NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Region

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After the 2023 NCAA Tournament was the first in history for all four No. 1 seeds to be knocked out prior to the Elite Eight, it remains to be seen if this year can produce a similar amount of drama. 

The Midwest region will have lots of expectations placed on it, with two Elite Eight teams from last year, No. 3 Creighton and No. 7 Texas, looking to make deep runs yet again. The Bluejays are looking even stronger than they were last year heading into March, while the Longhorns have stumbled their way into the tournament. 

Arguably, the team under the most scrutiny in the entire country is No. 1 seed Purdue. Last year, the Boilermakers became just the second top seed in NCAA history to lose to a 16 seed, as they crashed out in the Round of 64 to Fairleigh Dickinson. To make matters worse, Purdue lost to 15-seed St. Peter's in 2022. Likely back-to-back Player of the Year Zach Edey will look to flip the script on his team's March Madness fortunes. 

Despite being upset by Mississippi State in the SEC tournament, No. 2 seed Tennessee is as dangerous as anyone, boasting one of the best defenses in the nation. Conversely, No. 4 seed Kansas has been dealing with injuries to its two star players, Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar, making its outlook murky.

Of course, the Midwest isn't without its upset potential, as St. Peter's will look to replicate its Cinderella run to the Elite Eight from two years ago. McNeese has made it to the Big Dance for the first time since 2002 and will certainly look to leave a mark. Oregon is coming off an impressive run to win the Pac-12 tournament and is poised to carry its momentum forward. 

Now, let's break down the matchups and players that will determine the outcome of the Midwest region. 

THE FAVORITES

No. 1 Purdue- The Boilermakers have an opportunity to shake off their March Madness ghosts and prove that they are a legitimate contender. Purdue has surrounded Zach Edey with quality defenders and elite outside shooters, as their 40.8 three-point percentage ranked second in the country behind Kentucky. The health of Braden Smith will be crucial, as he has been battling a calf injury. 

No. 2 Tennessee- The Volunteer's adjusted defensive efficiency ranks third in the country, per KenPom. Dalton Knecht is more than capable of leading Tennessee on a deep run after winning SEC Player of the Year. The senior forward is averaging 21.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.8 assists on 46.5/39.7/76.4 shooting splits.

No. 3 Creighton- Despite being upset by Providence in the Big East tournament, Creighton is just a few weeks removed from blowing out No. 1 overall seed UConn 85-66. Ryan Kalkbrenner out-dueled star big man Donovan Clingan, showing how dominant he can be. On top of that, Creighton's three top scorers from its 2023 Elite Eight squad returned for this season. 

No. 4 Kansas- The Jayhawks are one of the toughest teams to gauge, as they have lost their last two games by a combined 50 points. While Hunter Dickinson (shoulder) is expected to return for the NCAA tournament, Kevin McCullar's knee injury is worrisome. However, Kansas has a championship pedigree after winning it all in 2022. 

CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 11 Oregon: The Ducks are entering the tournament as hot as anyone, taking down UCLA, Arizona and Colorado en route to a PAC-12 championship. N'Faly Dante has established himself as one of the best two-way bigs in the nation, averaging 16.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 1.7 steals and 1.5 assists in 2023-24. Dante also shot an absurd 70.2 percent from the field this season and will be crucial to the Ducks' success.

No. 15 St. Peter's: In reality, a single win for St. Peter's is unlikely, but I think everyone would love to see another Elite Eight berth for the Peacocks. On the back of Corey Washington's 24 points, the Peacocks took down Fairfield to win the MAAC tournament. Can he emerge as the next Doug Edert?

BIGGEST BUST

No. 4 Kansas- I think Kansas has a tough road ahead if it wants to make a deep run this March Madness. The health concerns to McCullar and Dickinson scare me, as KJ Adams is its only other player to average double-digit points. While I think the Jayhawks should be able to get past McNeese, a potential Round of 32 matchup with Gonzaga will be tough to come out victorious if their star players aren't at full strength.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 6 South Carolina- The Gamecocks aren't exactly coming into the NCAA Tournament hot, going 5-4 in their last nine outings, including a 31-point blowout loss to Auburn in the SEC Tournament. Despite having a significant seeding difference, South Carolina is only four spots above Oregon in KenPom's overall rankings. With B.J. Mack being the Gamecocks' tallest starter at 6-foot-8 and only averaging 4.8 rebounds and 0.5 blocks per game, N'Faly Dante should be able to cause serious issues on the interior. 

PLAYER TO WATCH

Zach Edey, C, Purdue: Edey is the obvious choice, but he is also the right choice. The 2024 Naismith Men's College Player of the Year recently became Purdue's all-time leading scorer and is one of the most dominant forces in the country. Edey is averaging 24.4 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.2 blocks and 2.1 assists. At 7-foot-4, Edey is just too much to handle for most teams on the interior, and he constantly puts opposition centers in foul trouble.

SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Purdue- I don't necessarily think Purdue has what it takes to go all the way, but I also don't believe they will suffer a disastrous upset for the third straight year. Zach Edey is simply too dominant on both sides of the ball, and they have the perimeter shooting to perfectly complement him. As long as Braden Smith is close to 100 percent, he should be able to keep the offense on track enough to make it to the Sweet 16. 

No. 5 Gonzaga- While there is no Chet Holmgren or Jalen Suggs to warrant the national attention Gonzaga has had in the past, the Bulldogs quietly have one of the best offenses in the country. Creighton transfer Ryan Nembhard is a consistent scorer and an elite distributor, as his 6.7 assists per contest this season ranks eighth in the NCAA. Gonzaga can also consider itself fortunate to be potentially run into a likely-hobbled Kansas team. 

No. 11 Oregon- As you can probably tell by now, I am high on Oregon's chances of making the Sweet 16. Sometimes, March Madness is about which teams can get hot at the right time, and the Ducks certainly fit the bill. Look out for freshman point guard Jackson Shelstad to establish himself on the biggest stage in college basketball after averaging 13.1 points per game this season.

No. 2 Tennessee- The Volunteers' combination of star power and elite defense makes them a scary force for anyone to run into in the tournament. Texas is not the powerhouse it was a year ago, and I feel confident Tennessee could overcome them in a potential Round of 32 meeting.

FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 2 Tennessee- Rick Barnes will look to lead Tennessee to its first Final Four appearance in program history. Outside of the dominance of Dalton Knecht, the Volunteers boast a stout frontcourt. Center Jonas Aidoo is averaging 11.9 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.9 blocks this season, helping clean up the glass while also deterring opponent's drives. Josiah-Jordan James is no slouch either, averaging 8.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.3 steals per game. If all goes according to my predictions, Tennessee would have a favorable matchup against Oregon in the Sweet 16 and then either Purdue or Gonzaga in the Elite Eight. While defense doesn't always win championships, it certainly can't hurt when trying to make the Final Four.