Backfield Breakdown: RB Usage Report & Week 15 Waivers Preview

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

Isaac Guerendo (foot sprain / day-to-day)

Bucky Irving (back / day-to-day)

Jonathon Brooks (ACL / season-ending) & Raheem Blackshear (chest / day-to-day)

Travis Homer (concussion / day-to-day)

49ers RB Isaac Guerendo thrived in his first NFL start, taking 71% of snaps and 17 of 18 RB opportunities (for 128 yards and two TDs) prior to suffering a foot sprain with about 11 minutes remaining in the game. Patrick Taylor then took 10 consecutive snaps, before Ke'Shawn Vaughn took over on the final drive deep in garbage time. The 49ers don't seem to think Guerendo's sprain is too serious, but it'll still be a challenge to play just four days later in a Thursday game against the Rams. We could see Taylor in a similar role to what Guerendo handled Sunday, albeit with much lesser athleticism.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving is also believed to have avoided a significant injury, but it won't be surprising if he misses a game or two, considering he never returned to Sunday's win over the Raiders after exiting early in the second quarter. Coach Todd Bowles described the rookie's injury as 'back tightness', which doesn't sound related to the hip issue that had Irving listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game. Raachaad White took 80% of snaps and 12 of 17 RB opportunities after Irving's exit, after getting eight of the 13 RB opportunities while Irving was active (in other words, Irving's usage was scaled back a bit due to the hip injury).

Missed Week 14

Kenneth Walker (calf/ankle / day-to-day)

Breece Hall (knee / day-to-day)

Raheem Mostert (hip / day-to-day)

Roschon Johnson (concussion / day-to-day)

Alexander Mattison (ankle / day-to-day) & Zamir White (IR - quad)

MarShawn Lloyd (ankle/appendix / eligible Week 16)

J.K. Dobbins (knee - IR / eligible Week 17)

Austin Ekeler (concussion - IR / eligible Week 18)

Christian McCaffrey (IR - knee) & Jordan Mason (IR - ankle)

Adam Schefter reported Sunday that Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker might only miss one game and return Week 15, but the Monday update from Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald sounded less promising. Macdonald said Walker is getting tests done on his calf injury, with the team expected to know more in the next few days. Macdonald also mentioned that Walker's ankle is no longer a problem, so at least the RB is down to one injury, although the Seahawks may be more inclined to slow play things after Zach Charbonnet's gem of a performance Sunday at Arizona.

Updates on Jets RB Breece Hall have been more sparse, but Schefter did report Saturday that the team has no intention of shutting him down, i.e., he'll play if/when he's healthy enough to. Braelon Allen and Isiah Davis split backfield work 50/50 in Sunday's loss at Miami, with Hall inactive for the first time this season.

Stock Report 📊

A lot of what you'll see here is building on my work from Box Score Breakdown, the weekly recap article with stat tables for every team that include snaps, routes, and target/air-yard shares, in addition to all the basic stats like carries, catches, yards and TDs. I also discuss role specifics and make note of various circumstances that could cause numbers to be misleading, so it's worth checking out if you're looking to go into even more detail on running backs before making waiver adds or lineup decisions for the upcoming week.

Note: Opps. = carries + targets    

All stats below are from Week 14 only unless otherwise specified       

Trending Up 📈

De'Von Achane - career-high 83% snaps, 77% routes, 21 of 28 RB opps, 69 yards + TD

Kyren Williams - 82% snaps, 67% routes, 31 of 39 RB opps, 97 total yards + 2 TDs

Chuba Hubbard - 97% snaps, 31 of 32 RB opps, 107 total yards + TD  (Brooks injury)

Tyrone Tracy - career-high 84% snaps, 26 of 28 RB opps, 83 total yards + TD

Zach Charbonnet - 79% snaps, 29 of 39 RB opps, 193 total yards + 2 TDs

James Conner - 75% snaps, 60% routes, 22 of 29 RB opps, 122 total yards + TD

Rachaad White - 75% snaps, 20 of 30 RB opps, 109 yards + 2 TDs  (Irving injury)

Rico Dowdle - career-high 77% snaps, 20 of 24 RB opps, 141 total yards

Isaiah Davis - 52% snaps, 16 of 32 RB opps, 67 total yards + TD

Sincere McCormick - 19 of 22 RB opps, 84% snaps pre-Q4, 89 total yards

Patrick Taylor - 10 consecutive snaps after Guerendo's injury

Tank Bigsby - 52% snaps, 20 of 28 RB opps, 62 total yards + TD

Kimani Vidal - 53% snaps, nine of 19 RB opps, 34 total yards

Jerome Ford - 54% snaps, 14 of 28 RB opps, 47 total yards

Kendre Miller - 26% snaps, 11 of 38 RB opps, 32 total yards + TD

Trending Down 📉

Alvin Kamara - 71% snaps, 22 of 38 RB opps (58%)

Travis Etienne - 48% snaps, eight of 28 RB opps

Ameer Abdullah - three touches for minus-two yards

Nick Chubb - 38% snaps, 12 of 28 RB opps, 48 total yards

Najee Harris - 42% snaps, 16 of 35 RB opps, 53 total yards + TD

Gus Edwards - 44% snaps, 10 of 19 RB opps, 36 total yards + TD

Kareem Hunt - 31% snaps, 28% routes, six of 27 RB opps, 29 total yards

Unsettled Backfields 🎲

These are the backfields that need to be monitored closely, where role changes could be imminent or we aren't sure about the team's depth chart moving forward. Backfield with a clear hierarchy/order won't be included unless there's a long-term injury to the starter and the backup situation is uncertain or confusing. 

Messy Backfields

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Las Vegas Raiders
3. Los Angeles Chargers
4. Kansas City Chiefs

Tank Bigsby took over as Jacksonville's lead runner Week 14, after oddly handling more of the passing-down work Week 13 (while Travis Etienne got most of the carries). Bigsby got 52% of snaps and 18 of the 22 RB carries this past Sunday, plus two of the six targets. His 19 touches netted just 62 yards, but he did score the go-ahead TD in the fourth quarter. Etienne is definitely better than Bigsby as a pass catcher and arguably also superior as a runner, but there's nonetheless a real chance that Bigsby gets far more touches over the final four weeks. Neither back inspires confidence as more than an RB3 or FLEX desperation play.

Sincere McCormick's role grew for a third straight week, peaking at a true-workhorse level this past Sunday with 18 of the 21 RB opportunities in a 28-13 loss to Tampa Bay. He even took 84% of snaps through three quarters, before giving way to Ameer Abdullah in the fourth quarter (83% snaps) when the Raiders were in pass-happy/hurry-up mode. McCormick's three straight games with at least 5.2 YPC lock him in as the lead runner for now, but it's possible he has a somewhat lesser role Week 15 if Alexander Mattison is back from an ankle injury (Zamir White is done for the season after being placed on IR).

Kimani Vidal didn't get much work in the first game after J.K. Dobbins' knee injury, but the rookie had a much larger role Sunday night at Kansas City, taking 53% of snaps and nine of the 19 RB opportunities. Gus Edwards had a 10-8 advantage in carries and punched in a short TD, playing 44% of snaps in what essentially was a 50-50 split (with Hassan Haskins poaching a few snaps but no touches). Neither Vidal nor Edwards can be started with confidence Week 15, and the Chargers partially seem to be adjusting to Dobbins' absence by running the ball less often.

Last but not least we have Isiah Pacheco, whose usage grew considerably in his second game back from injury (but still fell short of his pre-injury standard). He took 48% of snaps and 18 of 27 RB opportunities (67%) in the win over Los Angeles... The question now is whether his role stays at that level or continues to grow as he's further removed from his nasty leg/ankle injury.

On the Brink

1. Denver Broncos

Quiet for most of the season, Denver's Jaleel McLaughlin returned to relevance in Denver's final two games before a Week 14 bye, taking seven carries for 44 yards in Week 12 (29% snaps) and then 14 carries for 84 yards in Week 13 (36% snaps). Javonte Williams got more playing time than McLaughlin in both games, but Williams took only four carries for one yard in the last contest and is averaging only 5.5 carries for 14.8 yards over the past four weeks. Audric Estime was the lead runner in one game, and now we've seen McLaughlin serve as such when he had more early success than Williams/Estime. This looks like a true hot-hand/committee backfield, in which Williams is the safest bet for playing time but any of three RBs can get the most carries in a given game.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

If you're looking for a more comprehensive waivers article, RW's Kevin Payne has you covered. Here we're just taking a quick look at some RBs to target based on the work contained in this article and Monday's Box Score Breakdown. 

In order to qualify, the RB needs to be rostered in no more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Potential Short-Term Starters

1. Patrick Taylor -  4%
2. Sincere McCormick - 15%
3. Isaiah Davis - 11%
4. Braelon Allen - 58%
5. Tank Bigsby - 46%
6. Gus Edwards - 55%
7. Kimani Vidal - 13%
8. Sean Tucker - 2%
9. Jerome Ford - 41%
10. Justice Hill - 16%
11. Kendre Miller - 4%
12. Jaleel McLaughlin - 13%
13. Antonio Gibson - 11%

This has been one of the toughest seasons ever for finding useful RBs on waivers, but that's changing just in time for fantasy playoffs, with Taylor in particular looking like a plug-and-play starter (if Isaac Guerendo is inactive Thursday night). McCormick, Bigsby, Vidal and Edwards all have some appeal as low-end starters without needing injury help, while Davis and Allen could both thrive in a Week 15 matchup against Jacksonville (but only if Breece Hall is out again).

Bench Stashes

1. Tyler Allgeier - 30%
2. Blake Corum - 16%
3. Ray Davis - 22%
4. Trey Benson - 21%
5. Jaylen Wright - 5% 
6. Kenneth Gainwell - 6%
7. Tyjae Spears - 43%
8. Devin Singletary - 43%
9. Cam Akers - 16%

Drop Candidates

1. Javonte Williams - 75%
2. Kareem Hunt - 66%
3. J.K. Dobbins - 65% (knee)
4. Raheem Mostert - 48% (hip)
5. Ameer Abdullah - 24%