This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
College Basketball DFS: Picks for Thursday's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
Thursday and Friday represent the last time we'll have college hoops DFS with more than two games on a slate, and we know how difficult is to differentiate when the pickings are that slim. So DraftKings' $75,000 prize pool Thursday is a great time to another swing at things.
The slate tips off at 7:09 p.m. EDT with Alabama - BYU and it's massive 175.5 point expectancy that's going to have everyone stacking it, somewhat lazily. We've got just two players priced above $9,000, and a host of options under $8,000 that are interesting, so we should be able to build from heavy balance, which in turn means the higher-priced options may come with lower roster percentages. If you're a multi-entry guy, absolutely follow both strategies. Arkansas - Texas Tech has the slate's lowest total at 147.5, nothing to scoff at, so all eight teams can be considered.
Injuries to watch are in the nightcap, where Arkansas could welcome back Adou Thiero ($7,000) and Texas Tech Chance McMillian ($4,600), potentially throwing off the rotations we've grown accustomed to over the last few games.
College Basketball DFS Top Players
Ja'Kobi Gillespie, G, Maryland ($7,900)
Loyal readers throughout the year know I prefer to build with high-end, stable forwards with the thought we can find guards anywhere. That completely changes in March when ball-dominant backcourt options shine and often crash the glass more than the regular season. Gillespie has taken double-digit shots in six straight, averaging a diverse 12.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.3 steals, playing 33.5 minutes. He's not a foul risk, so he'll have every chance to provide us a 4x return.
Mark Sears, G, Alabama ($7,700)
I'd expect heavy roster percentages on Sears as the price is so low, having peaked at $10,400 in season. He'd give us a second undersized guard, which doesn't sound ideal, and Sears is more of a volume scorer than a multi-category contributor, further causing pause. But perhaps we can throw all those worries out of the window when we consider the game's immense point total. Sears is absolutely boom or bust, but if he's heavily rostered, the bust isn't that great.
Darrion Williams, F, Texas Tech ($7,600)
I'm expecting heavy roster percentages for BYU's Richie Saunders ($7,300) given the expected points and that he's the Cougars only double-digit averaging scorer over their last five. One of the underlying themes on this slate is we have deep rotations from Duke, Alabama, Arkansas, BYU and, to a lesser degree, Florida and Arizona. Texas Tech and Maryland, on the other hand, play their starters for as many minutes as possible, creating more of a sure thing. Williams floor honestly isn't as stable as the minutes suggest, but he's a diverse player who had a massive 47.5 DKP last time out. He's taken double-digit shots in three straight and five of six, showing a 25.1 percent usage rate.
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Middle Tier
Thomas Haugh, F, Florida ($5,400)
The Gators have an implied total of 81.5 points, but they're a tricky team to target on this slate. Maryland defends the 3-point shot well, ranking 15th at 30.2 percent. I'm not writing off any of Florida's guards, and Alijah Martin ($6,000) or Will Richard ($6,200) are certainly viable in this tier. But for slightly cheaper, we can get a guy that's averaging 11.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.1 assists in his last seven games since moving into a reserve role. He's been under 20 DKP in six of those seven with an 18.75 point floor. That's right around 3.5x, gets us a non-punt, non-ceiling forward and can keep buying guards to build around.
Rodney Rice, G, Maryland ($5,300)
I'm intentionally ignoring the players in the $6,000 range, not because they are bad players, but because I find there to be enough warts, be it form or matchup, that I'd simply prefer those same warts for a lower price while trying to squeeze as many high-end options in as possible. Rice has the green light to hoist from deep as often as he'd like but faces a Gators lineup that ranks fifth nationally in 3-point defense, allowing just a 29.3 make percentage. Not ideal, but if he hits three of his likely seven attempts, the floor starts to come into focus. Mix in 30+ minutes and a handful of other stats, and Rice can be okay enough when paired with a higher-end option.
Grant Nelson, F, Alabama ($5,200)
This is a weird matchup in that BYU has the size advantage in the backcourt, but 'Bama has it up front. Nelson's fit is somewhere in between, as he's big, but is a stretch guy. Minutes aren't massive, but I think Nelson can find success shooting from deep but also getting the ball on the arch and dribbling into the lane with athleticism. He'd give a second piece into a Tide side that's expected to flirt with 90 points, and one that is likely to come with far lower roster percentages.
Monitor usage rates and other recent trends to identify ideal DFS selections on our advanced college basketball lineups page.
College Basketball DFS Value Plays
Boogie Fland, G, Arkansas ($4,800)
Thiero's potential return is a wrench, and Fland hasn't been elite in his return to action. But we're taking big swings here, and Fland has shown an 8x+ ceiling prior to injury. We're not getting that, but you have to assume Fland is on the court late in the game and is a vital part of Arkansas potentially advancing. He's taken 15 shots in two games since returning across 44 minutes. They haven't fallen, but rust should have been expected. He's provided a 3.4x return in the last two games. If the minutes rise, or the shots fall, that elevates If both happen...
Dallin Hall, G, BYU ($3,900)
Hall's profile isn't one of fantasy stability, as he's scored in single-digits in five straight, seeing his 3-point attempts cut in half from his season-totals. But he's the team's second-leading facilitator at 4.2 assists nightly, and if the game plays to the pace expected, those chances should remain or increase. And while the attempts are down, Hall is a steady outside shooter. Six points, four rebounds and two assists at a sub 4k price can still work.
Patrick Ngongba, F, Duke ($3,700)
Ngongba has been quietly trending upward, playing double-digit minutes in five straight and in 10 of his last 11. He's been an energy guy for the Blue Devils that can give us some much-needed salary relief in the front court and not put up zero fantasy points. He's averaged 8.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and an assist over his last five, which can get us well north of a 4x return.
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