This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Can I switch back to overall record only? Last week I went 9-6-1 (I was 9-3-1 before the Sunday and Monday night disasters), but 2-2-1 on my best bets. This week, the lines are tougher as we're not dealing with pure offseason speculation, but also a small, one-week sample of data. The mixing of those two elements isn't always easy.
The games that jump out at me are the Browns and Chargers at home against the Saints and Seahawks, two good teams that have pronounced home/road splits. I also like the Bengals hosting the Falcons.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Steelers +2.5 at Ravens
These games are almost always close, so usually I'd take the points, but the Ravens are at home and laying less than three. Back Baltimore.
Ravens 24 - 21
EARLY GAMES
Lions +3 at Panthers
I loved Carolina at -2.5, but the line's moved up to three, so I like them a little less. Matt Stafford looked great against the Giants at home, but doing it against the Panthers defense on the road is another degree of difficulty. Plus, Cam Newton should be back. Take the Panthers.
Panthers 27 - 23
Dolphins -1 at Bills
The Dolphins were awfully impressive in the second half against New England, particularly their running game and pass rush, and they might be a legitimate team this year, especially if Ryan Tannehill takes the next step. But the value has to be with the Bills who'd be laying three if this game were played
Can I switch back to overall record only? Last week I went 9-6-1 (I was 9-3-1 before the Sunday and Monday night disasters), but 2-2-1 on my best bets. This week, the lines are tougher as we're not dealing with pure offseason speculation, but also a small, one-week sample of data. The mixing of those two elements isn't always easy.
The games that jump out at me are the Browns and Chargers at home against the Saints and Seahawks, two good teams that have pronounced home/road splits. I also like the Bengals hosting the Falcons.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Steelers +2.5 at Ravens
These games are almost always close, so usually I'd take the points, but the Ravens are at home and laying less than three. Back Baltimore.
Ravens 24 - 21
EARLY GAMES
Lions +3 at Panthers
I loved Carolina at -2.5, but the line's moved up to three, so I like them a little less. Matt Stafford looked great against the Giants at home, but doing it against the Panthers defense on the road is another degree of difficulty. Plus, Cam Newton should be back. Take the Panthers.
Panthers 27 - 23
Dolphins -1 at Bills
The Dolphins were awfully impressive in the second half against New England, particularly their running game and pass rush, and they might be a legitimate team this year, especially if Ryan Tannehill takes the next step. But the value has to be with the Bills who'd be laying three if this game were played in Week 1. Back Buffalo.
Bills 23 - 20
Jaguars +6 at Redskins
The Jaguars played great for a half before collapsing in Philadelphia, and I'm not sure I can lay six with the Redskins against anyone. Back Jacksonville.
Redskins 24 - 19
Cowboys +3.5 at Titans
I could go either way here. The Cowboys are probably the value after an ugly Week 1, but they can collapse at any point, and one of these days it'll be for good. Still, I'll hold my nose and buy Dallas low. Back the Cowboys.
Cowboys 27 - 20
Cardinals -2 at Giants
As a Giants fan I hope I'm wrong about this and that the offense was still getting up to speed on Ben McAdoo's new system, but given how bad it's been for the last year and a half, I'm not optimistic. The Cardinals looked every bit as stout on defense as last year, and they have plenty of offensive weapons. Back the Cardinals.
Cardinals 24 - 17
Patriots -3 at Vikings
I think the value here has to be on the Vikings, though I wonder whether Bill Belichick knows too much about Matt Cassel. Back Minnesota.
Patriots 24 - 23
Saints -6.5 at Browns
Not only did the Browns dominate the Steelers in the second half, but they might have Josh Gordon back this week and draw a Saints team that's nowhere near as good on the road. Back Cleveland.
Browns 27 - 24
Falcons +5 at Bengals
The Bengals were much tougher at home last year, and the Falcons, while good offensively, have a bad defense and were lucky to win at home against a Saints team that doesn't travel well. Back Cincy.
Bengals 31 - 20
LATE GAMES
Rams +5.5 at Buccaneers
The Rams looked awful in Week 1, but even without Chris Long, they can still rush the passer, and this is a big number for a mediocre team like Tampa to lay. Back St. Louis.
Buccaneers 20 - 17
Seahawks -6 at Chargers
As great as the Seahawks are, they're especially great at home, and merely good on the road. Merely good doesn't cut it laying six points against the Chargers in their building. Back San Diego.
Seahawks 21 - 17
Texans -3 at Raiders
This is a big number for a 2-14 team to lay on the road, but it's against the Raiders, and as bad as their record was, Houston's advanced metrics showed a better team. Lay the points.
Texans 24 - 13
Jets +8.5 at Packers
My instinct is to buy the Packers here off the Seattle loss, even though the Jets are probably league average, and Green Bay's defense isn't especially good. Back the Packers.
Packers 30 - 17
Chiefs +13 at Broncos
The Chiefs looked terrible last week, and Denver usually isn't the place to get well, but we expect Jamaal Charles to get heavily involved, and I like getting double-digit points from a division rival. Back Kansas City.
Broncos 33 - 23
SUNDAY NIGHT
Bears +7 at 49ers
The Bears were overrated heading into last week, but now they're more properly priced. Alshon Jeffery's status concerns me, but I think the Bears will move the ball and stay in this one. Back Chicago.
49ers 24 - 20
MONDAY NIGHT
Eagles +3 at Colts
This is the right line between two roughly-equal teams. I like the coaching staff better in Philly, so I'll take the points. Back the Eagles.
Eagles 31- 30
I went 9-6-1 in Week 1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.
