DraftKings College Football DFS Picks: Conference Championships

CFB DFS: DraftKings College Football DFS Conference Championship Picks and Strategy

There's a bittersweet element to conference championship week. On the one hand, we have a great slate of games with high stakes*.  On the other hand, it's a shorter slate with just five games, and it signals that we're nearing the end of these big main slate opportunities. 

Note that this article is being written by an extremely nervous Georgia fan, so you can take whatever is said about the UGA-Bama game with a grain of salt.

I won't bore you anymore with my various Alabama-driven neuroses. At least in the intro. Let's get to the action.

Slate Overview

Tight Spreads & High Totals

Finding a game with a high over/under where both teams are expected to be competitive is always a primary goal for building our lineups. Games like that create a great scoring environment on both sides, with little worry about the star players being pulled, unlike when a game gets lopsided. 

Here are this week's games to target:

Virginia (-4.0) vs Duke (O/U 57.5)

A five-game slate with conference championships on the line means we dont' get much in the way of runaway totals. The ACC Championship is the matchup to target based on what Vegas is telling us, though. It's the only game with a total in the 50s, and Duke and Virginia comprise two of the top three implied team totals on the board this week.

Both sides should eat. Duke's offense is electric, as you've likely learned over the second half of the season when they became mainstays on these main slates. Duke's offense ranks 23rd in SP+. What's interesting is Duke's Big Three of Darian Mensah, Nate Sheppard and Cooper Barkate have routinely been among the priciest players at their positions when they've been on the slate. Mensah has been as high as $9,500, Sheppard at $8,200, and Barkate at $7,300. Those were somewhat inflated against UConn, but not far off from other matchups. 

This week, the Big Three is much more attainable with Mensah at $7K, Sheppard at $6,700, and Barkate at $6,100. Before you sprint to get these guys in your lineup, remember that UVA ranks 23rd in defensive SP+ so it won't exactly be a cakewalk for the Duke offense. Still, the deflated prices and strong implied total keep them all in play.

Virginia's offense is a little more pedestrian at 49th, but it gets the nice boost of facing a dreadful Duke defense that gives up the most rushing and passing yards on the slate. Now, DK has it priced with that in mind. J'Mari Taylor is the highest-priced RB on the board ($8,700) by almost a full thousand dollars. I wonder if most drafters will fade him for that reason when Cameron Dickey gets a good matchup against BYU with a spread that implies lots of running from Texas Tech. But, again, with a smaller slate, that might not end up being the case. UVA's receivers are underpriced, as per usual. Trell Harris ($5,000) is a far more productive player than the salary implies. Cam Ross ($3,900) is questionable, which could put more targets on Jahmal Edrine's ($3,800) plate. 

Quarterback

Both quarterbacks from the ACC Championship Game are primo plays this week with Darian Mensah ($7,000) and Chandler Morris ($7,400) projecting extremely well. We're not rich with other options on this slate but there are some pivots you can go after.

Julian Sayin, Ohio State ($6,800) vs Indiana

I know Indiana's great on defense, but having to scroll down to find the possible Heisman Trophy winner in Sayin is crazy. Sure, Sayin's per-game production might not scream out at you; he has just one game with over 30 fantasy points and just four games with at least 30 pass attempts. That's because Ohio State hasn't needed him to do a lot in order to blow teams out. 

This isn't a JJ McCarthy analog, though. He can actually cook when the coaching staff asks him to. The rate stats on Sayin are ridiculous. 79% completion rate at 9.4 YPA. Come on. I respect Indiana as much as the next guy, but the idea of Sayin not getting what you need at $6,800 feels off to me.

Ty Simpson, Alabama ($8,100) vs Georgia

Nothing about Georgia's defense should scare you off of Simpson. Particularly when it comes to the pass rush. In Alabama's two losses, they faced defenses that can really get after the QB. Oklahoma ranked second in sack rate and FSU, for all its flaws, ranked 15th. 

Georgia? 122nd. It's gotten a little better lately, but it's still not a fearsome component to the defense. All of this to say Simpson will have time to throw. And when he has time to throw, he picks teams apart. He has thrown at least 35 attempts in each of his last four SEC games. Alabama can't run the ball worth a darn, and Georgia knows that, but it won't matter if it can't heat up Simpson. Look for a high-volume passing day from Simpson here and the numbers should follow. 

Broc Lowry, Western Michigan ($6,500) vs Miami (OH)

1,572 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns might make you wonder why we're looking at Lowry. Well, 875 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns is the answer. There's not much else to say here. We need a big day on the ground from Lowry, but luckily, that isn't a stretch. He averages 17 rushes per game in conference play with 5.4 YPC. Rushing touchdowns plus the coveted 100-yard rushing bonus are well within the range of possibilities here. 

Running Back

J'Mari Taylor, Virginia ($8,700) vs Duke

We're going to need a huge game out of Taylor for this to work. Luckily, things are pointing in that direction. Duke coughs up 141 rushing yards per game, though it's been marginally better (136) against conference foes. Taylor cooked them a few short weeks ago, however, taking 18 carries for 133 yards and two scores. That, plus a 25-yard catch, netted Taylor 28.3 fantasy points. 

At $8,700, we'll need something similar. It should be in play here in a must-win setup with a playoff spot on the line. Taylor commands a 46% rushing share for the Hoos and should be busy this week.

For the record, I completely understand the Cameron Dickey appeal this week as well at $7,800. I just feel like J'Koby Williams ($5,900) eats away at his margins more than anyone on Virginia can eat at Taylor's. Plus, Dickey will likely be more chalky.

Nate Frazier, Georgia ($5,600) vs Alabama

Chauncey Bowens (undisclosed) is listed as available for Saturday's game. However, he did not dress for last week's game against Georgia Tech and it wouldn't shock me if he only plays sparingly this week. That sets up a nice workload for Frazier, who would be a worthwhile play at $5,600 even if Bowens was a full-go. 

Frazier has been excellent down the stretch with two 100-yard games in his last four outings and a spicy 7.4 YPC average that is admittedly fueled by his destruction of Miss State. Alabama has a fallible run defense, which feels weird to write but it's true. Georgia gashed them for 227 in the first meeting, and the Tide gave up gaudy rushing numbers to Vandy, Missouri and Tennessee before helping their averages by shutting down LSU and OU. 

I can see Georgia having a conservative game plan when it comes to passing given the key offensive line injury to center Drew Bobo. With that, Frazier should be in line for one of his heaviest workloads of the year against a defense that can be moved around a little bit.

I don't hate Daniel Hill ($4,700) as a play on the other side of this one with Jam Miller a longshot to play. Alabama doesn't run much but Hill is a hulking back who could be useful to them in short-yardage and goal-line situations. 

Also consider

Jalen Buckley, Western Michigan ($6,000)

Wide Receiver

Here's this week's target cheat sheet. I filtered it to receivers on this slate with at least a 15% team target share who also average at least 8.0 yards per target. I also narrowed the sample to the last four weeks to get a healthy sample while also giving weight to players who are clicking right now. Those are fairly arbitrary thresholds, but they still tend to paint a good picture of who is A.) Getting Volume and B.) Maximizing It. 

I had to lower those usual thresholds with the smaller slate. 

Trell Harris, Virginia ($5,000) vs Duke

We'll keep this brief as we mentioned Harris in an earlier section. Essentially, He's the top dog for the Virginia pass-catchers with a 27.2 percent target share over the last month, which he has converted into 19 catches with a 9.4 YPT average. If Cameron Ross is out or limited, that's more targets to go around for Harris, who routinely sees 9+ targets.

Going up against Duke's porous defense while being priced at a bargain $5K only makes Harris more appealing on this slate, whether it's as a one-off or as part of a game stack.

MACtion Heroes

Cole Weaver ($4,500) and Kam Perry ($4,800), Miami OH 

We'd have been remiss to not mention the MAC at all. Frankly I'm sorry it took me this long. 

This game has the lowest total on the board, unfortunately, but we can still squeeze some value from it if we shop for some mid-tier receivers. On the Miami side, Weaver and Perry comprise roughly 60 percent of the target share these days, and with good reason. Weaver is a chain-mover with 19 grabs in his last four games (32 targets) with 8.8 YPT. Perry is a little more boom-or-bust. He draws similar target volume but his catch rate the last month is sub-50%. He makes up for it with explosiveness. 19.4 yards per reception with three touchdowns on 13 grabs. With DK scoring, Weaver is the higher floor option, while Perry fits as a nice GPP option. 

Western's Tailique Williams popped on the table but it was a little misleading. His 19% target share amounts to seven targets in his last four games. Western is going to run the ball. That's how they operate. 

Carnell Tate, Ohio State ($7,100) vs Indiana

We may not get a massive game out of Ohio State, but like the case I made with Sayin, the talent far outweighs the tough matchup and the price point. Tate showed that he was helthy in his big game against Michigan last week with five grabs on seven targets for 82 yards and a score. That's enough for me to buy back in this week. Jeremiah Smith is of course a great play in a vacuum, but I prefer the extra $1,300 to play around with by rostering Tate

Bargain SEC Options

Isaiah Horton, Alabama ($3,800) and Noah Thomas, Georgia ($3,800)

Apparently, a three-touchdown game doesn't move the needle for the good folks at DK. In fact, Horton's price is down $100 from last week when he helped propel the Tide past the upset against Auburn.  Ryan Williams seems to be in the midst of a prolonged disappearing act from the Alabama offense, which opens the door for more Horton and Germie Bernard. Horton has been extremely efficient this past month, catching 12 of 16 targets for 146 and 3 while Bernard has been held to just 13 catches on 30 targets. I expect Bernard and the Alabama passing game to be more efficient Saturday, but Horton is a screaming bargain on this slate.

Thomas is a tad more subtle, though he's come on strong down the stretch. He is second behind Zachariah Branch in Bulldog targets over the last month, catching 11 of 16 opportunities for 178 and three touchdowns. 

Additionally, I'll always contend that Oscar Delp ($3,300) is a nice dart throw even with his waning usage of late. When Georgia needs something, it often looks to Delp. London Humphreys ($3,100) also has a pulse if you need something close to min-price. You can't expect heavy volume, but something like two catches for 30 yards and a touchdown is within the range of outcomes for him.