Feast week heats up as additional tournaments tip off all across the country. Today's betting picks feature select matchups from the Players Era Festival.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Houston 
vs. Tennessee 
Before taking a closer look at the numbers, I was leaning towards Houston because it narrowly edges out Tennessee in overall efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.
That said, I came to a different conclusion when I took into account all the other variables. Namely, the Volunteers are proving to have an elite frontcourt. Tennessee leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, and it ranks 11th in two-point field goal percentage allowed. The former is an area that the Vols can potentially exploit in Tuesday's matchup, as the Cougars are 150th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Houston's other area of concern in this matchup is its offense. This has been the Achilles' heel for Kelvin Sampson's teams over the past several years, and it is once again true this season. The Cougars rank 177th in effective field goal percentage and 356th in free-throw attempt rate, making it harder to trust their offensive attack at this stage of the season. They can undoubtedly overcome this against lesser teams, but an elite defensive squad like Tennessee will often expose such weaknesses.
Considering this game will likely come down to the last possession or two, I have to take the points with the Vols.
College Basketball Best Bet: Tennessee +3.5
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Gonzaga 
vs. Maryland 
I'm never one to blindly ride a favorite against what looks like an inferior team, but in this case, Gonzaga appears to have a massive advantage in the paint.
Specifically, the Bulldogs are among the best in the nation at snagging boards, ranking 21st in offensive rebounding percentage among D-1 teams. This is a significant trait against any opponent, and even more so against the Terrapins, which rank 167th in defensive rebounding percentage. Gonzaga has made 61 percent of its two-pointers this season, the 27th-highest mark, so it has a good chance of making Maryland pay if the Terps miss their box-out assignments.
The other glaring issue for Maryland is its underwhelming offensive numbers. Aside from a low efficiency rating, the third-worst among Big Ten teams, the Terps also rank outside the top 120 teams in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and offensive rebounding percentage.
KenPom is projecting a final score of 82-70, so the current spread is still within reach. I'd obviously prefer a spread of 12, but I don't believe Maryland has proven it has enough firepower to stay in the game for 40 minutes, especially given Gonzaga's elite defense.
For these reasons, I'm laying the points with the Bulldogs in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Gonzaga -13.5
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Oregon 
vs. San Diego State
The Ducks often find a way to go dancing in March, but I'm not so sure that will happen this year.
Oregon ranks in the top 25 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and free-throw attempt rate, but it is far below the D-1 average in several other key categories. The Ducks are outside the top 220 teams in free-throw, two-point, and three-point field goal percentages. They are also 281st in offensive turnover percentage, which is the most foreboding stat of all, considering Wednesday's opponent. San Diego State has consistently fielded an elite defense for many years, and this year's group ranks 37th in defensive turnover percentage.
It's easy to overreact to SDSU's destruction at the hands of Michigan on Monday evening, but KenPom's data still says SDSU has the edge in this matchup. The Aztecs have better adjusted efficiency ratings than the Ducks, both offensively and defensively, and overall.
Oregon has a way of playing at its best when its back is to the wall, but I'm not sure it can out-grit San Diego State on Wednesday. I'm going with the Aztecs.
College Basketball Best Bet: San Diego State +2.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Tennessee +3.5
- Gonzaga -13.5
- San Diego State +2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
