DFS Main Slate Primer: Week 12

We can decompress this week after the craziness of last weekend. We had that massive LSU-Alabama game that lived to the hype. Minnesota got the big upset over Penn State. Arkansas got stomped by Western Kentucky and Chad Morris got fired. This week may struggle to live up to that, but there is still a lot of intrigue in the DFS slate. I've got some stats, facts, and recommendations ready for you. All the numbers in parentheses after the stats are FBS rankings. All the prices are DraftKings, since FanDuel puts up its schedule for Saturday late. The recommendations, if not the prices, can still work there. Let's kick this off!

Cheat Sheet

Alabama (-21) at Mississippi State O/U 63.0 12:00 PM ET

Alabama stats: 65.9 plays per game (104), 501.7 yards per game (7), 18.7 points allowed per game (14), 335.8 yards allowed per game (27)

Mississippi State stats: 66.2 plays per game (83), 407.8 yards per game (58), 30.2 points allowed per game (79), 389.4 yards allowed per game (56)

Bulldogs fans are probably wary of this one. Alabama is coming off a tough loss at home to LSU. The Tide managed to score 41, but they allowed 46 to the Tigers' elite offense. However, even with that Alabama is still 14th in points allowed per game. They aren't going to face another matchup that tough. Will the Tide be taking out their frustrations on the poor Bulldogs? I wouldn't put it past Nick Saban and company.

If there is any opportunity for a truly good value in the Alabama offense, it's Najee Harris ($6,400). That's not because they lack talent, of course. It's because most of the Tide's top players come at top-flight prices as well. Harris is a little cheaper. In fact, he's less expensive than Mississippi State's Kylin Hill ($6,600). Harris has 6.2 yards per carry, and he's notched six touchdowns on the ground and five through the air. Speaking of Alabama's air attack, I'm happy to pay for DeVonta Smith ($6,500). He leads the Tide with 934 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Prediction: Alabama goes for some style points, or at least takes out its frustrations from losing on the poor, poor Bulldogs. Alabama 59, Mississippi State 13

Florida   (-7) at Missouri O/U 51.0, 12:00 PM ET

Florida stats: 65.7 plays per game, 404.1 yards per game (64), 18.8 points allowed per game (15), 330.9 yards allowed per game (21)

Missouri stats: 72.0 plays per game (29), 390.6 yards per game (73), 21.5 points allowed per game (28), 312.0 yards allowed per game (14)

Missouri's offense has been struggling, but Kelly Bryant ($6,400) is expected back under center. This is not necessarily a great matchup for him to return in, though. Then again, I was admittedly a little surprised to see that Missouri's defensive numbers are this good. I don't expect Kyle Trask ($6,600) to throw for 363 yards and three touchdowns again like he did against Vanderbilt.

This is a classic "You probably want to avoid this one" SEC matchup. If I had to recommend somebody, I suppose I would go with Florida's top running back Lamical Perine ($5,900). Mizzou has given up 140.1 yards per game on the ground, so he may have some luck.

Prediction: Bryant struggles in his return. The Gators win with defense but nobody really pops offensively. Florida 24, Missouri 13

Kansas   (+17.5) at Oklahoma State   O/U 65.5 12:00 PM ET

Kansas stats: 62.2 plays per game (127), 390.0 yards per game (75), 35.4 points allowed per game (112), 486.8 yards allowed per game (121)

Oklahoma State stats: 74.2 plays per game (21), 490.0 yards per game (11), 31.2 points allowed per game (83), 453.2 yards allowed per game (102)

Kansas is having a good season by its standards, which is to say it's having merely a bad season. That's especially true on defense. I feel like the reason Kansas has run so few plays is twofold. One, its defense is bad and so is its offense, so the Jayhawks. However, it's also a bit of that "giant killer" strategy that says the fewer plays in a game and the less action there is, the better chance the underdog has of getting an upset.

That being said, I can't see the Jayhawks really stopping the Cowboys. The star of Oklahoma State's offense is Chuba Hubbard ($8,800). He'll cost you a ton of cash, and you will have to build your lineup around that. He's $400 more expensive than any other running back. In this matchup, if you don't mind going "stars and scrubs" he's worth it. The other thing going on with the Cowboys' offense is that star receiver Tylan Wallace ($3,000) is out with an injury. Who will step into his formidable shoes? Well last week Dillon Stoner ($5,000) had 93 yards and two touchdowns. He may be the next man up.

Prediction: Hubbard has rushed for over 200 yards four times this season. This will be the fifth time it happens. Oklahoma State 45, Kansas 23

TCU   (-3) at Texas Tech   56.5, 12:00 PM ET

TCU stats: 77.1 plays per game (6), 419.8 yards per game (50), 28.9 points allowed per game (68), 336.1 yards allowed per game (28)

Texas Tech stats: 80.1 plays per game (10), 451.1 yards per game (25), 30.2 points allowed per game (80), 493.8 yards allowed per game (125)

Expect these two Lone Star State teams to be racking up the plays. I wonder what Texas Tech is going to be able to do against TCU's defense, which has been pretty stout for a Big 12 team. The Frogs have had a couple bad defensive games on the road, though, so I'm not writing off the Red Raiders. Texas Tech will get theirs, mostly because I expect TCU to be scoring left and right against one of the worst defenses in the FBS. There are only 130 teams, after all, so ranking 125th in anything is not exactly great.

I would like T.J. Vasher ($6,100) for Tech, but he was suspended last week, and as of this writing that suspension hasn't been lifted. Maybe just go with Jett Duffey ($6,700) at quarterback. I imagine he's going to get a ton of chances to throw the ball, probably for a team chasing the game. The Red Raiders have given up over 308 yards per contest passing, so naturally I want a piece of that TCU air game. Texas Christian, a name we rarely ever say in its entirety, spreads the ball around, but Jalen Reagor ($5,700) leads the team in catches and receiving yards, so I'd go for him.

Prediction: This feels like a game where both teams score at least 30. Texas Tech has a chance to win at home, but I think I will go with the Horned Frogs. I just can't trust a defense as bad as Tech's. TCU 42, Texas Tech 35

Indiana   (+14) at Penn State  O/U 55.0, 12:00 PM ET

Indiana stats: 71.9 plays per game (49), 433.5 yards per game (38), 22.5 points allowed per game (32), 334.9 yards allowed per game (26)

Penn State stats: 668.78 plays per game (87), 405.0 yards per game (63), 12.6 points allowed per game (6), 319.9 yards allowed per game (15)

Speaking of teams coming off a bit of a reality check, did the Penn State defense get exposed a bit last week by Minnesota? I think that's true, at least in the passing game. Granted, Indiana isn't Minnesota in terms of talent, but its offense has looked good recently. They've scored at least 34 points in all their wins, and only Ohio State has really shut them down.

If Noah Cain ($5,000) is out again in this one, I think there is some upside with Penn State running back Journey Brown ($5,000). That's a good price for a player who has averaged 6.5 yards per carry and just had 124 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries against Minnesota. I also feel like the Nittany Lions, simply put, don't have a good pass defense. They've given up 225.8 yards per game through the air. That makes me intrigued by Indiana's Whop Philyor ($4,900). He's the primary weapon in the Hoosiers' passing game, as he has 59 catches for 813 yards through nine games.

Prediction: Penn State will bounce back with a win at home, but the Hoosiers will get theirs and make this a high-scoring affair. Penn State 34, Indiana 28

Michigan State  (+14) at Michigan  O/U 44.0, 12:00 PM ET

Michigan State stats: 70.78 plays per game (56), 367.2 yards per game (89), 23.6 points allowed per game (37), 323.9 yards allowed per game (15)

Michigan stats: 69.78 plays per game (65), 390.3 yards per game (74), 17.1 points allowed per game (9), 267.6 yards allowed per game (7)

The Spartans got off to a hot start to the season defensivlye, as their numbers show. However, they've slipped recently. They've allowed at least 28 points in each of their last five games. Illinois just dropped 37 on them. Both the Spartans the Wolverines have played Penn State recently. Both teams allowed 28 points. The Wolverines scored 21 points, though, while the Spartans scored seven. I think that speaks to the different in offensive skills for these two squads pretty well.

I'm not super enthused about anybody in this game, and certainly nobody on Michigan State. However, if you want to save money on quarterback, maybe you went with Chuba Hubbard at running back for example, I think Shea Patterson ($6,200) has the potential to be a good value, if he can avoid fumbling, at least. The Spartans are worse against the pass than the rush, but none of Michigan's receivers have had standout years. Patterson will be involved in any pass offense, and he's also rushed for five scores.

Prediction: Michigan is home against a rival after a bye. It will be up for this game, and Michigan State's slide will continue. Sparty has lost four in a row. Let's make it five. Michigan 31, Michigan State 14

Georgia   (-3) at Auburn  O/U 40.5, 3:30 PM ET

Georgia stats: 67.4 plays per game (98), 435.8 yards per game (36), 9.2 points allowed per game (2), 257.8 yards allowed per game (4)

Auburn stats: 73.11 plays per game (35), 425.6 yards per game (45), 17.4 points allowed per game (11), 334.1 yards allowed per game (25)

This is one of those games I have to include, because it involves two big-name teams that are highly ranked, but it doesn't really get me excited from a DFS perspective. These are two great defenses that have pretty bland offense. Does anybody really want to put Jake Fromm ($6,700) or Bo Nix ($6,500) in a matchup like this? I would suggest you just steer clear of this one.

If you have to go with somebody from this game, though, I guess the guy I like best is Georgia receiver Lawrence Cager ($5,500). Auburn has allowed 221.4 passing yards per game and Cager is the top receiver for the Bulldogs. 

Prediction: Georgia's defense makes Nix, a true freshman mind you, miserable, and that's enough to get the Dawgs the win. Georgia 20, Auburn 13

Wake Forest   (+32) at Clemson  O/U 59.5, 3:30 PM ET

Wake Forest stats: 82.56 plays per game (2), 472.4 yards per game (17), 28.2 points allowed per game (66), 435.9 yards allowed per game (94)

Clemson stats: 72.5 plays per game (36), 528.4 yards per game (4), 11.2 points allowed per game (3), 251.0 yards allowed per game (3)

All year, Wake Forest has been a boon for DFS players. The Deacs run a ton of plays and have been in a bunch of shootouts. Then, last week they put up a clunker against Virginia Tech. That took the wind out of my sails. Oh, also Clemson has an elite defense and a really good offense so this is a real tough matchup for them. Two weeks ago I would have predicted this to be a somewhat high-scoring game for both teams, albeit with a lot more points for the Tigers. Now, though, I'm skeptical about the Demon Deacons.

Yes, that means I think you should avoid the usually reliable likes of Jamie Newman ($7,100), especially with Sage Surratt ($7,400) now out for the season. After a slow start to the season, Trevor Lawrence ($7,800) has picked it up. He's thrown for three touchdowns in each of his last five games, and in his last three he also has zero interceptions. Also, the signal caller with the flowing hair has seven rushing scores. In terms of receiver, I think I will save the few bucks on going with Justyn Ross ($5,900) over Tee Higgins ($6,100), though I like both. Higgins has the most yards on the Tigers, but Ross leads in receptions (40) and receiving touchdowns (six).

Prediction: Wake Forest won't get blanked or anything, but Clemson is going to rack up a lot of points against its iffy defense. Clemson 56, Wake Forest 20

Texas   (+6.5) at Iowa State  O/U 66.5, 3:30 PM ET

Texas stats: 76.0 plays per game (12), 477.6 yards per game (14), 30.7 points allowed per game (81), 477.6 yards allowed per game (100)

Iowa State stats: 69.67  plays per game (84), 482.0 yards per game (12), 24.9 points allowed per game (45), 372.2 yards allowed per game (43)

Both of these teams can get it done on offense. You can just look at the yard numbers on that. However, the Longhorns also have a lousy defense. Let's not forget them giving up 48 points to the Kansas Jayhawks. They gave up 31 to West Virginia! I don't think Iowa State is so good defensively it can shut down Texas, but I also expect Iowa State to crush it offensively.

Brock Purdy ($8,200) is never a bad option if you want to spend the money, but my Iowa State recommendation is Breece Hall ($6,800), whom I seem to recommend every week. I do that with good reason, though. In his four games since taking over as the lead back he's only been held under 100 rushing yards once. That time he had "only" 76 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, plus six catches for 42 yards. Speaking of guys shouldering a load, Texas receiver Devin Duvernay ($6,800) has at least eight receptions in each of his last four games. That's lifted him to  78 catches for 910 yards and seven touchdowns.

Prediction: Iowa State lost a shootout to Oklahoma. This week, they'll win one. Iowa State 49, Texas 42

Memphis (-10) at Houston  O/U 68.5, 3:30 PM ET

Memphis stats: 66.0 plays per game (100), 463.0 yards per game (22), 26.0 points allowed per game (49), 411.9 yards allowed per game (71)

Houston stats: 67.44 plays per game (76), 414.6 yards per game (54), 34.5 points allowed per game (105), 478.4 yards allowed per game (115)

Last we saw Memphis, it was wrecking SMU's perfect record. Now Mike Norvell's crew is heading down to Houston to take on a defense that has been getting torched. Neither defense has been exactly good, though. The Tigers even allowed 33 points to Louisiana-Monroe. They also scored 52 points in that game. Memphis has been winning by the strength of its offense, as it gets it done on the ground and through the air. So does Houston. In fact, the Cougars have actually averaged 210.4 yards per game rushing, a change of pace for a Dana Holgerson team.

I'm going to recommend one player from each team, though I will of course shout out the beasts of Memphis' offense, Brady White ($7,700) and Kenny Gainwell ($8,400). The Tigers I will single out, though, is top receiver Damonte Coxie ($5,900). It feels a little surprising to get the No.1 option in Memphis' passing game for that cheap a price. 

When D'Eriq King ($4,500) decided to redshirt, it though the Houston offense, including the run game, into chaos. From that chaos, Mulbah Car ($5,600) has emerged. He's had 44 carries over his last two games, and he's notched over 130 yards in both those contests.

Prediction: Houston relies on the running game to try and get the win. It will get the Cougars some points and yards, but Memphis is going to win this battle of the big cats. The Tigers are just too talented on offense, and they have a New Year's Six Bowl in their line of sight. Memphis 51, Houston 28

Stanford (+10.5) at Washington State O/U 63.5 4:30 PM ET

Stanford stats: 66.22 plays per game (89), 351.3 yards per game (102), 26.7 points allowed per game (54), 407.8 yards allowed per game (67)

Washington State stats: 69.33 plays per game (51), 500.5 yards per game (9), 31.8 points allowed per game (84), 459.1 yards allowed per game (105)

Washington State's defense has reverted to type with Alex Grinch two years removed from the program, with the Cougars ranking 88th in defensive S&P+. Stanford's overall numbers look bad, but remember that K.J. Costello ($6,100) missed a chunk of the season. In fact, there was one game where the Cardinal had to start their third-string quarterback.

That being said, I'm looking to the Stanford running game for this one. Washington State has given up a whopping 193.7 yards per game on the ground. The Cardinal has basically only one running back they use. Cameron Scarlett ($5,800) has gotten 172 carries this year. No other Stanford player has more than 30. Scarlett is going to get fed the ball, and that should pay off in this matchup. Then, of course, I have to get a piece of that Wazzu pass attack. I think I'll go with Brandon Arconado ($6,700). He leads the Cougars with 721 yards receiving, and he also has five touchdowns.

Prediction: Having Costello under center will make Stanford's offense look a lot better, especially against a porous defense. I also think the Cardinal cover the spread, but still take the loss. Washington State 38, Stanford 31