This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a strong RB after the top 15 (or so) are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Aaron Jones, D'Andre Swift and Zamir White.
Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings
Upside
After working his way through injury in 2023, Jones reminded us about his upside when he finished the season by posting at least 118 scrimmage yards in the last five games (including playoffs). Even in an injury-plagued campaign in which he missed six games while being limited in others, the running back was in the 64th percentile in broken tackle rate. In addition, the veteran finished in the 73rd percentile in yards after the catch and 75th percentile in yards after contact. Despite last year's injuries, Jones missed only four games between 2019-2022, so he's been mostly durable. While in Green Bay, the star runner was often in a committee. Now on a one-year deal with the Vikings, it seems unlikely Ty Chandler is a serious threat
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a strong RB after the top 15 (or so) are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Aaron Jones, D'Andre Swift and Zamir White.
Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings
Upside
After working his way through injury in 2023, Jones reminded us about his upside when he finished the season by posting at least 118 scrimmage yards in the last five games (including playoffs). Even in an injury-plagued campaign in which he missed six games while being limited in others, the running back was in the 64th percentile in broken tackle rate. In addition, the veteran finished in the 73rd percentile in yards after the catch and 75th percentile in yards after contact. Despite last year's injuries, Jones missed only four games between 2019-2022, so he's been mostly durable. While in Green Bay, the star runner was often in a committee. Now on a one-year deal with the Vikings, it seems unlikely Ty Chandler is a serious threat to Jones' potential workload. As a potential three-down back with red zone usage, Jones could finish inside the top 12 at running back.
Downside
There is always a concern a running back will decline quickly as he ages. Jones will turn 30 in December. Optimists will point out that the former UTEP standout has averaged just 168 carries in his seven-year career. Those looking at the downside will point out the injury woes of 2023 as well as the fact that few 30-year-old running backs are playing at a high level. Another issue may be if the team is stubborn about getting Chandler on the field for significant snaps. Volume is critical for high-end fantasy production. If Jones is held to fewer than 250 touches, it will be difficult to finish inside the top 18 of backs. The downside case has Jones falling outside the top 20 at his position.
The Bottom Line
Jones has not shown tangible signs of decline. Even if the running back is less effective than he's been, Jones should still see work as a runner, receiver and red-zone option. Typically being drafted outside the top 15 at his position, Jones should see enough work to be a value and could be a steal in drafts.
D'Andre Swift, RB, Bears
Upside
The new-look Bears are hoping to have a high-powered offense this season. If Caleb Williams proves to be a star as a rookie, the team will have an electric passing game with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet as the top pass-catchers. In that scenario, defenses will be forced to dedicate much of their personnel to stopping the passing attack. Should that happen, Swift could see significant yards before contact as a runner. Also, if the veteran is used in the receiving game similarly to his days in Detroit, Swift could produce 400 yards in that capacity. If everything comes together for Chicago, Swift is an all-purpose back who posts 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns.
Downside
While in Philadelphia last year, Swift had an excellent offensive line. However, after Week 3, the running back averaged just 3.92 yards per carry. It's fair to question Swift's vision once he gets past the first wave of tacklers, as he was unable to take advantage of a great situation. Also, the Eagles chose not to use Swift as a receiver. After averaging 399 receiving yards in three years with the Lions, the former Georgia Bulldog posted 214 yards and a career-low 5.5 yards per reception. If Swift is unimpressive, as he often was last year, Khalil Herbert may cut into the rushing attempts. Also, solid pass protector Roschon Johnson could see significant passing-down snaps. The downside has Swift in a committee and ending the year with fewer than 1,000 scrimmage yards.
The Bottom Line
The Bears signed Swift almost immediately after free agency began. That indicates the runner was a clear target for the team. As a result, Swift should begin the year in a featured role. However, it is very possible what we saw in Philadelphia is who the player is right now. In that scenario, this is a running back who gets the yards that are blocked and not much else. It is very possible that as the season goes on this backfield turns into a committee situation. Should that happen, Swift would finish outside the top 20 at his position.
Zamir White, RB, Raiders
Upside
The Raiders made their vision clear when they brought back coach Antonio Pierce. This team wants to play defense and run the football. With only Alexander Mattison along with receiving backs Ameer Abdullah and Dylan Laube as competition, White could match the 22 touches per game he averaged in the four starts he made at the end of the 2023 season. Las Vegas has a solid run-blocking offensive line. That matches up well with the former Georgia Bulldog, who averaged 4.3 yards per carry. White was in the 69th percentile in yards after contact. Given the volume and assuming he matches last year's efficiency, White could exceed 1,200 scrimmage yards.
Downside
Small sample sizes can be tough to trust. White was playing with fresh legs against a tired league when he performed well in 2023. On a level playing field in 2024, the efficiency may drop. Should that happen, the ordinary Alexander Mattison could be worked into the early-down mix. Also, if the Raiders' defense sputters, game script could be a consistent issue. Should that happen, Abdullah or Laube could find themselves on the field when the team is in hurry-up mode. If White is unable to get the volume many expect, finishing the season with fewer than 1,000 scrimmage yards is on the table.
The Bottom Line
There are a lot of variables with White, especially after seeing him in a small sample last year. The good news is that White is being drafted outside the top 18 at his position. This indicates expectations are not sky-high. With uninspiring backfield competition, it seems likely White will see at least 12 touches per week, and as many as 20. The Raider should have a solid scoring floor based on his draft cost. If all goes well, White could easily exceed expectations.
The Final Word
Despite being easily the oldest player in this ADP battle, Jones is the only one I see who can finish as a top-12 RB. In addition, Jones should have an excellent weekly floor. Fantasy managers concerned about age may choose to fade Jones, but I am not in that camp. White is my second choice. The Raiders' team identity fits the running back perfectly, and the lack of real backfield competition should ensure volume. Although there is an upside case for Swift, he was uninspiring in a great situation while in Philadelphia. It's hard to imagine Chicago is a better landing spot for the halfback. Of these three backs, Swift seems to be the one who could most easily be pushed into a committee.
