DFS Main Slate Primer: Week 5

We're in the flow of the season now! No need for a lot of preamble. Here's some info and recommendations to try and help you on the college football DFS front this week. The numbers in parentheses after the stats are FBS rankings, and, if you aren't aware, DK is DraftKings, and FD is FanDuel.

Texas A&M (-23.5) at Arkansas, O/U 57.5,12:00 PM ET

Texas A&M stats: 72.0 plays per game (69), 396.0 yards per game (74), 19.7 points allowed per game (28), 303.0 yards allowed per game (19)

Arkansas stats: 74.3 plays per game (47), 456.0 yards per game (30), 32.0 points allowed per game (85), 472.0 yards allowed per game (100)

Chad Morris has gotten the offense going for the Razorbacks, clearly, but this is a tough matchup. Texas A&M's defensive numbers are impressive in a vacuum, but that includes games against Clemson and Auburn. That's two top 10 teams. This will be Arkansas' biggest challenge yet, and so I'm skeptical of its offense. Looking at Arkansas' yards allowed per game, though, I'm encouraged for Texas A&M's offense.

I'm not interested in A&M's running game, Isaiah Spiller's numbers are the product of beating up on Lamar, but I like the receiving duo of Jhamon Ausbon ($6,300 DK) and Quartney Davis ($6,000 DK). Ausbon has 25 catches for 364 yards, and Davis has 16 catches for 226 yards even though he missed the Lamar game.

Prediction: Texas A&M's offense isn't actually as good as you might think, but it will still get enough in the passing game to get the victory comfortably. Texas A&M 38, Arkansas 13

Texas Tech (+25.5) at Oklahoma, O/U 72.0, 12:00 PM ET

Texas Tech stats: 78.5 plays per game (26), 414.0 yards per game (59), 15.5 points allowed per game (17), 315.0 yards allowed per game (24)

Oklahoma stats: 63.0 plays per game (116), 648.5 yards per game (1), 225 points allowed per game (38), 359.5 yards allowed per game (44)

It's a surprise to see Texas Tech's defensive numbers looking so good. Have things turned around now that Kliff Kingsbury is off in the NFL and Matt Wells has taken over? Not so fast. The Red Raiders have only played two games against FBS teams, and one of them was lowly UTEP. I'm also surprised to see a Lincoln Riley offense ranked so low in plays per game, but taking a look at those yards per game ameliorates any iota of concern.

Yes, you have to shell out to get Jalen Hurts ($9,200 DK), but I don't care. He might be the third-straight Heisman winner for the Sooners, and I don't buy into Texas Tech's defense numbers. CeeDee Lamb ($7,000 DK) is the best receiver for the Sooners, but Charleston Rambo ($5,600 DK), actually has better numbers on the year so far. Rambo has notched 251 yards and four touchdowns, and he'll save you a few bucks compared to Lamb.

Prediction: Boomer Sooner. Oklahoma 56, Texas Tech 20

Northwestern (+24) at Wisconsin, O/U 46.0, 12:00 PM ET

Northwestern stats: 73.7 plays per game (53), 305.7 yards per game (114), 20.7 points per game (32), 345.0 yards allowed per game (37)

Wisconsin stats: 76.3 plays per game (35), 506.3 yards per game (16), 4.7 points allowed per game (1), 177.0 yards allowed per game (1)

Well the math here is obvious. The Wildcats have a bad offense, and the Badgers have the NCAA's best defense. They've allowed 14 points all season, all of them to Michigan. Wisconsin's offense will get a tougher test than its defense will, so this might not be a high-scoring game. That tends to not be great for fantasy.

I'm not sold on Wisconsin's passing game, or at least no specific weapon sticks out to me, but I have no qualms about Jonathan Taylor ($9,000 DK). I'll happily pay the hefty price for a guy who has rushed for 440 yards and seven touchdowns through three games, especially given that he has two seasons of elite performance on his resume.

Prediction: It's more likely that Wisconsin pitches its third shutout than Northwestern scores 20 points. Wisconsin 30, Northwestern 3

Ole Miss (+35.5) at Alabama, O/U 61.5, 3:30 PM ET

Ole Miss stats: 74.0 points per game (50), 393.7 yards per game (72), 20.0 points per game (31), 386.0 yards allowed per game (55)

Alabama stats: 67.8 plays per game (95), 555.0 yards per game (4), 10.8 points per game (8), 287.8 yards allowed per game (16)

Much like Oklahoma, Alabama hasn't needed a lot of plays to put up huge yards and points. That's a matter of hitting a lot of big plays that chew up yards and lead to touchdowns. What separates the Tide from the Sooners, though, is that Bama's defense has also been elite. The Ole Miss defense, being coordinated for the first time by Mike McIntyre, is in for a rude awakening, but it did manage to keep Memphis in check in the opener, which was impressive.

I can't trust any Mississippi players against Alabama's defense on the road. I think Tua Tagovailoa ($8,800 DK, $10,600 FD) is a safe bet, though. He's not doing much damage with his legs, but he's thrown 17 touchdowns against zero interceptions. There's also potential to get a bit of a steal in Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith ($5,900 DK, $8,000 FD). He has 20 catches for 263 yards and three touchdowns.

Prediction: The Tide continues to roll, but I don't see them beating this massive spread against Ole Miss, even with Matt Corral injured. Alabama 45, Ole Miss 17

USC (+9.5) at Washington, O/U 59.5 3:30 PM ET

USC stats: 69.2 plays per game (89), 443.0 yards per game (36), 24.0 points allowed per game (43), 421.0 yards allowed per game (74)

Washington stats: 68.0 plays per game (94), 425.7 yards per game (45), 19.7 points allowed per game (27), 351.3 yards allowed per game (39)

The Trojans' offense hasn't soared up the rankings with Graham Harrell at offensive coordinator, but the fact they've had to use three different quarterbacks may have played a part in that. The Huskies' defense ranks better than the Trojans' offense, they don't have question marks, and also they are at home. As such, I think this could be a down day for USC's offense, especially if Matt Fink has to start. The Trojans have only played one road game, and they lost 30-27 in overtime. If you've been relying on guys like Tyler Vaughns ($6,300 DK, $8,600 FD)and Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,300 DK, $9,000 FD), you may want to steer clear this week.

I like Washington running back Salvon Ahmed ($6,700 DK, $8,500 FD), provided that he's healthy. If he's not, then I like his backup Richard Newton ($5,200 DK, $8,200 FD). Newton's numbers are actually basically the same as Ahmed's, except he has five touchdowns to Ahmed's two.

Prediction: If Fink starts, the good vibes from the Utah win dissipate, as we are reminded why he was a third-string quarterback when the season began. Prediction: Washington 24, USC 14

Iowa State (-2.5) at Baylor, O/U 55.0 3:30 PM ET

Iowa State stats: 61.0 plays per game (124), 566.0 yards per game (3), 19.0 points allowed per game (25), 369.0 yards allowed per game (49)

Baylor stats: 63.5 plays per game (114), 486.5 yards per game (23), 13.5 points allowed per game (14), 254.0 yards allowed per game (80)

Neither of these teams has run a lot of plays, but they are both in the top 25 in yards per game. That's a lot of bang for your buck. The Cyclones have only played two games against FBS teams, though, and these offensive numbers are basically entirely based on last week when they dropped 72 on Louisiana-Monroe. I'm also skeptical of Baylor's defensive numbers. The best team the Bears have played this year is Rice.

I'm fading Baylor's defense, so I am willing to believe more in Iowa State's offense. Brock Purdy ($7,500 DK, $9,800 FD) accounted for six touchdowns against ULM, including three on the ground. He showed potential as a freshman last year, so I feel like he's rounding into form. I also think Tarique Milton ($5,000 DK, $9,300 FD) is a potential steal, at least on DraftKings. He's notched 13 catches for 304 yards and two touchdowns. That's not about beating up on ULM, either. Milton actually had eight catches for 144 yards and a score.

Prediction: Baylor's defense finds out that Iowa State is just a little tougher than UTSA or Rice, and Iowa State earns a hard-fought win in a game that likely won't excite fantasy players too much. Iowa State 24, Baylor 20

Clemson (-26.5) at North Carolina, O/U 61.0, 3:30 PM ET

Clemson stats: 71.2 plays per game (75), 524.8 yards per game (8), 10.0 points allowed per game (5), 246.5 yards allowed per game (7)

North Carolina stats: 75.5 plays per game (41), 418.5 yards per game (58), 25.8 points allowed per game (55), 394.8 yards allowed per game (60)

Clemson's top-10 defense is probably going to shut down North Carolina. I am steering clear of Tar Heels given that. I'm also really puzzled about what's going on with Trevor Lawrence? He's thrown five picks compared to only seven touchdowns. Sure, he's also run for three scores, but this is not the performance we were expected. Not that it's stopped Clemson's offense from excelling, of course.

For that, they can primarily thank Travis Etienne ($7,200 DK, $9,500 FD). He rushed for 1,658 yards last year and 24 touchdowns last year and has 395 yards and four touchdowns this season. Also, Lyn-J Dixon ($5,800 DK, $8,000 FD) has tallied 220 yards and three touchdowns as Etienne's backup. If this game becomes a blowout, and there's a decent chance of that, Dixon could provide bang for your buck.

Prediction: Clemson has another comfortable win, but not enough to cover the spread, powered by its defense and running game. Clemson 35, North Carolina 14

Virginia (+11) at Notre Dame, O/U 49.5 3:30 PM ET

Virginia stats: 66.3 plays per game (101), 323.0 yards per game (108), 18.3 points allowed per game (22), 287.3 yards allowed per game (15)

Notre Dame stats: 64.7 plays per game (104), 445.0 yards per game (34), 18.0 points allowed per game (21), 365.3 yards allowed per game (46)

So here we have two pro-style offenses that don't run a lot of plays backed up by two top-notch defenses. Bear in mind that the Fighting Irish just played Georgia, and though they lost, they held the Bulldogs to 23 points. I'm expecting a low-scoring game, especially by college football standards. The ball won't be flying all over the field in this one.

While this battle of ranked teams should be fun to watch, it's not likely to bear much fantasy fruit. My one recommendation is Virginia receiver Joe Reed ($6,400 DK, $8,200 FD). He had seven touchdowns on only 25 receptions last year, and he has a touchdown in each of his last three games.

Notre Dame bounces back from a hard-fought loss to get a win over Virginia. Notre Dame 21, Virginia 17

Wake Forest (-7) at Boston College, O/U 68.5, 3:30 PM ET

Wake Forest stats: 81.7 plays per game (10), 509.3 yards per game (14), 24.7 points allowed per game (46), 416.7 yards per game (73)

Boston College stats: 84.0 plays per game (4), 438.7 yards per game (38), 30.7 points allowed per game (77), 463.0 yards allowed per game (94)

If you were shown Saturday's schedule and asked to pick out a game with two teams ranked in the top 10 in plays per contest, you probably wouldn't have picked this one. Wake Forest's numbers have been particularly impressive. . Also, then look at Boston College's defensive numbers, and remember they let Kansas drop 48 on them. I'm extremely skeptical about the Eagles' defense, and that makes Wake's offense even more exciting.

The primary weapon for the Deacons, and I think a guy that's underrated nationally, is receiver Sage Surratt ($7,500 DK, $9,800 FD). Surratt has already racked up 30 catches for 484 yards and five touchdowns. Boston College has been running a lot of plays, and most of the time the thing it does is give the ball to AJ Dillon ($8,300 DK, $9,700 FD). Through four games, Dillon already had 104 touches. Do the math, and you know that's 26 touches per game. He's turned seven of those touches into touchdowns, and there are fewer bets safer than Dillon getting fed the ball.

Prediction: Wake Forest stays undefeated on the strength of its passing game, with Surratt coming up big. Wake Forest 34, Boston College 21

Mississippi State (+11) at Auburn, O/U 46.5, 7:00 PM ET

Mississippi State stats: 68.5 plays per game (91), 414.0 yards per game (60), 21.8 points allowed per game (36), 357.2 yards allowed per game (42)

Auburn stats: 75.5 plays per game (42), 424.0 yards per game (48), 15.8 points allowed per game (19), 316.8 yards allowed per game (26)

Bear in mind when looking at Auburn's numbers, especially on defense, that the Tigers have already played Oregon and Texas A&M. Auburn has tested itself, and come out on the other end. They've done this, bear in mind, with true freshman Bo Nix under center. He should only get better as the season goes along. Of course, he has nothing to do with the defense, but needless to say I'm not interested in any Bulldogs this week. Not even Kylin Hill, who is normally a fine option at running back.

The thing about winning with defense and a true freshman quarterback you don't want to stress too much, though, is that there aren't a lot of enticing fantasy options. Only one Tiger has double-digit receptions, and nobody has more than 150 yards receiving. JaTarvious Whitlow ($6,500 DK, $8,800 FD), Auburn's running back, is the one offensive weapon of note. He's averaging about 100 yards per game on five yards per carry.

Prediction: It's not a pretty win for Auburn, but they all count equally, even if DFS players are largely unenthused. Auburn 27, Mississippi State 13

Kansas State (+5) at Oklahoma State, O/U 60.0, 7:00 PM ET

Kansas State stats: 66.5 plays per game (99), 395.0 yards per game (69), 12.0 points allowed per game (12), 246.0 yards allowed per game (6)

Oklahoma State stats: 78.7 plays per game (25), 518.3 yards per game (11), 31.0 points allowed per game (81), 447.3 yards allowed per game (89)

On the one hand, we have Mike Gundy's ever-reliable high-octane offense against Kansas State's defense, which has been tenacious thus far. On the other hand, we have the Wildcats' slow-paced, middling offense against the Cowboys' mediocre defense. However, Kansas State's numbers are bolstered by a shutout of Bowling Green. Its only other game against an FBS team was against Mississippi State, and they gave up 24 points there.

I like Skylar Thompson ($6,000 DK, $7,500 FD), Kansas State's starting quarterback. His numbers aren't gaudy, but he's thrown four touchdowns against zero interceptions while also rushing for two scores. He's interesting at this price against Oklahoma State's defense. The Cowboys have two offensive studs powering their team's numbers. Tylan Wallace is a great wide receiver, but running back Chuba Hubbard ($8,400 DK, $10,500 FD) is the guy that has me most excited. We're talking 642 yards and nine touchdowns through four games. If the Wildcats' defense numbers prove to be a product of the BGSU game, Hubbard should be able to tear them up.

Prediction: That's what I think happens. Kansas State's defense is exposed by Hubbard and company, and the Cowboys get the win in a shootout. Oklahoma State 45, Kansas State 35

Ohio State (-17.5) at Nebraska, O/U 67.0 7:30 PM ET

Ohio State stats: 74.2 plays per game (48), 524.5 yards per game (9), 9.0 points allowed per game (4), 222.5 yards allowed per game (4)

Nebraska stats: 77.8 plays per game (28), 490.0 yards per game (22), 25.2 points allowed per game (48), 356.8 yards allowed per game (41)

Ohio State has put up stunning numbers, having scored at least 42 points in every game. They have a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense in the country. I think they have a lot more potential on offense too, if they ever get tested. When you are beating Miami (OH) 76-5, at a certain point you're just trying to let the game end. Nebraska does seem to have a good offense, and we know what Scott Frost can do, but I don't think it's ready to take on a defense like the Buckeyes. I don't know how many teams are.

J.K. Dobbins ($7,500 DK, $9,900 FD) hasn't had to sweat much, as he's gotten plenty of time to rest in blowouts. When he has the ball, though, look out. He's averaged 7.0 yards per carry and totaled six touchdowns. Nobody in the receiving corps has really stood out, probably because of all the time spent with starters on the bench. It's a bit like pulling a name out of a hat, and if you wanted to do that then you probably wouldn't be reading 3,000 words a week looking for recommendations. Based on price and production, I'm in on Chris Olave ($6,000 DK, $8,500 FD). He leads the team with four receiving touchdowns, but also he's averaged 17.5 yards per reception. I think he has the kind of big-play potential that can yield big fantasy numbers even in limited touches.

Prediction: Ohio State actually needs its starters playing in the second half, but they still win comfortably. Ohio State 42, Nebraska 21