This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I felt pretty good about last week's games, but went 7-6-1 by conventional scoring. That included a bad beat on the Browns who are apparently incapable of a dignified four and out to lose a game, instead insisting on a fumble-six. That's okay, as I said last week, it's not my problem.
This week I particularly like the Lions, Bills and Colts and feel good about the early Sunday games generally. The afternoon games were pretty much coin flips.
THANKSGIVING DAY
Vikings -3 at Lions
The Vikings are the better team, but I usually like the home team off a short week, and Matthew Stafford has played much better of late. Take the points.
Lions 24 - 23
Chargers -1 at Cowboys
My instinct is to take the Chargers here, even though they're traveling. The Cowboys simply can't stretch the field, and they have no offensive identity right now. The Chargers defense is quietly good, and as long as they don't gift the game away, I expect them to prevail.
Chargers 24 - 19
THURSDAY NIGHT
Giants +7 at Redskins
The Redskins are so banged up, and I expect the Giants defense will keep this game close enough. Take the points.
Redskins 23 - 17
EARLY GAMES
Browns +8.5 at Bengals
I've taken bad beats on the Browns the last two weeks, and while normally I'd triple down out of stubbornness, I'll go the other way here. The Bengals defense is good, and I think Andy Dalton opens this
I felt pretty good about last week's games, but went 7-6-1 by conventional scoring. That included a bad beat on the Browns who are apparently incapable of a dignified four and out to lose a game, instead insisting on a fumble-six. That's okay, as I said last week, it's not my problem.
This week I particularly like the Lions, Bills and Colts and feel good about the early Sunday games generally. The afternoon games were pretty much coin flips.
THANKSGIVING DAY
Vikings -3 at Lions
The Vikings are the better team, but I usually like the home team off a short week, and Matthew Stafford has played much better of late. Take the points.
Lions 24 - 23
Chargers -1 at Cowboys
My instinct is to take the Chargers here, even though they're traveling. The Cowboys simply can't stretch the field, and they have no offensive identity right now. The Chargers defense is quietly good, and as long as they don't gift the game away, I expect them to prevail.
Chargers 24 - 19
THURSDAY NIGHT
Giants +7 at Redskins
The Redskins are so banged up, and I expect the Giants defense will keep this game close enough. Take the points.
Redskins 23 - 17
EARLY GAMES
Browns +8.5 at Bengals
I've taken bad beats on the Browns the last two weeks, and while normally I'd triple down out of stubbornness, I'll go the other way here. The Bengals defense is good, and I think Andy Dalton opens this one up. Lay the wood.
Bengals 24 - 13
Bears +13.5 at Eagles
The Eagles seem to be for real, but the Bears will run the ball and play defense, keeping this one close enough. Take the points.
Eagles 27 - 16
Dolphins +16.5 at Patriots
Honestly, the Patriots could probably name their score, but familiarity, a massive line and a desperate Dolphins team are just enough for me. Take the points.
Patriots 33 - 17
Bills +10 at Chiefs
There's no way Tyrod Taylor's not starting unless Sean McDermott wants a full-scale mutiny, in which case this line is absurd. Take the Bills.
Chiefs 23 - 20
Buccaneers +9.5 at Falcons
The Falcons are playing better of late, and the Bucs are awful, but this is just enough points to sway me. Take Tampa.
Falcons 26 - 17
Panthers -4.5 at Jets
I like the Panthers defense, and Cam Newton plays well against mediocre competition. Lay the wood here.
Panthers 27 - 17
Titans -3.5 at Colts
The Titans are probably better, but three and a half on the road is too much. Jacoby Brissett looks like an NFL starter, and Tennessee's pass defense isn't good. Take the points.
Titans 24 - 23
LATE GAMES
Seahawks -7 at 49ers
I hate this game. I'd like to buy the Seahawks low, but they're not that good, and yet they're still laying major wood on the road. In the end, I think Russell Wilson will make enough plays. Take Seattle.
Seahawks 31 - 23
Saints +2.5 at Rams
I expect the Saints offense to grind this one out, and while the Rams might keep pace for awhile, they're more reliant on the passing game and more likely to make a mistake. Take the points.
Saints 24 - 20
Jaguars -4.5 at Cardinals
The Cardinals aren't good, but they're getting points at home against a Jaguars team that would need to score on defense to cover this number. Maybe they do, but I won't bet on it. Take the points.
Jaguars 17 - 16
Broncos +5 at Raiders
These are two below-average teams, but I'm not sure why this line is five instead of three. Paxton Lynch probably isn't an upgrade, but it's hard to see him as a massive downgrade, either. Take the Broncos.
Raiders 20 - 19
SUNDAY NIGHT
Packers +14 at Steelers
This line is too big, and yet I'll lay the points. The Steelers are much tougher at home, Ben Roethlisberger finally had a good game and their defense is good. Expect them to pull away late.
Steelers 35 - 13
MONDAY NIGHT
Texans +7 at Ravens
This is a lot of points for the Ravens offense, but their defense is so good, and they're especially tough at home. Lay the wood.
Ravens 17 - 6
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I went 7-6-1 against the spread in Week 10 to put me at 76-78-6 on the season. I went 2-3 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 26-28-1 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.
