The mid-majors get all the spotlight for a night, as all the high-major conferences decided to take the night off. Regardless, there are still many intriguing matchups to consider. Coming off a sweep with yesterday's picks, here are my predictions for Thursday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, player performance and the transfer portal, head RotoWire's latest college basketball news page or follow @RotoWireCBB on X.
Queens at Florida Gulf Coast 
At a glance, these two teams are incredibly similar. Both are above-average offensively but woefully below average defensively. That said, a few differences emerge upon closer examination.
First, Queens' offense is more reliable, especially in the paint. The Royals rank over 50 spots higher than the Eagles in adjusted efficiency (73rd vs. 129th), and they're also much higher in effective field goal percentage (36th vs. 96th). Both are decent from the perimeter, making 36 percent of three-point attempts, but Queens is much better in the paint, making 58 percent of two-point attempts (32nd), over five percentage points higher than FGCU. The Royals are also dependable from the free-throw line, having made 75 percent, a mark that ranks 101st. This is a pertinent note in this matchup because the Eagles have had severe fouling issues, ranking in the bottom 40 nationally in free-throw attempt rate allowed. Queens should see an abundance of points from the foul line if this problem persists on Thursday.
Another note to consider is each team's strength of schedule. Queens has awful defensive numbers, in part because it played an incredibly challenging non-conference schedule. The Royals had the 44th-most difficult non-conference schedule, per KenPom, and faced the 71st-most difficult slate of offenses. FGCU, on the other hand, played a non-con schedule that ranked 162nd in difficulty, including a slate of offenses that was 172nd in difficulty.
All things considered, I'm taking the team that's more likely to score on any given possession. I'm going with the Royals.
College Basketball Best Bet: Queens -2.5
Starting in December, Missouri sports betting is live, and you can check in on the best Missouri sportsbook promos if you're located in the Show Me State.
Arkansas State 
at South Alabama 
Arkansas State has a couple of significant advantages heading into this matchup.
First, the Red Wolves are substantially better at rebounding on both ends of the court. This is especially relevant on the offensive end, where Arkansas State ranks in the top 25 nationally in rebounding percentage, while South Alabama ranks 273rd in defensive rebounding. Second-chance opportunities are a big deal in any matchup, and even more so in this one. KenPom data suggest that opposing offensive rebounds significantly affect South Alabama's defensive performance, more than turnovers. At the other end of the court, the Jaguars don't often grab offensive boards, ranking 287th in offensive rebounding percentage, and it's even less likely in this matchup, as the Red Wolves rank 65th in defensive rebounding.
Second, Arkansas State is the better offensive team. The Red Wolves rank much higher in adjusted efficiency: 131st for Arkansas State, compared to 224th for South Alabama, and this has continued into the conference season. Against league opponents, the Red Wolves boast the second-highest efficiency rating in the Sun Belt, while the Jaguars come in with the seventh-highest. It's also worth noting that Arkansas State struggled to score from the perimeter early in the season but has gotten hot recently, making 35 percent of three-point attempts against conference opponents.
Given a short spread, I'm laying the points with the Red Wolves.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arkansas State -3.5
Check out Caesars Sportsbook this season and use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code for one of the top college basketball betting promos out there.
Northern Colorado 
at Portland State 
The key to this game, I believe, is Northern Colorado's offense. The Bears rank 128th in adjusted efficiency and are solid across most fundamentals. They make 58 percent of two-point attempts (42nd), 35 percent of three-point attempts (126th), and don't turn the ball over often; they rank 121st in turnover percentage. Northern Colorado is also reliable at the charity stripe, having made 76 percent of its foul shots (66th). That will almost certainly come into play on Thursday, as Portland State has struggled to get stops without fouling. The Vikings are among the worst in the nation in this area, recording the 11th-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed among all D-1 teams.
When playing in the other direction, Northern Colorado hasn't played nearly as well, but neither has Portland State. The Vikings rank outside the top 200 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency and give the ball away at an alarming frequency. The Bears' defense doesn't cause turnovers often, but in this case, it might not matter. Portland State ranks 259th in non-steal turnover percentage, suggesting that many turnovers are more likely to be self-induced than the result of a crafty defensive steal.
The Bears, meanwhile, have a sub-par defensive efficiency rating, but they are among the best at boxing out and defending the perimeter. Northern Colorado boasts the 15th-highest defensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams and has held opponents to under 30 percent on three-point attempts (27th).
The Bears already won a tough road game, defeating Colorado at the end of December, proving they can win challenging games. The Vikings, on the other hand, have not. They also played at Colorado, but lost by 11 points. I'm taking the points with Northern Colorado in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Northern Colorado +3.5
Check out BetMGM Sportsbook to bet on National Championship Odds, and use this BetMGM Bonus Code for a great welcome offer.
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Queens -2.5
- Arkansas State -3.5
- Northern Colorado +3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
