College Capper: Free College Football Picks this Week
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Chris' Picks
We're chipping away at that early deficit! A second-straight winning week happened for me last week, which feels like it could have been better. Seriously, Pitt, you can't score a point in the second half or protect a 10-point lead at home?
Unlike in previous weeks, where I've struggled to sometimes find a fourth game I like, let alone a fifth, this week I had a plethora of options that didn't make the cut. And I'm a little out of my east coast, ACC/SEC comfort zone this week. We'll see if that produces better results.
BYU (-19) vs. West Virginia (Friday)
West Virginia just isn't any good. Since they surged to a win over rival Pittsburgh, which, after last week, I'm less impressed with, they've lost by a combined 89-24 to Kansas and Utah. This is also a team that lost to Ohio earlier. Now they're travelling a long way and have a late 10:30 p.m. EDT kickoff on a short week? The Cougars, meanwhile, are rolling; they've won three of four by at least this number, and it's their first home game in three weeks. They're averaging 6.3 ypc while the Mountaineers have allowed at least 5.0 ypc in each of those last two blowouts. And BYU's defense has been elite against both the pass and run. If you're into teasers or alt-line parlays, consider moving this under two touchdowns and pairing it with San Diego State at even or up to +2.5, or USF -20.5.
Maryland (+6.5) vs. Washington
The Terps are off a bye, while Washington just lost to Ohio State and now has to travel across the country, which is enough for me to bite on the home dog. I'm a touch concerned about Maryland's prior competition, or lack thereof. But they've been very good defensively, and while they can't run the ball at all, freshman QB Malik Washington has protected the ball and made scoring plays. This will come down to Maryland's ability to slow RB Jonah Coleman. After going for 288 yards in his first two games, Coleman has just 129 yards in his last two. Maryland hasn't faced a back of his caliber, but they're allowing just 2.5 ypc.
Over 49.5 
Michigan State at 
Nebraska
This number opened at 53.5 and has continually gone down throughout the week. Maybe wait and see if it keeps falling, and give yourself the best possible chance at cashing. It's obviously not this simple, but Michigan State is averaging 34.3 points and Nebraska 43.5 points, and MSU is allowing 28.8 ppg defensively. That unit has been horrible against the pass, and Nebraska has been horrible against the run, so we should feel confident in Nebraska putting up points with Dylan Raiola improving, completing 75.6 percent of his passes and 11 TDs in four games. And Aidan Chiles looks improved, too, throwing nine touchdowns after 13 last season, and he can extend drives with his legs.
Notre Dame (-20.5) vs. Boise State
The Irish offense has been elite since posting "just" 24 points at Miami in Week 1, averaging 50.7 ppg against Texas A&M, Arkansas and Purdue. I'm not fully convinced their defense has been fixed after one week where they allowed 13 points at Arkansas, but it's certainly a step in the right direction. This is more an indictment on Boise, whose impressive offensive surge has come against some pretty bad teams. They aren't the juggernaut that made the playoffs last year, and when they did, they lost by 17 to Penn State. I expect the Broncos to struggle to run, and turnovers will come from forced passes as the Irish roll.
Over 53.5 
Kansas at 
Central Florida
A second total play, which isn't my bag, and it's another one where if it were only this simple. Kansas averages 36.6 ppg and UCF 34.8 ppg. Since I'm picking on West Virginia, I'll count them out as real competition, so in two games against said real competition, Kansas has allowed 42 and 34 points. Both sides have balanced offenses, porous run defenses, and UCF only statistically stands out against the pass. Speaking of real opponents, the Knights have faced only Kansas State, and allowed 34 points. Both teams should flirt with 30 points, sending this game sailing over.
Last week: 3-2; Season 11-14
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Greg's Picks
We broke away from mediocrity this past week, and we did it in style. A solid 4-1 week to get us above .500 for the season.
The lone loss this past week came on the under in the Rutgers game. Perhaps I underestimated just how much of an over team that Rutgers has become. Needless to say, I won't be going under with the Scarlet Knights any time soon.
The wins started with Notre Dame, which beat Arkansas so badly that the Hogs ended up firing their coach. While that was happening, Duke was taking care of Syracuse, which simply was not the same team without its starting QB. Meanwhile, in Champaign, the Illini were doing everything possible to keep a Trojan cover alive, but in the end, the team from Illinois covered and won the game. The final win came on the under in the Indiana-Iowa game. It was the classic Iowa under game I was expecting the week before against Rutgers, but as I just mentioned, Rutgers is not a team you want to go under on.
Georgia (-20.5) vs. Kentucky
As we all saw this past week against Alabama, the Bulldogs have some major issues, especially on defense, luckily for them the Wildcats aren't really capable of taking advantage of those flaws. Georgia has spent its past two games fighting two of the better teams from the SEC and now it gets a team on the lower end. With one loss already, there's no room to overlook anyone, so expect the Bulldogs to be ready for this one. Kentucky put up a fight against Ole Miss earlier this season, but a struggling South Carolina team blew out the 'Cats this past week.
Maryland (+6.5) vs. Washington
The jury is still out on the Terps, but it appears this could be a strong team. They rolled into Madison as a double-digit dog and blew out the Badgers, and while Wisconsin is obviously down this season, it was still an impressive showing. Washington was in a spotlight game this past week against Ohio State, and while the Huskies didn't embarrass themselves, they certainly didn't impress either. This is a bit of a leap of faith here, but I think Maryland makes another statement again this week and possibly wins outright.
Under (42.5) 
Texas at 
Florida
I wanted to go with Florida here, as I think the Gators will put up their best effort of the season in this spot, but I'm hesitant to trust the offense to score enough. Instead, I'll trust their defense to keep the Texas offense in check. Though they are 1-3 this season, the Gator defense has been solid all season, holding LSU and Miami in check. Texas has played one real team this season, and the Longhorns were unable to get anything going on offense. Since then, they've won three games, but I'm still skeptical about their offense. This is a very low number, but we've got two solid defenses and two questionable offenses.
Minnesota (+23.5) at Ohio State
This is the type of game that the Gophers have historically covered under P.J. Fleck, and the reason is that they have a way of grinding out games like this. It's almost as if they are playing to the spread often. They're going to slow this game down, play solid defense, which, up until this past week, they had done all season, and in the end, they'll lose by a couple of scores, never threatening to win, but within arm's reach of the spread the entire game. Ohio State secured a nice road win this past week, and I can see this as a look-ahead spot, not to anything in particular, but I doubt the Gophers will capture the Buckeyes' attention.
Over (55.5) 
Illinois at 
Purdue
Full disclosure, I struggled to find a 5th game this week, but after some time, I came around to this one, and I feel pretty good about it. The main reason is that both teams are led by their offense,s and both teams have struggled on defense this season. Illinois is particularly weak against the pass, and since Purdue can't really run the ball, that works out perfectly because the Boilermakers are solid through the air. As for Illinois, the offense is strong, and if it can avoid the turnovers, the points will come in bunches.
Last Week: 4-1-0 This Season 14-11-0
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Jeff's Picks
I set a record this week, although it isn't one to be proud of. For the first time ever, I went winless in the capper. I saw all of my plays fade before my eyes. Florida State disappointed most of us, but USC's struggles against Illinois started a chain of heartbreak, with Northwestern failing to cover and a pair of Total bets missing entirely. Everyone is bound to have a bad week here and there, and I'm confident I can turn things around and generate a better result this week.
Texas Tech -11 @ Houston
The Red Raiders are my pick to win the Big 12. Through the first four games of the season, they've held opponents to an average of 11 points per game. Behren Morton and his receivers have been dialed in, and RB Cameron Dickey is propping up the ground game with six touchdowns so far. The Cougars are much improved this season and are also unbeaten, but they barely squeaked by a shaky Oregon State squad last week, and that isn't an encouraging indicator. After a high spread earlier in the week, more money has flowed Houston's way, sending the line down to under two touchdowns. I think Texas Tech's defense will keep Houston reined in as they continue their march toward the Big 12 Championship.
Over 53.5 
Miami @ 
Florida State
I faded the spread because this game could go either way, but I'm confident that it will be a high-scoring affair. We saw Florida State's offensive potency last week despite the head-scratching loss to Virginia, but the Cavaliers clarified a couple of things about this Seminole team. They played their absolute best against Alabama, but they have some holes on defense that could torpedo them again this week. Both of these teams have demonstrated the ability to put at least 30 points on the board, and although I think Carson Beck and his offense have a clear edge here, we could easily see the total fly well past the current number.
Notre Dame -20.5 vs. Boise State
As an independent, Notre Dame must treat every matchup like a playoff game, and they have a schedule where the win margin is going to be a very important metric as they try to get into the CFP without a conference championship to depend on. This is especially true this week, as the loser of this matchup will likely be out of the running. While Boise State has played very well after a bad 34-7 loss to USF in the opener, they are very poor against what will be the Irish's bread and butter in this matchup. Few teams run the ball as well as Notre Dame this season, thanks to the imposing tandem of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. The Broncos rank a paltry 84th against the run, allowing an average of 193 rushing yards on the road. While this is a big number to hang against Maddux Madsen and a decent offensive scheme, I expect the Irish to leave the pedal on the gas after jumping to an early lead.
Texas -4.5@ Florida
I don't like the idea of the Longhorns heading into The Swamp, but the Longhorns are desperate for a statement win. I see a lot of interest in the Under for this game, and I would concur with that sentiment given Texas's smothering defense. DJ Lagway will have his work cut out for him against this unit, and I think Billy Napier's squad lacks the defensive discipline to get he job done. The Arch Manning era hasn't gone off as planned so far, but he needs to get going soon. The slate is clean in the SEC as they've yet to face a conference foe, and they need to start strong. A two-loss SEC team with a loss to an unranked opponent won't be enough to impress the CFP committee, and with tough tests looming, we should see the offense open up more this week.
Cincinnati -1.5 vs. Iowa State
Before discussing the Bearcats, we need to address Iowa State's injury situation. The team has seen both starting cornerbacks go down over the past week, so the Cyclones' secondary depth will be heavily tested. They've also lost two kickers and will be sending out an inexperienced walk-on to handle those duties. They'll also be down a few receivers and offensive linemen. Despite the unbeaten record and the Top-20 ranking, Iowa State is not the 14th-best team in the country. They may not even be a Top-25 team after these key losses at cornerback. I expect Brendan Sorsby to target the newcomers and utilize his dual-threat capability to keep Iowa State's defense on its heels. The public hasn't been giving the Bearcats enough respect, and I think that's a mistake this week. I am sure Rocco Becht and company will bring their best, but I can't get past the recent defensive setbacks and the kicking situation.
Last Week: 0-5-0, Season: 9-16-0
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