This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Alabama vs. LSU
One of the biggest matchups every year in the SEC does not fail to disappoint again this year. This game has brought plenty of thrills over the years from the dual between Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa in 2019, which resulted in an LSU victory as they went on to win a National Championship to the 9-6 overtime victory by LSU in 2011, which set up a rematch between the two teams in the National Championship which Alabama went on to win. Dating back to 2007, this game has determined the SEC West 14 times and the National Champion eight times. While this year's contest may not have the overarching SEC implications it typically has, it looks to be a de facto play-in game for the College Football Playoff. This will be the 89th matchup between these two teams, with Alabama holding a record of 56-27-5.
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Alabama vs. LSU Betting Odds for Week 11
Spread: Alabama -2.5 (Caesars Sportsbook); LSU +3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Alabama -135 (Caesars Sportsbook); LSU +120 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 58.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 58.5 (ESPNBet)
Alabama vs. LSU Betting Picks for Week 11
Both teams grade out well in the analytics. Alabama's offense ranks fifth in the nation in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush and 10th in EPA/Dropback, while its defense ranks sixth in both EPA/Rush and EPA/Dropback. On the other hand, LSU's offense ranks 29th in the nation in EPA/Rush and ninth in EPA/Dropback, while its defense ranks 33rd in EPA/Rush and 18th in EPA/Dropback.
Alabama is led by junior quarterback Jalen Milroe who has ranks fifth in the SEC in passing yards with 1,937 yards passing to go along with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions while adding 380 yards rushing and 12 rushing touchdowns. The SEC's fourth-best rushing attack also features two explosive running backs in Jam Miller and Justice Haynes, who have combined for 800 yards and 12 touchdowns of their own. On the outside, Alabama is led by receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard. The freshman Williams ranks third in the SEC with 702 receiving yards and is tied for first with seven receiving touchdowns, while Bernard has 463 yards and two touchdowns of his own.
LSU is led by junior quarterback Garrett Nussmeier who ranks second in the SEC with 2,627 passing yards to go along with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The LSU rushing attack has been stagnant for most of the season, but freshman Caden Durham has picked things up for them in recent weeks with 444 total yards and five total touchdowns in the last four games with a season total of 601 total yards and eight total touchdowns. LSU features a dynamic receiving corps with Kyren Lacy, Aaron Anderson and tight end Mason Taylor. Lacy leads the bunch with 618 yards and six touchdowns, while Anderson is close behind with 614 yards and four touchdowns. Taylor ranks third among tight ends in the SEC with 369 yards and two touchdowns.
Alabama vs. LSU Expert Pick: Over 58.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alabama vs. LSU Predictions for Week 11
While both teams grade out pretty well defensively, especially Alabama, there are some key things that stick out. LSU certainly favors the pass and likes to give their phenom quarterback Nussmeier every chance they can. In this, there is the ability to exploit an inexperienced Alabama secondary. With an injury to transfer safety Keon Sabb for the Crimson Tide, they now have three first-time starters on the back end in freshman Zabien Brown at corner, junior DeVonta Smith at husky (the terminology for the nickel back defender in Alabama's 4-2-5 Swarm Defense) and sophomore Bray Hubbard at free safety. The freshman Brown has had his fair share of freshman struggles in the base Cover 1 defense Alabama likes to employ. Brown has been burnt for big yardage or been caught for Pass Interference on numerous occasions which could lead to quick and easy points for LSU with the talent on the outside and at the quarterback position. Alabama also has one of the most explosive offenses in college football, as they are ranked in the top 10 with 51 plays of 20 yards or more.
LSU has also been susceptible to the run at times and the Alabama offense works best when they get their running backs involved in the rushing attack, which helps open up the deep and intermediate passing game for the Crimson Tide. If the Crimson Tide can stick to their game plan and use Miller and Haynes out of the backfield, it should keep a strong LSU pass rush at bay, allowing for wide receivers Williams and Bernard to create space and use great run-after-the-catch abilities to create big plays. All this considered I can see both teams using their strengths on offense to exploit holes in the opposing defense creating big plays for quick scoring drives. I like the over in this one.
