This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a running back after the top-12 picks are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Travis Etienne, Kyren Williams and De'Von Achane.
Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars
Upside
Etienne has posted between 1,440 and 1,484 scrimmage yards in the past two seasons. The running back also scored 12 touchdowns last year. With no real threat on the roster to see significant backfield carries, the former Clemson Tiger should handle at least 240 carries. There is also room to build on his 58 receptions last season. Also, the Jaguars did make offseason additions to an offensive line that struggled to create space. Another hope is that head coach Doug Pederson takes over the play calling from Press Taylor, especially since Pederson likely knows the coaching staff won't survive another disappointing season. In that scenario, the entire Jacksonville offense could see a significant boost in production. Should that happen, Etienne would benefit from the team running more plays and scoring
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a running back after the top-12 picks are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Travis Etienne, Kyren Williams and De'Von Achane.
Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars
Upside
Etienne has posted between 1,440 and 1,484 scrimmage yards in the past two seasons. The running back also scored 12 touchdowns last year. With no real threat on the roster to see significant backfield carries, the former Clemson Tiger should handle at least 240 carries. There is also room to build on his 58 receptions last season. Also, the Jaguars did make offseason additions to an offensive line that struggled to create space. Another hope is that head coach Doug Pederson takes over the play calling from Press Taylor, especially since Pederson likely knows the coaching staff won't survive another disappointing season. In that scenario, the entire Jacksonville offense could see a significant boost in production. Should that happen, Etienne would benefit from the team running more plays and scoring more points. A 1,500-yard season with double-digit touchdowns is the upside case.
Downside
Unlike in 2022, when Etienne had 1,440 yards on 255 touches, he needed 315 touches to get to 1,484 yards last season. The halfback's yards per carry fell from 5.1 to 3.8. If the offensive line doesn't play significantly better, it could continue to limit his efficiency. Also, if the Jacksonville offense remains as inefficient as they were last year, Etienne and his teammates could struggle when playing better defenses. Another concern is that after averaging 19 carries in the first half of 2023, Etienne averaged 12.9 carries in the second half. If the second-half usage carries over, that would keep Etienne from reaching his upside. Another concern is if the passing game begins to play at a high level Etienne may see a dip from the 73 targets he had last year. The downside case has the veteran struggling to top 1,300 yards and six touchdowns.
The Bottom Line
There's no question Etienne is an outstanding player. Unless his teammates and the coaching staff show improvement, we may not see the monster season the running back seems capable of. The floor is not terrible, but it's not as high as we'd like in a top-10 running back. That said, the floor that the halfback has shown in the last two seasons has been very useful. If drafting for a high floor, Etienne is a sensible pick.
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams
Upside
Simply put, last year's 1,350 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns in 12 games is Williams' upside. If Williams retains a similar role to last year while finding a way to play 15+ games, he could be a top-five running back. In the past, we've often seen head coach Sean McVay commit to a lead back. If that's the case, workload will not be an issue. Also, one of the reasons for Williams' success may be that the Rams ran a lot of downhill plays against light defensive boxes. In those scenarios, defenses had little answers for Williams as a runner. It also should be noted the veteran had an 83rd-percentile yards-after-contact rate, so he was excellent at getting yards on his own. A healthier version of last year would put Williams in the 1,700-yard range with double-digit touchdowns.
Downside
If the Rams were successful last year because of the schemed rushing attack, it's possible Williams was simply in the right place at the right time. Remember, the running back was needed in 2022, but the team gave him 35 carries in which he averaged 4.0 yards per carry, a full yard less than his 2023 production. If rookie Blake Corum is a better player than Williams during training camp, McVay could make this a shared backfield. McVay could also let the better player take the lead or go with a hot-hand approach. Should either of those factors occur, Williams would not have the usage needed to justify an early pick in drafts. Another concern about Williams is the fact he missed five games last year, and that doesn't include him breaking his hand in the NFL Playoffs. During the preseason, Williams was dealing with a foot injury. Maybe it's nothing. For a player who had durability concerns, that could be a red flag. The downside is Williams posting fewer than 1,000 scrimmage yards and missing significant time.
The Bottom Line
Maybe the injuries of last year and the presence of Corum mean little to nothing. Fantasy managers who feel that way should feel comfortable drafting Williams with the expectation of 80-100 scrimmage yards per game. Those who see the warning signs as probable realities in 2024 should consider fading Williams.
De'Von Achane, RB, Dolphins
Upside
We will never forget that from Weeks 2-4, Acahne scored 101 PPR points while posting 518 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns. During that time the runner averaged 12.6 yards per carry. Over the entire campaign, the playmaker averaged 7.8 yards per rush. As a player, the speed as a rusher and receiver is elite. When the Dolphins offense is rolling, Achane has the potential to take any play for a touchdown. Even though Achane may not see more than 12-15 touches per game, a 1,400-yard season with double-digit scores is possible.
Downside
In the last seven games (including playoffs) of his rookie year, Achane averaged 4.97 yards per carry. Yes, that is a great number. However, it is nowhere close to the 12.6 yards per carry the player had in the three-game sample that made him a fantasy star. Aside from the diminished production as the season went on, Achane missed six games due to injury. At 5-foot-9, 188 pounds, it seems improbable the speedster will see heavy volume. If the explosiveness is not off the charts when he's on the field, Achane's weekly floor could be low. If the workload is held down, and we see the same player from the stretch run, Achane's floor is 800 yards and five touchdowns. That would not be worth a premium draft pick.
The Bottom Line
Those who want to bet on Achane being the same player we saw early in his rookie year should prioritize drafting him as a top-10 running back. Given the fact his production slowed drastically as the season went on along with possible durability concerns of a smaller running back, Achane would only be a value if he fell significantly in drafts. This running back may be the definition of reaching for league-winning upside while ignoring risk.
The Final Word
I feel like the safest player in this group is Etienne. Even though the coaching staff is determined to limit his work, the lack of backfield competition should ensure enough work for the running back to have another 1,400-yard season. Although Achane and Williams may both have durability concerns, Williams gets the edge because there was no point in which his production fell off for long periods last year. That said, even though Achane has questions, those who want to shoot for the biggest possible upside should roll the dice on him.
