College Football Picks: Virginia vs Missouri Gator Bowl Best Bets
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The holidays have arrived, and it's bowl season for many of those throughout the country. Unfortunatel,y these teams fell short of their ultimate goal of a College Football Playoff bid; however, they received a consolation prize in the form of the Gator Bowl. These two teams have very little history as they have faced off just one time before back in 1973, with Missouri coming out on top. In this one, Virginia comes in with a record of 10-3 as the 19th ranked team in the nation after losing in the ACC Championship Game, ending all hopes of possibly making the 12-team Playoff. Missouri comes in unranked with a record of 8-4.
Virginia vs Missouri Betting Odds for the Gator Bowl
Spread: Virginia +4.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Missouri -4 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Virginia +156 (Caesars Sportsbook); Missouri -185 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 44.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 45.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Virginia vs Missouri Betting Picks for the Gator Bowl
For the Tigers, starting quarterback Beau Pribula has announced his intention to enter the transfer portal and has opted out of the game. This will force Missouri to start freshman quarterback Matt Zollers. The freshman has seen extended action in three games on the season after coming in to replace an injured Pribula against Vanderbilt and then starting the following games against Texas A&M and Mississippi State. Zollers went 14-of-23 for 138 yards and one touchdown against the Commodores, then followed it up by going 7-of-23 for 77 yards against the Aggies. Zollers' final season tallies were 35-of-66 for 402 yards with four touchdowns and one interception.
Luckily for the Tigers, the offense has been very much driven by the run game throughout the season. Missouri finished the season first in the SEC and eighth in the nation in rushing for the year with 234.1 yards per game. The Missouri rushing attack is led by the nation's second-leading rusher, Ahmad Hardy, who has racked up 1,560 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground this season. Behind Hardy is another strong back in Jamal Roberts who has totaled 697 yards rushing on 6.2 yards per carry. Missouri also features the SEC's second-best defense which allows an average of just 274.8 yards per game. Much of the Tigers' defensive success is due to a fearsome duo of edge rushers in Damon Wilson and Zion Young. Wilson leads the team with 9 sacks on the season, followed closely by Young with 6.5.
On the other side of things, the Cavaliers are not expected to have any major opt-outs. Virginia has been solid on both sides of the ball as they feature the ACC's third ranked offense and third ranked defense, which average 426.3 total yards per game and allow an average of 313.3 yards per game.
The Cavaliers are led by quarterback Chandler Morris who has completed 64.6% of his passes for 2,802 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions while also adding five touchdowns on the ground. Virginia also features a strong ground game with J'Mari Taylor who has rushed for 1,062 yards on 4.8 yards per carry with 14 touchdowns on the season. The Cavaliers defense has also done a great job of creating turnovers, as they have forced 20 turnovers on the season. Defensive back Ja'son Prevard leads the way with three interceptions, while defensive end Mitchell Melton leads the team with three forced fumbles.
Virginia vs Missouri Expert Pick: Missouri - 4 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Virginia vs Missouri Predictions for the Gator Bowl
While the Tigers are missing a big piece of their offense in Beau Pribula, most of their offensive attack has been centered around the running game this season. Missouri has shown the ability to continually run the ball well against strong defenses in the SEC while also limiting some of the nation's best teams on the defensive side of the ball. While the Cavaliers have done a great job on the season in the ACC they have not had to deal with a defense as talented and ferocious as the Tigers. The Cavaliers might be a bit overmatched in this one.
Missouri 24, Virginia 10
Virginia vs Missouri Player Props for Saturday, December 27th
Ahmad Hardy over 119.5 Rushing Yards (Underdog)
With quarterback Beau Pribula opting out of this game, and freshman quarterback Matt Zollers taking over, I would expect the Tigers to feature the ground game early and often in this one. Hardy has averaged 130 yards per game on the season and with a game plan set on feeding him I would expect him to get right around that number, beating the 119.5 yard mark.
