This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.
CFB DFS Picks: DraftKings College Football Week 1 DFS Picks and Plays
The casuals will look at the board this week and be underwhelmed by the offerings. There are only two ranked-on-ranked matchups this week and a lot of tune-up games for the big programs.
If you're reading this, you're not a casual. You're juiced up for Cincy-Pitt and OK State-Arkansas just like I am. We even have Iowa-Iowa State going on this slate. We aren't touching that with a 10-foot pole for DFS purposes, but that's always appointment viewing just for the punts alone.
It's a fun slate where almost every game has legitimate DFS appeal. Let's get right to it and break it down.
Slate Overview
With just one game in the books in most cases, save for Georgia Tech, we won't get too hung up on these opponent defensive stats. However, the implied totals and spreads are good guides for us to use. Cincinnati-Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State-Arkansas, Syracuse-Georgia Tech, and Utah-Baylor have the best blends of high totals and tight spreads. Those will be the games to build the core of your lineups around, and we'll round them out with plays from less-popular games.
Penn State, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Utah and Auburn have the highest implied totals on the board with IT's ranging from 42.25 to 32.75.
For game stacking the Georgia Tech vs Syracuse game, it might be prudent to work Haynes King ($8,100), Jamal Haynes ($6,900) and Malik Rutherford ($5,500) in on the Tech Side and run it back with Oronde Gadsden ($5,000 -- still a value). McCord strikes me as a bit too pricey at $8,400, but that could keep his roster percentage at a reasonable figure. Rutherford has been performing the best among the Tech pass-catchers but Eric Singleton was tremendous last season and it shouldn't be long before he re-establishes himself as the top guy.
For Cincinnati-Pitt, the Bearcats look vulnerable against the pass. This puts Eli Holstein ($6,500) in play. Pitt spread the ball around plenty last week with four players seeing six or more targets. Kenny Johnson ($4,400) performed the best with seven grabs for 105 yards and a score but Raphael Williams ($4,500) found paydirt twice on four catches and Censere Lee ($4,100) led the team in targets. They are all in play this week, as is Gavin Bartholomew ($4,000).
Cincinnati is a bit easier to figure out as Brendan Sorsby ($8,000) fixated on Xzavier Henderson ($6,500; 7/101/1) and Joe Royer ($3,800; 5/89). With suspect defenses on either side and a high total, this will be a popular game to target.
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CFB DFS Picks By Position
Quarterback
Eli Holstein ($6,500) Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
What a debut from Holstein. I mean, holy cow. (I lived in Wisconsin for a while. I can make a bovine pun if I so choose.)
Holstein ushered in a new era for the Pitt offense by dropping back 40 times and hitting 30 of those passes for 336 yards with three touchdowns and a pick. That's a clear signal that Pitt is going to commit to the passing game this year and that it trusts Holstein to operate it. The Pitt pass-catching options are all bargains as well, making stacking easy.
$6,500 for a quarterback who may push for 40 attempts again in the highest total game on the slate (63.0) is too good to pass up. He may be chalky so you'll want to diversify if you're making multiple lineups, but that's my only quibble.
Brendan Sorsby ($8,000) Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh
On the other side of this matchup we have Sorsby. While you have to pay up considerably more for him than Holstein, there's reason to believe Sorsby can deliver.
He completed 71 percent of his passes at a 12.4 YPA clip last week and punched in a pair of rushing touchdowns. While we can't expect that level of YPA efficiency this week, a game script like this may position him to increase his volume up from the 31 attempts in Week 1.
The rushing upside is intriguing. He had five rushes totaling five yards but again, two of them went for scores. At 228 pounds, Sorsby profiles as a goal-line threat and he did rack up 286 yards over 112 attempts last season.
Taylen Green ($7,500) Arkansas at Oklahoma State
Yes, it was against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but Green looked great in Week 1. He completed just under 70 percent of his passes at 10.0 YPA and accounted for four total touchdowns, including two on the ground.
Green's rushing ability is well-documented; he racked up over 1,000 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns over his last two seasons at Boise State. That made him a high-profile transfer and a nice get for an Arkansas program that needed a win in that area.
Green will have to do it all on Saturday if Arkansas is going to keep up with the 'Pokes, and I think he will. His passing will be the X-factor. Andrew Armstrong's questionable status is a concern, but that could also open up cheaper options to pair with Green. Our optimizer loves tight end Luke Hasz this week as a value play at $3,400 and I can certainly get with that in my Green lineups or lineups where I need a bargain bin option to make the build work.
Brock Vandagriff ($7,100) and LaNorris Sellers ($6,500), South Carolina at Kentucky
This game might be largely ignored by the field with an over/under of just 42.5, the third-lowest on the slate. Therefore, I've got an eye on it in tournaments since the field will be on the projected higher-scoring matchups.
Once upon a time, Vandagriff was neck-and-neck with Caleb Williams to be QB1 in the 2021 class. Things didn't work out for him at Georgia but now he's finally getting his shot in Lexington. Like a southern Will Levis.
I'm moderately sold on Vandagriff's talent and think he has underrated athleticism. I'm really sold on Kentucky's weapons out wide, though. Barion Brown ($6,500) and Dane Key ($5,300) are one of my favorite tandems in the game right now and they will cause issues in the South Carolina secondary all afternoon.
Sellers is a wild card. Drafters viewed him as a ~10th round pick in best ball this summer after making limited cameos behind Spencer Rattler last season. He was uneven against Old Dominion, completing just 43.5 percent of his passes with a 5.0 YPA. He salvaged his day with 22 carries for 68 yards and a score. If the passing numbers were that ugly against ODU it's hard to imagine them being much better this week on the road in a conference game. Still, Kentucky is going to have to work hard to slow Sellers on the ground. I'm not inclined to stack Sellers with any pass-catchers but using him and Raheim Sanders ($5,200 -- 24 carries last week) might be a way of cornering most of SC's offensive production.
Others to Consider: Haynes King ($8,100), Cameron Rising ($8,900), Billy Edwards ($6,500)
Running Back
Jamal Haynes ($6,900) Georgia Tech @ Syracuse
Haynes has one of the better RB projections on the board this week and yet he's still under $7K. Syracuse's run defense looks like it's going to be a work in progress after coughing up 262 yards on the ground against Ohio. It's not just the 262 figure, it's the 6.7 YPC clip, too.
Haynes does have some goal-line risk as Georgia Tech is comfortable with multiple options in goal-line situations (I'm still steaming over the Zach Pyron Week 0 Vulture). Haynes King is capable in that area as well. Still, Jamal Haynes has a 40% rushing share in the Tech offense and he's going to get plenty of cracks at a weak Orange defense.
Haynes is averaging 5.7 YPC on the year and peeled off 6.8 YPC against Florida State in the opener. He has combined for three rushing scores in two games and I expect him to add to that total Saturday.
DJ Giddens ($6,600) Kansas State at Tulane
Giddens was routinely going in the top 15 picks of Best Ball drafts. He's RB 10 in DraftKings pricing this week. I'm intrigued.
We know running the ball is Kansas State's DNA. They run it at around a 55% clip like clockwork. Giddens commands about a 40% share based on last year and Week 1. That's a great floor to start from. He looked to be in fine form last week with 13 carries for 124 yards, albeit against FCS competition.
Look for a more serious game plan this week for K-State on the road against Tulane, and that should set Giddens up for upwards of 20 carries. At least one touchdown plus the 100-yard rushing bonus is in play for Giddens here as I suspect K-State will hammer away at Tulane's defense with him.
Desmond Reid ($5,900) Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Reid became a chalk play last week after Rodney Hammond was ruled ineligible and he did not disappoint. He torched Kent State for 145 yards and a score on 14 carries and also caught three passes. The competition gets a little tougher this week, but Cincy showed some holes in its run defense last week by allowing 194 yards to Towson.
I'm pretty much sold on every piece of the Pitt offense at cost this weekend. It may not be optimal to toss Reid into a lineup where you're already using Holstein and some Pitt pass-catchers, but the Panthers' implied total suggests that there will be plenty of contributors from this offense.
Dijon Stanley ($4,800) Utah vs Baylor
It's hard to know what exactly to take away from Utah's thrashing of Southern Utah in the opener. It's also hard to ignore Stanley's stat line that featured three catches for 150 yards and two touchdowns on three targets. Utah deployed a deep RB rotation in that game with five backs getting four or more carries and no running backs with more than six.
The Deseret News profiled Stanley earlier this week and it made it tough not to be excited about him in this offense.
"Once he catches the ball, he's got tremendous speed and does a great job with it," Ludwig said.
Ludwig designed packages — "speed and space" plays — for him to execute during Thursday's season-opener, and they worked to perfection.
Utah has enough backfield depth that we're taking a risk rostering any of them on a given week. However, Stanley is clearly standing out. We may not see a ton of volume, but the explosive upside is worth the risk at $4,800.
Others to Consider: Evan Pryor, Cincinnati ($4,300); Kaytron Allen, Penn State ($5,300)
Wide Receiver
Here's a table using our CFB targets page isolating Week 1 stats that is filtered by having a minimum of 10 yards per target and sorted by number of targets. This gives us a decent idea of who's getting volume and is efficient with that volume.
Harrison Wallace ($5,800), Tai Felton ($5,400) and De'Zhaun Stribling ($4,800) all profile nicely through that lens. Let's unpack them and some other WR targets this week.
Harrison Wallace ($5,800) Penn State vs Bowling Green
CFF enthusiasts were bullish on Drew Allar this draft season but the market couldn't decide who his top target would be. Tyler Warren was a popular pick for those looking for a tight end in the mid-to-late rounds but the receivers were mostly untouched in the best ball market.
Wallace seems to be the correct answer, although we're just one game in and there's still time for others to ascend. After appearing in just six games last year, Wallace hit the ground running against West Virginia with five catches for 117 yards and two touchdowns. That's explosive per-target production even if the catch rate wasn't overly efficient.
Penn State should have little trouble moving the ball on a Bowling Green defense that allowed 9.5 YPA last week. There's understandable blowout concern with rostering Penn State players this week, but I'll take the stance that Wallace provides a solid return even if the Nittany Lions empty the bench late.
Tai Felton ($5,400) Maryland vs Michigan State
The Terps check in as 9.0-point favorites with an implied total just under 27. Going after the Spartan defense has been a recurring theme of this article for years and this year is no different. Now, Sparty's defense did look better last week and it was the offense that was the problem, but Maryland presents an entirely different challenge for them than FAU did.
Felton went for 7/178/2 last week against UConn on nine targets. This looks to be a narrowly channeled offense with Felton and Kaden Prather seeing strong target shares. And it's easy to see why:
Felton and Billy Edwards ($6,500) combine to make an inexpensive stack that should differentiate your lineup from the pack.
De'Zhaun Stribling ($4,800) Oklahoma State vs Arkansas
Stribling represents an inexpensive way to get at an OK State offense that's expected to push for 40 points. The spread keeps moving in OK State's direction (-10) after sitting at -7.5 earlier in the week.
Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens were the headliners of this receiving corps coming into the year, and while that's still the case, Stribling seems to be a solid option who projects for solid volume in a high-scoring offense. He saw eight targets last week and caught six of them for 83 yards.
Owens is also a solid play if you're pursuing the 'Pokes as he's just $5,400 and has the best big-play ability of the Cowboy receivers.
Xzavier Henderson ($6,500) Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh
There are so many value plays at receiver this week that I wouldn't blame you for shopping in the sub-$6K aisle and loading up elsewhere. However, Henderson has one of the better projected setups on this slate among the top-billed receivers. It's going to be a back-and-forth and high-scoring game with Vegas telling us to expect Cincy to eke out a 32-30 victory.
Henderson drew 11 targets -- good for a 35% target share -- in the opener and racked up seven grabs for 101 yards and a score. The one-time Florida Gator had bad touchdown luck with just three on 103 targets a year ago. The correction seems to already be occurring and I'll want some exposure to it this weekend.
Others to Consider
Oronde Gadsden, Syracuse ($5,000); Trebor Pena, Syracuse ($4,900); Isaac TeSlaa, Arkansas ($5,000); Barion Brown, Kentucky ($6,500); Kenny Johnson, Pitt ($4,400)