Beating the Book: 49ers Rebound, Packers Win Ugly + Full NFL Week 7 ATS Picks and Predictions

Welcome to the Week 7 edition of Beating the Book!

Last week, we battled our way to an 8-7 mark, including hitting our best bet on the Dolphins despite an early 14-0 deficit. Looking to carry some positive momentum into Week 7, we're presented with an abbreviated slate with six teams on bye.

As the numbers currently stand, it projects to be another low-scoring week across the NFL. Five games feature a total of 4.0 or lower, while only two games (MIA-PHI and LAC-KC) sit north of 45.0. 

Week 6 was a historically bad week for offenses, as unders finished 12-2-1 with an astonishing 12 of 15 games failing to top 40 points.

The lack of scoring has played into some tight spreads, and that's again the case in Week 7. The Bills (-9.0 at NE) are the biggest favorite on the board, and the Seahawks (-7.5 vs. ARZ) are the only other team favored by more than a touchdown. Meanwhile, nine of 13 games are holding a spread of 3.0 or fewer, as of Wednesday afternoon.

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 8-7 ATS; 11-4 SU; best bet won (MIA -13.5)

On the season: 42-48-3 ATS, 56-37 SU; 4-2 best bet

Best calls of Week 6:

• Despite getting blown out by Detroit last week, the Panthers demonstrated some level of friskiness in the second half, but I expect Tua and the Dolphins to get back on track against a defense that allowed 37 points to Seattle and 42 to Detroit.
• While the Raiders are typically an opponent you want to see on the schedule, I'm not sure what we've witnessed from Mac Jones and Co. is salvageable. I don't feel good about this number by any means, but I'll take the home team. The under 41.5 is the real play.

Worst calls of Week 6:

• At some point, the 49ers probably get tripped up, but they're so deep with elite weapons on both sides that it's tough to pinpoint when that will happen. Even coming off of an emotional blowout, and with the Browns off a bye, I can't shy away from the Niners here.
• I know I took the Jags in our weekly Staff Picks piece, but with another day to think on it, I'm reversing course. Ever so carefully, we'll trust the Jags' running game to travel back to the United States, but with this number sitting at 4.0 I like Indy to conjure up some Minshew Magic and cover.

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Thursday Night Football

Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-1.0)

We begin with the first of THREE (3) primetime games for the Jaguars this season. Unfathomable stuff. Jacksonville gets not only a Monday Night Football date with the Bengals later this season, but also a Sunday Night Football matchup against the Ravens two weeks after. We've truly emerged from the darkest days of Jags football.

Rewinding to the present, the Jags have racked up three straight wins over the Falcons, Bills and Colts and are starting to round into form as the best team in the AFC South. With Trevor Lawrence (knee) seemingly trending in the right direction, this line has moved from Saints -3.0 down to Saints -1.0 – though it did sit at Jags -1.0 on Sunday evening.

Either way, this is basically a "pick the winner" game, and while I do see the Jags as the better team, we need to keep in mind that this is a difficult spot for Jacksonville, which did not take a bye after two weeks in London. That means this is the Jags' fourth game in 19 days, with only one of those coming at home.

The Saints haven't shown much to inspire faith of late, but they remain one of the best defenses in the league, ranking fifth in EPA against the run and sixth against the pass. With the Jags unlikely to do much on the ground, my favorite play is the U40.0 points. If Jacksonville can force a turnover or two – the Jags lead the NFL in takeaways – they can get a win on the road, but my gut says this is the week that their recent schedule gauntlet gets the best of them.

I'm rolling with the Saints to bounce back and win (another) very ugly game at home.

The pick: Saints 20 – Jaguars 17

Sunday Early Games

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3.0)

I'll be the first to tell you I was very skeptical that the Lions could build on last year's momentum and take another step toward joining the elites of the NFC. But one-third of the way through the schedule, I'm forced to eat crow: This is a very good team and a very well-coached team.

Last week at Tampa Bay was an obvious trip-up spot for the Lions, and while they mustered only 20 points, the defense stepped up and barely allowed the Buccaneers to enter Detroit territory. Tampa finished with just 251 total yards and converted only 2-of-12 third downs on the day. Detroit is now up to eighth in defensive EPA and is allowing only 4.7 yards per play.

The numbers say Baltimore's defense has been even better, but we have to consider the quality of opponents the Ravens have faced. As The Action Network astutely noted, Baltimore has faced C.J. Stroud, Kenny Pickett, a banged-up Joe Burrow, Gardner Minshew, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the deadly Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis combo.

Meanwhile, the Ravens' offense continues to struggle to generate big plays and, more concerningly, finish off drives. After an ugly drop-fest in Week 5, the Ravens handled business in London but had to settle for six field goals – all from 41 yards or shorter – in last week's win over Tennessee. You can get away with that against the Titans, but the Ravens need to find a way to get pass-catchers not named Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews more involved.

This should be a very close game, and could be another difficult spot for the Lions on the road, but I'm done betting against this team. Lions win outright and move to 16-5 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog.

The pick: Lions 23 – Ravens 19

Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears (+3.0)

Here we go again with another low total. The 37.5 O/U is the lowest of the week, and for good reason. As of publication, the expectation is that neither Jimmy Garoppolo nor Justin Fields will be available Sunday. The Raiders haven't closed the door on Jimmy G returning, but chances are it'll be either Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell under center for Vegas. Meanwhile, we're starting down a Tyson Bagent start for the Bears, with Nathan Peterman as the backup.

We know this game is in Chicago, and we know Vegas is not a good team (... right?), but I still like this spot for the Raiders. Quarterback aside, they have the two best players in this game (Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams), and I have more faith in the Hoyer/O'Connell tandem than I do Bagent.

If the Bears can run the ball on one of the NFL's worst rush defenses, this could get interesting. But I'm siding with Vegas to hold on for a similarly ugly win to last week's victory over New England.

The pick: Raiders 17 – Bears 13

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+2.0)

We're still very much in wait-and-see territory with Deshaun Watson, who did not practice Wednesday. There seems to be some degree of optimism that he could return this week, but if not it'll be back to PJ Walker. Frankly, I'm not really concerned about the Browns' QB situation. Obviously, we'd prefer that Watson plays, but if that's the case he'll likely be less than 100 percent. 

To me, this game comes down to the Cleveland defense. If the Browns can show up like they did last week against the 49ers, they should have their way with Minshew, who threw three picks and lost a fumble last week in Jacksonville. Coming into the week, the Browns are No. 1 in the NFL in QB hit rate and top-five in pressure rate. They're also tops in the NFL in yards per play, score percentage and first downs allowed.

While I expect Minshew to look better inside the Joseph Addai Dome, we're trusting the Browns' defense to shut down the Colts' ground game and force Minshew to take more shots than he'd probably like.

The pick: Browns 20 – Colts 13

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+9.0)

We bet against the Patriots last week and, what do you know, it paid off. Mac Jones taking a late safety may have saved us, but we'll take any breaks we can get at this point. Yet again, the Patriots showed very few signs of life in Vegas, and they'll now face a Bills team eager to flush away last week's forgettable showing against a bad Giants team.

We already saw Buffalo in a similar spot in Week 2 against Vegas, when they cruised to a 38-10 victory while forcing three turnovers and allowing just 240 total yards. This game is in Foxboro, but whatever mystique the Patriots carried for the last two decades is fully out the window. The Saints shutting out the Pats at home two weeks ago was the final nail in that coffin.

If there's a Nick Whalen Don't Overthink It game on the slate this week, this is the one. Bills win and cover to officially send New England into the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.

The pick: Bills 27 – Patriots 10

Washington Commanders at New York Giants (+2.0)

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I think the Commanders are right there with the Texans in terms of teams that have killed us most this season. Just when I talk myself into the Commanders as a fun, frisky team, they give up 40 points to the Bears at home. A week later, they bounce back and hang on for a win at Atlanta.

I want to be careful not to overreact to that victory, as the Falcons probably win that game with anyone but Desmond Ridder at quarterback. But we also need to approach the Giants with caution. Sure, they came within a hard of toppling the Bills, but this is still the NFL's 31st-ranked offense that could again be without Daniel Jones.

Washington's vaunted defensive line has been a bit of a letdown thus far, but the Giants' offensive line is far and away the worst unit in the league. Ranking dead-last in both pass blocking and run blocking at PFF is not easy to do. 

Sam Howell will likely make a few key mistakes, but I like Washington to generate pressure and avoid giving up big plays to a New York passing game that's averaging just 166.7 yards per game (31st in the NFL) and 5.8 yards per attempt (30th).

The pick: Commanders 24 – Giants 18

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

After leading a game-winning drive against Houston two weeks ago, the real Desmond Ridder was back in full force in Week 6. He did cross the 300-yard threshold for the second straight game, but Ridder's decision making continues to be an abject disaster – particularly in the red zone.

We think of Atlanta as one of the league's better running teams, but the Falcons rank in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing EPA and have averaged just 93 rushing yards per game since racking up 211 yards on the Packers in Week 2. Tampa Bay is an even worse running team, but at least they know it. And on the other side of the ball, the Bucs are among the best in the league at stopping the run.

Under the expectation that Atlanta will again struggle to establish a ground game, I simply cannot put my fate in the hands of Desmond Ridder. Not again.

The pick: Buccaneers 23 – Falcons 20

Sunday Afternoon Games

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.0)

On to the afternoon slate, which provides us with – if nothing else – four games with totals all sitting at 43.0 or higher. A minor miracle during these difficult times.

The Steelers are coming off of a bye, having gone into the off week with an exceptionally ugly victory over the Ravens. With that win, Pittsburgh is now 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 games as a dog. The Steelers find themselves in that position again this week, and while betting against Mike Tomlin as an underdog is rarely the play, I find myself leaning toward the Rams here.

Record aside – I refuse to acknowledge that they're 3-2 – the Steelers' offense has been an abject disaster. Pittsburgh needed two defensive TDs to beat the Browns and somewhere between 7 and 10 drops by the Ravens to hang on for that Week 5 victory. In theory, the Steelers' defense should keep them in it, but they've been blown out 60 to 13 combined by the two competent passing offenses (San Francisco and Houston) they've faced thus far.

There's zero doubt in my mind that this ends up being a close game decided by some weird plays late, but I'll side with Matthew Stafford over Kenny Pickett. 

The pick: Rams 23 – Steelers 18

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8.0)

Last week, the Seahawks were one of my (mild) upset picks, and they found a way to lose despite winning just about every statistical category possible. Seattle racked up 167 more yards of offense, ran 17 more plays, averaged 1.4 yards per play, converted more third downs and had nine more first downs than the Bengals.

And yet, they managed to score 13 points thanks to a comedy of errors by Geno Smith in the second half. Not only did Smith toss two picks in Cincy territory (one at the 3-yard-line), but he also failed to turn a 1st and goal from the 7 and a 1st and 10 from the 11-yard-line into points on Seattle's final two drives. On a more positive note, Smith did set the NFL single-game record for longest time holding onto the ball.

Alright, alright. That's enough. All of this is to say: Seattle probably wins that game 8 out of 10 times, and while last week felt like a setback, I can't quit this Seahawks team. Arizona continues to be a frisky opponent on a weekly basis, but the cracks in the foundation – particularly on defense – are starting to show. Arizona is down to 31st in defensive EPA (thank you, Broncos), 32nd in pressure rate, and 27th in third down conversion rate.

I like this as a get-right spot for Smith and the Seattle offense. 

The pick: Seahawks 30 – Cardinals 20

Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (+1.0)

Goodness gracious. Green Bay is firmly in the I don't know what's going to happen zone after back-to-back stinkers against the Lions and Raiders prior to their Week 6 bye. On the other side, Denver continues to solidify itself as the laughing stock of the NFL, even if they've finally psychologically recovered from The Beatdown in Week 2.

With how inept the Packers' offense has looked of late, it says a lot that they're giving the Broncos a point in Denver. One reason for that may be the (hopeful) return of Aaron Jones, who saw limited action against Detroit before missing the Vegas game altogether. Jones was limited at practice Wednesday but seems to be trending in a positive direction.

If Jones plays, I'll be on the Packers here – especially with the extra week to prep. Jordan Love's sharp regression over the last few games is concerning, but Jones makes a massive difference for this offense – probably more than he should.

The pick: Packers 22 – Broncos 20

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

Kansas City has gotten the best of its division rival in the Mahomes-Herbert era, but these teams have played one-score games in five of their last six meetings, including a pair of three-point Chiefs victories a season ago. 

Justin Herbert will be looking to bounce back after missing some key throws Monday night against Dallas, and the game will likely be on his arm with the Chargers' running game failing to reach 65 yards in three of their last four games. The Chiefs have one of the better defenses in the league, though they have been more vulnerable on the ground than through the air.

On the other side of the ball, we're still waiting on the KC offense to fully awaken. The Chargers are 28th in EPA against the pass, so this could be the week Mahomes truly finds his groove with anyone not named Travis Kelce.

Either way, we should expect a close game in-division. Chiefs get the win at home with the significant rest advantage, but the Chargers rally for a late cover.

The pick: Chiefs 27 – Chargers 24

Sunday Night Football

Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.0)

So far, we've seen the Dolphins' offense roll through five opponents but struggle in a marquee game at Buffalo in Week 4. This is a similar spot against another elite team on the road. Obviously, Miami will be looking for a statement win to prove it belongs in the top tier of the Super Bowl conversation. On the other side, Philly is looking to bounce back from one of its worst losses in recent history.

Miami will provide an extremely difficult test for the Philly defense, but the Eagles have more than held their own against the run this season, and they should be able to generate consistent pressure on Tua Tagovailoa. Keep an eye on the status of both Jalen Carter and Lane Johnson. If Carter, in particular, misses another game, that could be trouble for Philly. But assuming he's back, I like the Eagles to get back to running the ball, control the clock and force Tagovailoa to beat them through the air.

The pick: Eagles 31 – Dolphins 28

Monday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (+6.5)

We're still waiting on injury updates on Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel, but the good news is that all three appear to have avoided serious injuries. Given that this is the Monday night game, we may not get a definitive update until much later in the week.

With that in mind, the 49ers become a difficult evaluation, but this is still the vastly more talented team. Of course, Brock Purdy's performance in Cleveland was borderline-alarming, but he lost three All-Pros mid-game, battled wind and rain and went up against what may be the league's best defense. I'm not giving him a pass, but I'm kinda giving him a pass.

Playing in the dome against a reeling Vikings team should be a nice reprieve for Purdy and an opportunity to settle back in. If the Niners' injury report ends up worse than expected, this could get interesting. But I'm not a believer in this Minnesota team without Justin Jefferson. While they got the win last week in Chicago, the Vikings went 2-of-13 on third downs and had just 220 yards of total offense.

The pick: 49ers 30 – Vikings 21