ADP Analysis: NFC East Players to Watch in 2023

Entering last season, the NFC East was considered a middling division. The Eagles and Cowboys were projected by many to make the playoffs. But the Giants and Commanders were not given much respect. Improbably, each team in the division finished with at least a .500 record. In addition, every team except the Commanders made the playoffs while the Eagles represented the NFC in the Super Bowl. This year, the Eagles are on the short list of favorites to make the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are potentially in that mix as well. Meanwhile, the Giants and Commanders also have a chance to make the postseason. Check out the current Super Bowl odds on the RotoWire Gambling page.  Let's look at a few of the interesting fantasy options in the division.

Dallas Cowboys

Tony Pollard

With Ezekiel Elliott no longer on the Cowboys, the only RB competition that Pollard has on the roster entering the draft is Malik Jackson and Ronald Jones. Even if a running back is drafted, Pollard is the clear lead back who should play on all three downs. That doesn't mean he'll get all the work. But the expectation should be that he flirts with 15-18 touches in most games. At 6-foot, 209, Pollard might not have too heavy a workload, as keeping him fresh and explosive should be the primary goal. In 2022, Pollard showed how explosive he is by ranking 99th percentile in yards after contact and 79th percentile in yards after the catch. Between his big-play ability and increased workload, he recorded 1,378 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns. And it's not as if he was only great last year. He's rushed for at least 5.2 yards per carry in three of his four years in the league. Even though the Dallas offensive line isn't quite the dominating unit it once was, Pollard has been successful. That should continue as the line continues to go through transition: 

• Pollard's 1,378 scrimmage yards was more than 300 than his previous high (2021).
• He had a 91st-percentile broken-tackle rate.
• He also posted 39 receptions each of the last two years.
• His 9.5 yards per reception was a career high (8.6).

Although Pollard likely won't lead running backs in touches, I have no hesitation ranking him as a top-10 RB. He's worth a draft pick as early as the second round.

New York Giants

Daniel Jones

In 2020 and 2021, Jones finished outside the top-18 QBs in fantasy points per game. Once the Giants brought in coach Brian Daboll, Jones was unlocked as a runner and finished top-12 at his position in fantasy points per game. His strong fantasy campaign was thanks to rushing for 708 yards and seven touchdowns. As a passer, he threw for less than a touchdown per game while posting uninspiring yardage totals. The big question is whether Daboll found something that is either sustainable or can be built upon with Jones, or if they simply caught the league off guard. In terms of the poor passing numbers, many point to the Giants' lack of weapons. Fair enough. By the end of the season, the team's top receiving options were Isaiah Hodgins, Richie James and Darius Slayton. This year, they will hope to have Wan'Dale Robinson healthy after suffering a knee injury in the second half of the season. They also added TE Darren Waller, so potentially, the unit will have a significant upgrade:

• Jones averaged 200 passing yards per game last year.
• He threw 15 TD passes in 16 games.
• After rushing 127 times in 2020-2021, he ran 120 times last year.

Daboll has proven for years that he's a great offensive mind. That said, I expect defenses to make adjustments when facing Jones. By committing to limit him as a runner, teams will force him to win through the air. If he doesn't run for at least 500 yards, I've seen nothing from him to make me believe he can put up consistent fantasy points through the air. I have him ranked outside the top 15 at his position, and I will only roster him in leagues that start multiple QBs. 

Philadelphia Eagles

Rashaad Penny

Few players in the league are as explosive as Penny. He recorded a 99th-percentile yards-after-contact rate last year. In each of the last two years, he's rushed for more than six yards per carry. He did that while playing with a Seattle team that didn't have an exceptional run-blocking offensive line. Now, he moves to Philadelphia. In terms of offensive lines, there might not be a better one in the NFL. So, what's the issue? Yep, it's the injuries. He's played 42 of 82 career games. During the last four years, he's missed at least six games each year. And in the last three years, he has two seasons in which he missed at least 12 games. Now that's a track record! But will anything be different in Philadelphia? We can't say for sure, of course. But we can say is that the Eagles have been a smart organization over the years. Despite seeing a career-high workload, they limited Miles Sanders workload when it made sense last year, and they had him on the field for all 17 games. Knowing Penny's history, I envision the Eagles limiting him to 8-12 touches per week. That might not keep him from missing time, but it could give them the best chance of having him for the playoffs:

• Penny never had more than 119 carries in a season.
• He rushed for at least 20 yards on 16 of his last 176 carries.
• He also ran for at least 54 yards in four of the five games he played last year.
• And at the end of the 2021 season, he rushed for at least 135 yards in four of his last five games.

Obviously, it's risky drafting a player with Penny's injury history. And if the Eagles limit his workload, he might not have as many big games as we'd like. But knowing that he'll be available in the second half of most drafts will make it tempting to select him. Even if he has flex value due to seeing less work, the Eagles have a chance to keep him on the field for more games than Seattle. As long as the draft cost is favorable, the payoff is worth having shares of Penny.

Washington Commanders

Jahan Dotson

The Commanders selected Dotson with the 16th pick in the 2022 draft. Some might look at the 523 yards he recorded and sense a bit of disappointment. However, I thought he looked like a superstar in the making. He started out the season without reaching 60 yards in any of his first four games before suffering an injury and missing the next five games. Upon his return, he did little in his first three games back. But he ended the season on a high note by posting at least 72 yards in three of his last four games. In addition, he was an excellent red-zone threat all year. He scored four times in his first four games and three times in his last five. And it wasn't as if the Commanders were lighting up the scoreboard. Entering 2023, the QB situation doesn't look great, as Sam Howell could start. But it can't be much worse than last year, when Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke were under center. It also helps that Dotson plays across from Terry McLaurin, so it's unlikely that defenses will make Dotson the priority when planning coverage assignments:

• Dotson had an impressive 14.9 yards per reception.
• He was targeted at least five times in seven of his last 12 games.
• He only had two games in which he was targeted fewer than four times.

I can't say the Commanders will have a robust passing game this year. But with Dotson excellent in the short and intermediate areas of the field, I expect him to see a significant increase from the 5.0 targets per game he had last year. Also, TE Logan Thomas showed major signs of decline last year, which could give Dotson more targets this year. I have him projected at WR33, and I expect him to be available after the top-36 receivers are off the board. Not only should he have a strong scoring floor, but a big breakout season is on the table, making him a player to target in drafts.