This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Week 17 wasn't great - 7-9 ATS, 2-3 in the SuperContest, and I lost my best bet, dropping my record on those to 12-4-1. Honestly, the best bet mark was the one I cared about most because it was the only good thing I had going. I'm not sweating it too much though. I intended to pick the teams as I saw fit, and aside from a few episodes of cowardice and a few of slips into outright squaredom, I largely did just that.
This week, I especially like the Falcons in Los Angeles and the Jaguars at home against the Bills. The other ones are closer calls.
SATURDAY GAMES
Titans +8.5 at Chiefs
I was leaning Chiefs originally here, but this is a big line for a squad that's just okay against even a weak playoff team. The Titans played well enough to win last week, and they slugged it out with the Rams two week ago. It's hardly a ringing endorsement, but I think the line should be closer to seven. Take the points.
Chiefs 27 - 20
Falcons +6.5 at Rams
The Falcons have underperformed their metrics most of the year, but they shrugged off the worst Super Bowl collapse in history and made it back to the postseason. The Rams are a good team, but this line should be closer to three than seven. Take the Falcons.
Falcons 27 - 24
SUNDAY GAMES
Bills +8.5 at Jaguars
The Bills are a nice story, but with LeSean
Week 17 wasn't great - 7-9 ATS, 2-3 in the SuperContest, and I lost my best bet, dropping my record on those to 12-4-1. Honestly, the best bet mark was the one I cared about most because it was the only good thing I had going. I'm not sweating it too much though. I intended to pick the teams as I saw fit, and aside from a few episodes of cowardice and a few of slips into outright squaredom, I largely did just that.
This week, I especially like the Falcons in Los Angeles and the Jaguars at home against the Bills. The other ones are closer calls.
SATURDAY GAMES
Titans +8.5 at Chiefs
I was leaning Chiefs originally here, but this is a big line for a squad that's just okay against even a weak playoff team. The Titans played well enough to win last week, and they slugged it out with the Rams two week ago. It's hardly a ringing endorsement, but I think the line should be closer to seven. Take the points.
Chiefs 27 - 20
Falcons +6.5 at Rams
The Falcons have underperformed their metrics most of the year, but they shrugged off the worst Super Bowl collapse in history and made it back to the postseason. The Rams are a good team, but this line should be closer to three than seven. Take the Falcons.
Falcons 27 - 24
SUNDAY GAMES
Bills +8.5 at Jaguars
The Bills are a nice story, but with LeSean McCoy banged up and having to travel and play an elite defense, I think it ends with a thud. Lay the wood here as the Jaguars roll.
Jaguars 31 - 9
Panthers +6.5 at Saints
The Saints are a well balanced team, and a threat to win the Super Bowl. But the Panthers are a bit of a wild card with a QB whose performance swings wildly from elite to terrible and a solid defense. Moreover, this is the third time these teams have played, and familiarity breeds contempt, or - in NFL terms - ugly slugfests. I'll take the points here.
Saints 24 - 20
I went 7-9 against the spread in Week 17 to put me at 117-125-14 on the season. I went 2-3 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 43-39-3 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2016 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.
