Backfield Breakdown: RB Usage Report & Week 14 Waivers Preview

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

Christian McCaffrey (knee) & Jordan Mason (high ankle)

Bucky Irving (hip)

Roschon Johnson (concussion)

McCaffrey and Mason are headed for injured reserve, leaving rookie Isaac Guerendo as the 49ers' lead back for the final month of the season. They also figure to sign Patrick Taylor from the practice squad, and his role may include a lot of the passing-down work. Guerendo is averaging 5.9 YPC on 42 career carries, boosted by a game-sealing, 76-yard run Week 6 at Seattle when both McCaffrey and Mason were injured.

Irving, meanwhile, not only played through a hip injury but nearly doubled his previous highs for carries and rushing yards with a 25-152-1 rushing line (plus 3-33-0 receiving). He out-touched Rachaad White by a margin of 28-12, after holding an 18-13 advantage the previous week. However, the hip injury could lead to a pause (or even backslide) in Irving's role growth, giving White and/or Sean Tucker a shot to take more carries.

Missed Week 13

Alexander Mattison (ankle / week-to-week) & Zamir White (quad / week-to-week)

Kendre Miller (IR - hamstring / eligible Week 14)

MarShawn Lloyd (ankle/appendix / eligible Week 16)

J.K. Dobbins (knee - IR / eligible Week 17)

Austin Ekeler (concussion - IR / eligible Week 18)

Stock Report 📊

A lot of what you'll see here is building on my work from Box Score Breakdown, the weekly recap article with stat tables for every team that include snaps, routes, and target/air-yard shares, in addition to all the basic stats like carries, catches, yards and TDs. I also discuss role specifics and make note of various circumstances that could cause numbers to be misleading, so it's worth checking out if you're looking to go into even more detail on running backs before making waiver adds or lineup decisions for the upcoming week.

Note: Opps. = carries + targets    

All stats below are from Week 13 only unless otherwise specified      

Trending Up 📈

Bucky Irving - 53% snaps, 32% routes, 28 of 40 RB opps, 185 total yards + TD

 Alvin Kamara - 85% snaps, 29 of 30 RB opps, 119 total yards  /  Taysom Hill injury

Isaac Guerendo - McCaffrey/Mason injuries

Rico Dowdle - career-high 71% snaps, 25 of 29 RB opps, 123 total yards + TD

Bijan Robinson - 74% snaps, 32 of 41 RB opps, 135 total yards + TD

Tyrone Tracy - 71% snaps, 12 of 20 RB opps, 65 total yards + TD

Rhamondre Stevenson - 77% snaps, 71 routes, 21 of 28 RB opps, 94 total yards

James Cook - 15 of 22 RB opps before the final two drives of blowout win

Jonathon Brooks - 21% snaps, nine of 21 RB opps, 41 total yards

 Jerome Ford - 66% snaps, 10 of 21 RB opps, 62 total yards

Isaiah Davis - 18% snaps, four of 24 RB opps, 32 total yards + TD

Sincere McCormick - 38% snaps, 18% routes, 14 of 26 RB opps, 65 total yards

Raheem Mostert - 37% snaps, eight of 24 RB opps, 34 total yards

Cordarrelle Patterson - 15% snaps, six of 35 RB opps, 53 total yards

Trending Down 📉

Breece Hall - 61% snaps, 54% Routes, 13 of 24 RB opps, 60 total yards

 Aaron Jones - 51% snaps, 39% routes, nine of 15 RB opps, 28 total yards + TD

 Kyren Williams - 67% snaps, 46% routes, 16 of 24 RB opps, 113 total yards + TD

 Chuba Hubbard - 79% snaps, 62% routes, 12 of 21 RB opps, 43 total yards

Gus Edwards - 53% snaps, 36% routes, seven of 12 RB opps, 33 total yards

Ameer Abdullah - 62% snaps, 58% routes, 12 of 26 RB opps, 53 total yards

Nick Chubb - 34% snaps, 11 of 21 RB opps, 44 total yards + TD

Tank Bigsby - 46% snaps, 50% routes, eight of 24 RB opps, 35 total yards

Tyjae Spears - 26% snaps, one of 15 RB opps, 3 total yards

Jeremy McNichols - 25% snaps, six of 36 RB opps, 32 total yards

Jaylen Warren - 38% snaps, 30% routes, seven of 35 RB opps, 64 total yards

Jaylen Wright - one snap, no touches

A bunch of RBs that have been solid fantasy starters this season (Aaron Jones, Chuba Hubbard, Breece Hall, Kyren Williams) had lower-than-usual snap/touch rates Week 13. Jones fumbled on two of his first four carries, and while he wasn't benched, he got just one more carry the rest of the day. Hubbard was in his usual range for snap share (79 percent) yet got just three more touches (12-9) than rookie Jonathon Brooks, who had been barely noticeable the week before in his first NFL game.

Hall yielded more work than usual to his backups, but it was Isaiah Davis rather than Braelon Allen who benefited, with Allen staying in his normal role with around 20 percent of snaps and 4-8 touches. (Kyren) Williams also lost more snaps/touches than usual to his backup, in part because Blake Corum's designated drive in the second quarter was highly successful and accounted for a significant chunk of the Rams' offensive plays on a day when they ran just 55 total. Corum didn't play all that much after the drive, getting just three more carries on a handful or so of snaps.

Unsettled Backfields 🎲

These are the backfields that need to be monitored closely, where role changes could be imminent or we aren't sure about the team's depth chart moving forward. Backfield with a clear hierarchy/order won't be included unless there's a long-term injury to the starter and the backup situation is uncertain or confusing. 

Messy Backfields

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Kansas City Chiefs

With Tank Bigsby healthy after a Week 12 bye, the Jaguars surprisingly trotted out a reversed version of the split we saw at times earlier this season, with Bigsby taking slightly more snaps and being on the field for a majority of pass plays while Travis Etienne was the featured runner. That's the opposite of what many expected, but either way it's not a great arrangement for fantasy value, potentially setting up a fantasy-scoring split around 60/40 in an offense that isn't likely to provide a ton of points for RBs in general without the guys breaking off long plays. Etienne and Bigsby both are worth having on benches in most leagues, but they aren't guys we want to be starting outside of desperation situations.

The Chiefs may soon go back to Isiah Pacheco working as the dominant ballcarrier, but that wasn't  the case Friday in his first game since Week 2. Pacheco instead split carries with Kareem Hunt, and the Chiefs still used Samaje Perine in some clear passing/hurry-up situations. While it's possible Hunt is a non-factor within a week or two, we shouldn't 100 percent assume it at the moment, i.e., Pacheco makes for a risky Week 14 start.

On the Brink

1. Denver Broncos
2. Los Angeles Chargers

Quiet for most of the season, Denver's Jaleel McLaughlin returned to relevance the past two weeks, taking seven carries for 44 yards in Week 12 (29 percent snaps) and then 14 carries for 84 yards in Week 13 (36 percent snaps). Javonte Williams got more playing time in both games, but he  took only four carries for one yard Monday and is averaging only 5.5 carries for 14.8 yards over the past four weeks. Audric Estime was the lead runner in one game, and now we've seen McLaughlin serve as such when he had more early success than Williams/Estime. This looks like a true hot-hand/committee backfield, in which Williams is the safest bet for playing time but any of three RBs can get the most carries in a given game.

Chargers RB Gus Edwards didn't exactly assert himself in the first game without J.K. Dobbins (knee), taking just seven touches for 33 yards on 53 percent snap share on an afternoon when the Chargers ran only 46 plays. A pass-heavy gameplan combined with reduced team volume were part of the problem, but Edwards also missed out on a bunch of snaps that Dobbins had been getting when healthy. Edwards got just six of the 11 RB carries and 36 percent route share, which suggests he may be more of an RB3 than RB2 while Dobbins is out. Kimani Vidal took 27% snap share and four carries for 20 yards, with Hassan Haskins getting one short-yardage carry and some third-down work (13% snap share overall). Vidal is the threat to replace Edwards as the lead runner if Edwards doesn't show well in the coming weeks.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

If you're looking for a more comprehensive waivers article, RW's Kevin Payne has you covered. Here we're just taking a quick look at some RBs to target based on the work contained in this article and Monday's Box Score Breakdown. 

In order to qualify, the RB needs to be rostered in no more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Potential Short-Term Starters

1. Isaac Guerendo - 8%
2. Ameer Abdullah - 19%
3. Jerome Ford - 39%
4. Tank Bigsby - 44%
5. Justice Hill - 21%
6. Jaleel McLaughlin - 12%
7. Antonio Gibson - 13%

Guerendo is worthy of waiver priority or a big chunk of FAAB even for teams that aren't especially in need of an RB. Those in need of an RB would be wise to use all of their remaining FAAB (at least in leagues that allow $0 bids).

Bench Stashes

1. Blake Corum - 14%
2. Tyler Allgeier - 32%
3. Zach Charbonnet - 40% 
4. Ray Davis - 17%
5. Trey Benson - 23% 
6. Kimani Vidal - 16% 
7. Tank Bigsby - 44%
8. Raheem Mostert - 56%
9. Cam Akers - 19%
10. Roschon Johnson - 21% (concussion)
11. Jonathon Brooks - 48%
12. Khalil Herbert - 9%
13. Devin Singletary - 44%
14. Braelon Allen - 32%

Drop Candidates

1. Javonte Williams (shallow leagues) - 83%
2. Kareem Hunt (shallow leagues) - 77%
3. J.K. Dobbins / Christian McCaffrey / Jordan Mason / Austin Ekeler (injuries)
4. Alexander Mattison (ankle) - 45%
5. Tyjae Spears - 39%
6. Jeremy McNichols - 15%
7. Ezekiel Elliott - 13%