The mid-majors get some of the spotlight on Thursday night's slate, as most of the high-major teams have the night off. Here are my predictions for a trio of games tipping off from the West Coast.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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UC Davis 
at UC Santa Barbara
Neither team has played well defensively, though one in particular has more severe issues than the other.
Specifically, UC Santa Barbara has a colossal problem with fouling. The Gauchos rank near the bottom of the nation in free-throw attempt rate allowed (353rd to be exact), a terrible trait in this matchup because UC Davis is highly effective at getting to the charity stripe. The Aggies have the 88th-highest free-throw attempt rate, and they have made 76 percent of foul shots, so this is a key area of concern if you're UCSB.
Similarly, the other concern for the Gauchos is their soft interior defense. UCSB has allowed opponents to make almost 54 percent of their two-point attempts (251st), which again plays right into UCD's hands. The Aggies have made nearly 57 percent of their two-point attempts, a mark that ranks in the top 20 percent nationally.
When playing in the other direction, the Gauchos are much better, although they again have a critical flaw that the Aggies can exploit. UCSB often gives the ball away, ranking outside the top 280 teams in offensive turnover percentage. This is ideal for UCD's defense, which ranks 77th nationally in turnover percentage.
Considering these facts, I have to go with the Aggies in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: UC Davis +4.5
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Ohio State 
at Oregon 
Oregon has a significant advantage on the glass thanks to star seven-foot center Nate Bittle. Through conference play, the Ducks have the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage, substantially higher than the Buckeyes' defense, which has posted the Big Ten's fourth-worst rebounding rate. Additionally, Oregon has been effective at drawing fouls, ranking fourth in Big Ten play, while Ohio State ranks below the conference average in sending opponents to the charity stripe.
The other key for Oregon is its frontcourt defense, which has held conference opponents to the league's third-lowest two-point field goal percentage. Ohio State, meanwhile, does most of its damage in the paint, having made the third-highest percentage of two-point attempts against Big Ten opponents.
Another note to consider: Oregon starting point guard Jackson Shelstad was unavailable for the team's recent road trip and is currently listed as day-to-day. If he plays on Thursday, it should provide Oregon with a noticeable boost.
I'd feel better about this pick if Jackson Shelstad were already cleared to play, but even so, Oregon's apparent edge in this matchup stems from its ability to defend the paint and generate second-chance opportunities. I'm going with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon -3
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San Francisco 
at LMU
My money's on the road team for three key reasons.
First, while LMU's defense has put up respectable numbers, it has one major weakness. It doesn't consistently box out, ranking outside the top 230 teams in rebounding percentage. This is an area San Francisco can exploit, as its offensive rebounding rate ranks 123rd. Another concern with LMU's defense is that it wasn't tested much before the conference season, ranking 310th in non-conference strength of schedule. In four conference games, LMU has allowed at least 78 points on three occasions, losing each time.
Another reason I prefer San Francisco in this matchup is that its offense is substantially better than LMU's. The Dons rank 114th in adjusted offensive efficiency, significantly higher than the Lions (201st), and they also rank substantially higher in the following offensive categories: turnovers, rebounding, free-throw attempts, and two-point field goal percentage.
Lastly, San Francisco has a stronger resume to date. Per KenPom, the Dons have already logged quality wins against Minnesota (on the road), Mississippi State (on the road), and Seattle (again on the road). The Lions, in contrast, have had four opportunities for a quality win, and they lost all four by a combined 72 points.
For these reasons, I'm backing the Dons on Thursday.
College Basketball Best Bet: San Francisco +1.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- UC Davis +4.5
- Oregon -3
- San Francisco +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
