This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Best Bets
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New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Betting Odds for the New Mexico Bowl
Spread: New Mexico State -3.5 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook); Fresno State +4 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: 51 (Over, -110 DraftKings Sportsbook); 51.5 (Under, -110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: New Mexico State -170 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Fresno State +150 (ESPN BET)
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The New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) battle the Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl on Saturday afternoon from University Stadium in Albuquerque, N.M. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:45 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+.
This will be the 20th meeting all-time between these teams, and Fresno State holds a commanding 18-1 series lead. Fresno State won 30-17 in the most recent meeting in Las Cruces on Sept. 28, 2019, while New Mexico State's only win in the series came on Nov. 12, 2011, also in Las Cruces. This is a series that dates back to Sept. 23, 1972.
New Mexico State won 10 games this season, only its second-ever double-digit win total in a single season. The Aggies won 11 games in 1960 for head coach Warren Woodson, culminating in a Sun Bowl victory against Utah State.
Fresno State started the season 8-1 but stumbled hard down the stretch, losing the final three games of the season at San Jose State, home to New Mexico and at San Diego State.
The transfer portal and opt-outs are big news at this time of year, and these teams are certainly no exception. NMSU WR Trent Hudson hit the portal, and he was second on the team with 35 catches, 565 receiving yards and a team-best 10 touchdowns. He also had 112 yards and two scores in the Conference USA Championship Game loss to Liberty. QB Diego Pavia is not in the portal, but he was knocked out of the C-USA title game, and carries a questionable tag into the ABQ.
Pavia's injury is big news, but he is expected to be a full-go for the game. He not only passed for 2,915 yards, 26 TD and 8 INT with a 61.6 completion percentage, but the New Mexico native also led the team with 853 yards, 5.4 yards per carry and six TD.
For the Bulldogs, there is a lot more news from the portal front, injury front and even coaching front. Head coach Jeff Tedford will skip the game due to health concerns, so Tim Skipper will be the team's acting head coach. QB Logan Fife, who subbed in while QB Mikey Keene was injured, hit the portal. But Keene is ready, and he completed 66.1 percent of his passes for 2,596 yards, 21 TD and 9 INT. We'll have exception quarterback play on both sides.
Fresno State S Chrishawn Gordon and LB Raymond Scott are in the portal, and OT Jacob Spomer has been ruled out due to injury. Gordon had 14 tackles, a sack and two passes defensed in eight games, while Scott had 10 solo tackles and a pass defensed in seven outings.
The Aggies were cover kings this season, going 9-0-1 ATS in 10 games prior to the C-USA title game loss and noncover. That includes a 31-10 rout of Auburn in its place, where they won outright as a 25-point 'dog, while also bringing home a $1.8M paycheck to boot. The Under is 9-3 in the past 12 games for the Ags, too.
The Bulldogs have cashed in just one of the past eight games overall, while the Over is 3-1 in the past four games and 5-2 across the past seven contests.
The weather is treacherous in other bowl games, but it will be pleasant in Albuquerque. The forecast calls for temperatures around 50 degrees with partly cloudy skies, 0 percent chance of precipitation and light winds from two to four mph.
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Betting Picks for the New Mexico Bowl
It will be unusual for the Aggies in Albuquerque, but the crowd will be on their side on the campus of rival University of New Mexico. It's a quick three-hour jaunt up Interstate 25 from Las Cruces to the ABQ, so expect a lot of crimson and white dotting the stands, backing the Ags.
Pavia will be a handful for a Bulldogs defense, which was just so-so this season. Fresno State allowed 385.1 total yards per game, ranking 73rd in the nation, and it was gouged for 168.2 rushing yards per game, good for just 98th in the country.
The New Mexico State offense lit it up for 428.1 total yards per game, 224.9 passing yards and 203.2 rushing yards. The run total was good for 12th in the country. Like Fresno, NMSU is rather ordinary on offense, so we can expect a decent amount of points here, too.
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Expert Pick: Over 51 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Predictions for the New Mexico Bowl
In addition to playing the Over, look to New Mexico State for the cover. The Aggies have failed to cover the spread just twice since Sept. 9, pushing at most shops in Week 4 at Hawaii, while posting a noncover against Liberty in the C-USA title game on the road at Liberty.
On the flip side, Fresno State has just a single cover against Boise State on Nov. 4 in the past eight games dating back to Sept. 23. It did fire out of the box with a pair of off-campus wins, and covers against Power 5 teams Purdue and Arizona State back in September, but that seems like such a long time ago now.
Fresno State has dropped the past three games, it is averaging just 17.7 PPG in the past three outings, and the defense has allowed 33.3 PPG in the same stretch. To make matters worse, Skipper, not Tedford will be on the sidelines. Jerry Kill has done an excellent job with the Aggies, they're playing in their home state, and they mostly avoided any disruption from the portal or injuries. Gimme the Ags minus the points, in addition to going high on the total.
