This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
CFP National Championship Picks: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
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Notre Dame vs. Ohio State CFP National Championship Betting Odds
Spread: Notre Dame +8.5 (-105, Caesars Sportsbook); Ohio State -8.5 (-110 Bet MGM)
Total: Over 45.5 (-105, Caesars Sportsbook); Under 45.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Notre Dame +310 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Ohio State -380 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Notre Dame vs. Ohio State CFP National Championship Betting Picks
Remember when the college football season kicked off in Dublin, Ireland, in Week 0 back in late August? We've had hundreds of memorable games, the first run through the 12-team playoff bracket, on-campus games, etc. Now, we have arrived at the final game of the season for all of the marbles.
The Fighting Irish (14-1) and the Buckeyes (13-2) both had to play first-round, on-campus home games for various reasons. Both teams excelled and have rattled off three straight victories and covers to reach this point.
These teams have met eight times on the gridiron, which is surprising considering the geographic proximity of these institutions, as well as their lengthy histories. Ohio State leads the all-time series 6-2, including a 17-14 win in South Bend in the most recent meeting on Sept. 23, 2023. You might remember that late score and all of the gum-flapping between Ryan Day, former Irish coach Lou Holtz, etc.
Ohio State also topped Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl Jan. 1, 2016, and Jan. 2, 2006, with the last Irish win in the series coming in a 7-2 win Oct. 31, 1936. So, yeah, it's been a while for the gold domers.
Notre Dame started the season with a road win at Texas A&M on Aug. 31, a signature win for sure. However, it followed that up with a 16-14 loss against Northern Illinois of the MAC, one of the season's biggest upsets, given that the Irish were 28-point favorites.
Notre Dame didn't let the disappointment of that upset loss linger, stomping Purdue 66-7 the following week. That win over the Boilermakers touched off 10 straight wins down the stretch in the regular season and a 13-game win streak overall. Perhaps even more impressive, the Fighting Irish have rattled off 11 consecutive covers while going 12-1 against the spread (ATS) in that 13-game run.
QB Riley Leonard really showed great improvement as the season went along. He transferred in from Duke through the portal, and he got off to a slow start. However, he has completed 66.4 percent of his pass attempts for 2,606 yards, 19 TDs and 8 INTs, while going for 866 rushing yards and 16 scores on the ground.
Leonard isn't the only threat in the run game, however, as RB Jeremiyah Love has been special. He has racked up 1,121 rushing yards and a team-best 17 scores on the ground, averaging 7.1 yards per tote. He set the tone with a giant 98-yard touchdown run to open the scoring against Indiana in the first-round playoff win Dec. 20, and he punched in a short score in the semifinal win over Penn State in the Orange Bowl.
In that Penn State win, WR Jaden Greathouse had an enormous play in the passing game, too. He hauled in a 54-yard touchdown from Leonard with 4:38 to go in regulation, erasing a 24-17 deficit. Greathouse (36-464-2) and WR Beaux Collins (37-458-3) are the biggest threats in the passing game.
Ohio State lost to Oregon in the regular season, falling 32-31 on the road. It exacted revenge with a 41-21 victory in the CFP Quarterfinals in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. It lost 13-10 to bitter rival Michigan in the regular-season finale on Nov. 30 despite being a 19.5-point favorite. While it can't beat Michigan, it can replace it as the defending national champion.
Ohio State took out its day on Tennessee, 42-17, winning in the first round in a chilly Horseshoe on Dec. 21. It ran out to a gigantic 34-0 lead over Oregon in the Rose Bowl against the previously unbeaten Ducks in a stunner. Then, in the CFP Semifinal against Texas, it won 28-14 in Arlington. LB Jack Sawyer came up with the huge strip sack, scoop and score against former roommate QB Quinn Ewers of the Longhorns, and that punched Ohio State's ticket to the big game.
In that Texas game, super freshman WR Jeremiah Smith was limited to just one catch and three yards, showing the depth of this team. It isn't just one star making things happen. WR Carnell Tate led the way with seven grabs and 87 yards in the Texas win, while RB TreVeyon Henderson had a momentum-shifting 75-yard catch and run for TD just before halftime. WR Emeka Egbuka had five receptions, too.
QB Will Howard has been getting better and better as the CFP playoffs have progressed, and he threw for 289 yards in the win over Texas. He has two costly picks in the Michigan loss, but he has 6 TDs and 2 INTs in the three playoff games, averaging 306.3 passing yards per contest.
In the run game, Henderson (132-967-10) and RB Quinshon Judkins (183-960-12) are an immensely talented and dangerous one-two punch, and Henderson showed he can catch the ball out of the backfield, too. And, yes, in the passing game, Smith should certainly not be forgotten despite doing next to nothing against Texas. Smith has 71 receptions, 1,227 yards, 14 TDs and 17.3 yards per grab. Egbuka is a great secondary option with 75 grabs, 947 yards and 10 TDs, while Tate is a fantastic tertiary receiver with 50 catches, 698 yards and 4 TDs.
Notre Dame's run game and defense should be able to make this a one-score game. Ohio State has a solid defense, too, especially when it comes down to the red zone. The offense is elite and will test this Irish D. This game is set up to be a good one on paper. The line opened at 9.5 at some shops, and if you were able to get in on that early, good job. Take the points with the Irish, as they look to keep this within one score. Ultimately, Ohio State should get the win, but there is no value on the moneyline.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Expert Pick: Fighting Irish +8.5 (-105 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Predictions for CFP National Championship
As far as the total is concerned, it could be rather complicated.
The Fighting Irish posted 434.0 total yards per game, while rolling up 225.8 rushing yards per game. That led to 37.7 points per game (PPG), which is the fourth-best mark in the nation.
Notre Dame's strength is its defense, however, going for 319.6 total yards per game to rank 20th in the nation, while limiting teams to 13.6 PPG, which was second overall. It is hard on the pass game, allowing only 177.1 yards per game through the air.
Ohio State managed 428.3 total yards per game, ranking 31st nationally, while slinging it for 265.1 yards per game, checking in 25th. That will be a huge test for the Irish D, even though it excels against the pass. Ohio State racked up 35.8 PPG, including 111 total points in three playoff games, or 37.0 PPG.
Defensively, the Buckeyes ranked No. 1 in total yards allowed (251.1), passing yards allowed (161.1), and points allowed (12.2) per game while ranking third in rushing yards (89.9) per outing. And, as mentioned, the red-zone defense is turgid, too.
The lean is to go low in this one. Playing Notre Dame with the points and the Under is worth a look for a Same-Game Parlay (SGP), and it's not a bad play on a teaser if your shop offers that option.
Ohio State 23-19
