This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Ten games are featured on Thursday's DraftKings slate, with a $2k top prize in the $12 Heating Up contest. Let's take a look at today's implied totals – with Gonzaga leading the way as usual – before jumping into the recommended plays.
Top Players
Andrew Nembhard, G, Gonzaga ($7,500 DK, $7,700 FD)
Gonzaga is the top-ranked team in the country, and with the second-best adjusted offensive efficiency rating in D1, the Bulldogs are projected to score the most points on the slate. It's hard to argue against taking Chet Holmgren or Drew Timme, although I might suggest Andrew Nembhard if you're looking for someone at a slightly lower salary and yet also with a high upside. As the only Bulldog averaging over 30 minutes per game, Nembhard leads the team in minutes, in addition to steals and assists. Since conference season started, Nembhard boasts the highest offensive efficiency rating in the WCC and has the second-highest assist rate in the conference. Whether he's scoring or facilitating, the starting point guard is a significant factor on the team. This is true now more than ever, as he's played 36-plus minutes in each of the last three games, putting up 30-plus fantasy points (DK) in each game. Overall, Nembhard has scored 30-plus fantasy points in nine of his last 11 games, including the first meeting between Gonzaga and San Francisco back on January 20. Nembhard had a productive game the first time around, giving us all the more reason to take a chance on the point guard.
Christian Koloko, F, Arizona ($7,100 DK, $6,500 FD)
Utah's defense is shaky, ranking second-worst in the Pac-12 in efficiency since conference season started. Utah is also one of the weaker rebounding teams in the conference, ranking well below-average in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates against Pac-12 opponents. The Wildcats have the highest offensive rebounding rate in the conference, so Arizona's frontcourt should significantly benefit in this matchup. Christian Koloko leads the team in rebounding and rebounding rate, a prime target given the matchup advantage. Koloko is also more than capable of scoring when called upon, as he has the seventh-best offensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 during conference play, as well as boasting the highest effective field goal percentage in the conference. Azuolas Tubelis is another strong option considering the matchup note.
Middle Tier
Jalen Duren, F, Memphis ($6,700 DK, $6,100 FD)
On the surface, Temple's defense appears to match up evenly with Memphis' offense, although a closer look reveals a significant discrepancy: rebounding. Memphis is collecting offensive rebounds at the seventh-highest rate in the country, while Temple hasn't been quite as successful, ranking No. 246 in defensive rebounding rate. The story remains the same during conference play, with Memphis boasting the highest offensive rebounding rate in the AAC, and Temple way behind with a defensive rebounding rate that ranks fourth-worst in the conference. Jalen Duren leads the Tigers in rebounding, so he's a natural beneficiary in this situation. Duren is a great all-around player, ranking among the top in the AAC in several categories: third-highest offensive rebounding rate, third-highest block rate, second-highest two-point field goal percentage, 19th in offensive efficiency rating and 23rd in usage rate, using 22 percent of his teams' possessions when on the court. Duren has scored in double figures in seven straight games and recently had a stretch of three straight games with a double-double. Based on today's matchup, he's got a good chance at recording another one.
Chevez Goodwin, F, USC ($6,000 DK, $5,800 FD)
The most significant note for this matchup is that Oregon State, along with Arizona State, is the worst rebounding team in the conference. Chevez Goodwin has the second-most rebounds for the Trojans, so he should dominate the glass as long as he's in the game. The Beavers are also extremely soft defensively, with their efficiency ranking last in the conference, by a mile. Opponents are scoring inside of Oregon State's defense with ease, as Pac-12 foes are making over 58 percent of two-point attempts, the worst percentage allowed in the conference by a wide margin. Goodwin leads the team in two-point field goals, so there's no doubt he'll challenge the Beavers' defense. USC already played against Oregon State back on Jan. 13, and Goodwin had an effective performance, putting up a double-double as he earned KenPom's unofficial "MVP" honors for his effort.
Value Plays
Jalen Terry, G, DePaul ($5,900 DK)
Georgetown's defense is awful. It's no surprise the Hoyas still haven't won a conference game when their defense ranks last in the Big East in defensive efficiency, two-point field goal percentage allowed and three-point field goal percentage allowed. Naturally, DePaul is projected to score well over 70 points, giving us another intriguing team for DFS. Jalen Terry has seen a significant increase in playing time lately, averaging 39 minutes in his last six games. Terry is coming off a relatively disappointing performance against a tough Seton Hall team but had previously scored 24-plus fantasy points (DK) in four-straight games before his streak was snapped. If today's matchup is any indication, Terry has a good chance at starting a new streak.
Dominique Clifford, G, Colorado ($4,700 DK)
As previously mentioned above, Arizona State, along with Oregon State, is the worst rebounding team in the conference. Nique Clifford has the second-most rebounds for Colorado, so he'll likely have a productive day on the glass when it's all said and done. Clifford wasn't scoring much early in the season but has been more aggressive lately, scoring in double figures in four of his last five games. This has also coincided with additional playing time, as Clifford is averaging over 29 minutes in his last three games. Clifford has come close to a double-double in several instances this season, and based on his recent upward trends, I'm thinking Thursday could be the day he gets his first one of the season. Either way, he should provide value given his modest salary.
