Backfield Breakdown: RB Usage Report & Week 18 Waivers Preview

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

James Conner (knee / day-to-day)

Chase Brown (ankle / day-to-day)

Aaron Jones (quad / day-to-day)

Jerome Ford (ankle / day-to-day)

Kendre Miller (concussion / day-to-day)

Tyjae Spears (head / week-to-week)

Isiah Pacheco (ribs / week-to-week)

Rasheen Ali (hip / week-to-week)

There were eight reported RB injuries Week 17, but none appears especially serious. 

• James Conner reportedly wanted to return to Arizona's game after tweaking his knee, but he was prevented from doing so. Michael Carter dominated RB touches in his absence.
• Chase Brown suffered his injury late in the fourth quarter and reportedly has a shot to play Week 18. Khalil Herbert took all the snaps after Brown's departure.
• Aaron Jones injured his quad in the third quarter and missed the fourth, but he was on the sideline with his helmet and is said to have a realistic shot at playing Week 18 against Detroit. Cam Akers took over as the lead back down the stretch in Sunday's win over Green Bay, with Ty Chandler also getting some playing time.
• Jerome Ford was injured in the second quarter and came back for exactly one snap in the second half before turning things over to D'Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong for good.
• Kendre Miller suffered a concussion in the second quarter, leaving the Saints to split snaps/touches between Jamaal Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
• Isiah Pacheco injured his ribs in the fourth quarter and missed the rest of the game. Coach Andy Reid said Pacheco should be fine for the playoffs, but the RB isn't likely to play Week 18.
• Apart from Pacheco, Tyjae Spears seems least likely to play Week 18, having just suffered his second concussion of the season. Tony Pollard (ankle/illness) reportedly has a chance to play, after missing Week 17.

Missed Week 17

Alvin Kamara (groin / day-to-day)

Trey Benson (ankle / day-to-day)

Justice Hill (head / day-to-day)

Gus Edwards (ankle / week-to-week)

Tyler Badie (IR - back / day-to-day)

MarShawn Lloyd (IR - appendix / eligible since Week 16)

Austin Ekeler (concussion - IR / eligible Week 18)

David Montgomery (MCL / out until playoffs at least)

Kenneth Walker (IR - ankle)

Chuba Hubbard (IR - calf)

Stock Report 📊

A lot of what you'll see here is building on my work from Box Score Breakdown, the weekly recap article with stat tables for every team that include snaps, routes, and target/air-yard shares, in addition to all the basic stats like carries, catches, yards and TDs. I also discuss role specifics and make note of various circumstances that could cause numbers to be misleading, so it's worth checking out if you're looking to go into even more detail on running backs before making waiver adds or lineup decisions for the upcoming week.

Note: Opps. = carries + targets    

All stats below are from Week 16 only unless otherwise specified      

Trending Up 📈

Jonathan Taylor - 4th straight game with 22+ carries, 96+ yards  /  5 TDs past 2 weeks

Bucky Irving - 71% snaps, 18 of 22 RB opps pre-halftime, 190 total yards

J.K. Dobbins - 61% snaps + 20 of 28 RB opportunities with the starters (83 yards + TD)

Tyrone Tracy - 66% snaps, 48% routes, 23 of 28 RB opps, 73 total yards

Ameer Abdullah - 62% snaps, 56% routes, 24 of 37 RB opps before final minutes

Khalil Herbert - 100% snaps after Brown's injury, with four carries for 23 yards

Michael Carter - 97% snaps, 14 of 15 RB opps after Conner's exit (81 total yards)

Cam Akers - 53% snaps, 3 of 8 RB opps (for 10 yards) after Jones' injury 

Ty Chandler - 42% snaps, 5 of 8 RB opps (for 7 yards) after Jones' injury 

Pierre Strong - 44% snaps, eight opps for 39 yards after Ford's injury

D'Onta Foreman - 58% snaps, 12 opps for 35 yards after Ford's injury

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 45% snaps, 6 opps for 13 yards after Miller injury

Jamaal Williams - 53% snaps, 3 opps for 24 yards after Miller injury

Kenny McIntosh - 24% snaps, 7 of 25 RB opportunities (7-46-0 rushing)

Hassan Haskins / Julius Chestnut - last men standing if Spears and Pollard both out

Trending Down 📉

Joe Mixon - 51% snaps pre-Q4  /  3 straight games with <75 total yards and no TD

Rachaad White - 36% snaps, seven opps for 34 yards (four opps before Q4) 

Rhamondre Stevenson - 57% snaps with starters, but just 3 of 9 RB opps

Javonte Williams - 37% snaps, 2 of 24 RB opportunities

Alexander Mattison - 31% snaps, 13 of 37 RB opps before final minutes

Blake Corum - 6% snaps, 3 of 22 RB opps, -4 yards on three carries

Kimani Vidal - 7% snaps and 3 touches before starters were pulled

Unsettled Backfields 🎲

I'll do this part differently than usual for Week 18. Instead of discussing confusing/inconsistent committees like the ones in Las Vegas and Jacksonville, we'll take a quick look at backup RBs who may take on extra playing time Week 18 for non-injury reasons.

• Bills RB James Cook may play but probably won't stay in for long if he does. Rookie Ray Davis could be the centerpiece for Buffalo's second-string offense, with Ty Johnson presumably also getting some work against a bad Patriots defense. Note that the Bills are slight favorites even though Sean McDermott already said Josh Allen won't play much.
• Texans RB Dameon Pierce should dominate carries if Joe Mixon is held out or removed early, although Dare Ogunbowale likely would still take a lot of the passing-down snaps.
• Eagles RBs Kenneth Gainwell, Will Shipley and Tyrion Davis-Price would all be candidates for carries if Saquon Barkley is rested (instead of trying for the rushing record), making it tough to predict the workload split. The third/fourth-stringers might well more work than Gainwell, who doesn't lack for NFL experience.
• Chiefs RB Carson Steele may be the team's lead runner Week 18, but he's not exactly spry and likely would be running behind some backup linemen against a tough, motivated Denver defense. And Samaje Perine could also play a good amount.
• The Rams still have seeding to play for (3 vs. 4), but Sean McVay has relished opportunities to rest starters in the past and reduce injury risk, so it's possible Blake Corum replaces Kyren Williams as the lead back (or at least takes more of the work than usual).
• The Commanders still have seeding to play for (6 vs. 7), but only if the Bears are within striking distance of the Packers. If Green Bay is destroying Chicago, the Commanders could give Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols more work than Brian Robinson in the second half.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

If you're looking for a more comprehensive waivers article, RW's Kevin Payne has you covered. Here we're just taking a quick look at some RBs to target based on the work contained in this article and Monday's Box Score Breakdown. 

In order to qualify, the RB needs to be rostered in no more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Potential Short-Term Starters

1. Ameer Abdullah - 35%  
2. Ray Davis - 18% 
3. Michael Carter - 3% 
4. Khalil Herbert - 7%
5. Dameon Pierce - 2%
6. Blake Corum - 14% 
7. Cam Akers - 14%
8. Raheem Blackshear - 15%
9. Carson Steele - 2%
10. Hassan Haskins - 0%
11. Ty Johnson - 4%
12. Jaleel McLaughlin - 14% 
13. Will Shipley - 0% 
14. Pierre Strong - 0%
15. Jamaal Williams - 0%
16. Kenneth Gainwell - 6%
17. Ty Chandler - 7%
18. D'Onta Foreman - 0%
19. Chris Rodriguez - 1%
20. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 0%

Abdullah is perhaps the safest option here, with his role not depending on an unresolved injury or a coach deciding to rest starters. He scored 17-20 PPR points in each of the past three games, with 137 receiving yards and two TDs in that span. There's a bit of flukiness to his production, but the RBs in Vegas have seen targets all year, and Abdullah isn't as bad as the others.

Davis is my favorite target among the RBs likely to benefit from coaches resting starters. He's a good player, and Buffalo's backup O-linemen may not be any worse than New England's starters on the D-line.