to the basket and drawing contact, posting the 23rd-highest free-throw attempt rate in the nation. This is important because the Lancers rank 206th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, and Oregon State is knocking down 75 percent of its shots from the charity stripe, so this is an area that could potentially decide the game, especially if the score is close at the end.
It's sometimes hard to back a team that's mired in a losing streak, as is the case with Oregon State. Still, the Beavers are undefeated at home this season, having already defeated three opponents at a very similar level to Cal Baptist. For these reasons, I'm taking the Beavers in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon State -1.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Stephen F. Austin -1
- Elon -1.5
- Oregon State -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
