College Football Picks: Houston vs. LSU Best Bets
The 9-3 Cougars will make the short trip from campus to NRG Field, home of their city's Texans to face the 7-5 Tigers to wrap up a busy eight-game bowl slate Saturday evening. Houston alternated covers and losses ATS over their last five, finishing the year 8-4 ATS with the over cashing seven times, though their last two went under. LSU went just 4-8 ATS overall and 1-5 to close the season with the over hitting just three times and in none of their final four. We've got your picks, predictions, and best bets to round out your Saturday bowl viewing.
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Spread: Houston -1 (DraftKings Sportsbook); LSU +1.5 (-BetMGM)
Total: Over 41.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 42.5 (-108, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Houston -110 (FanDuel Sportsbook); LSU -105 (Caesars Sportsbook)
The spread here has been all over the map since bowl matchups were announced, but has settled back into the number it initially opened at. Houston went as high as (-3.5) in early action but has steadily trended downward over the last week. Obviously, the moneyline has moved with it. It allows us to consider just a straight winner for our best bet, but in an odd twist where I prefer to limit my risk as much as possible, I think I'd prefer a bet on the spread as there's so little at stake, I have a hard time imagining the final ends up with a one-point winner.
Though the total is trending back upward slightly, it's moved down steadily throughout early betting, opening at 45.5 and dropping to as low as 41.5. It's an interesting proposition; only three of Houston's games have gone below this low number, but LSU has been in an offensive malaise all season, resulting in seven of its 12 games going under this number.
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Houston vs. LSU Betting Picks for the Texas Bowl
Who's playing? Well, for LSU, it doesn't appear like many regulars. We know QB Garrett Nusmeier is out, as is WR Aaron Anderson, while we're waiting on potential news for WRs Nick Anderson and Barion Brown. They're also taking a major hit defensively without edges Jack Pyburn and Harold Perkins and corner Mansoor Delane. We also know it's been a tumultuous season and offseason for the Tigers with Lane Kiffin taking over after the game. Frank Wilson will handle interim duties for the fifth time, and then is curiously off to Ole Miss rather than waiting to see if Kiffin would entertain retaining him.
Houston seems far more intact. They'll be down their starting center, which could pose some snap issues, but they'll have veteran QB Conner Weigman to continue offensive continuity. He's gaining faint Heisman consideration heading into 2026, and winning 10 games would be a massive step forward for this program and carry momentum into next year.
I had some mild success in our college capper column this season, but my picks in these single-game breakdowns have been absolutely awful, so tread lightly. LSU recruits well, and this is an opportunity for their young players to make a statement, particularly defensively, where they are depleted at all three levels. The talent remains, so I don't believe this is a spot where they get throttled. Points will be at a premium.
The difference to me comes down to Houston's pass defense. In two of their three losses, they allowed 293 yards. I'm not a big believer in LSU QB Michael Van Buren, whose season high is 221 yards, and he's been held under 100 yards three times in five starts. RB Harlem Berry hasn't shown the capability of taking pressure off his shoulders, and Houston is allowing just 3.74 ypc. It's not going to be appealing to the eyes, but the Cougars scratch this one out.
Houston vs. LSU Expert Pick: Houston -1.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Houston vs. LSU Predictions for the Texas Bowl
My ultimate prediction is a lot of stalled drives and punts. Both place kickers hit 80 percent or better, but it appears LSU trusts Damian Ramos a bit more from distance. Houston's going to need two touchdown drives to combat that, and with Weigman under center and a capable rusher, I believe they can get there.
The Tigers just can't score, averaging 21.8 on the year and 16.6 with Van Buren starting. I really don't feel great about this; we've got one side with a nearly intact lineup against a team very much in transition and depleted of experience. But why is the line so narrow despite things looking so obvious?
With points at a premium, I'll trust Weigman to make enough winning plays to boost the Cougars into 2026 while LSU starts fresh Sunday morning.
Houston 20 - LSU 17
Houston vs. LSU Player Props for Saturday, December 27th
Amare Thomas, WR, Houston under 80.5 receiving yards (Underdog)
On one hand, Thomas has hit this in three of his last four but only five times overall on the year. Yes, no Delane for the Tigers is a concern, but it's DJ Pickett's time to shine, assuming he draws the assignment to shut down Thomas. He's got five inches on the Cougars top wideout, and LSU allowed more than 230 yards passing just four times all year. Thomas would need nearly 35 percent of Houston's receiving yards to hit this.
Dean Connors, RB, Houston over 21.5 receiving yards (Underdog)
A correlation play to Thomas going under. Connors caught only 31 passes all season, but has six targets in each of the Cougars' last two games and is averaging 9.3 ypc over his last six, eclipsing this mark four times. If Thomas is blanketed and/or the focal point of the defensive gameplan, Connors should feature. I like the rushing prop too (over 53.5 yards) based strictly on volume.
There curiously aren't props for Weigman, but I'd be interested in over 1.5 total touchdowns. On the LSU side, I would have interest in Trey'Dez Green's receptions and yardage in the 3-4 range and 40-50 range, respectively, if they become available. Green scoring is all that's out there, and has great multiplier odds if you want to swing big.
