This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 8-7-1 last week, and I felt okay about it. I lost my two inital leans the Browns (bad beat) and the Raiders (terrible pick), but I made the Dolphins my best bet, and they won outright, while getting 11 points.
This week, I especially like the Redskins, 49ers and Cowboys.
BTW - if you enjoy this article, check out our podcast wherein we handicap the games after talking about random things for ~20 minutes. (New ones go up Thursday morning.) I'm trying to grow the podcast because it's the one place we can truly do our own thing, and we own the means of distribution.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Broncos -2.5 at Colts
The Colts are arguably the worst team in the league. But give me the home team on the short week. Back Indy.
Broncos 17 - 16
SATURDAY
Bears +5.5 at Lions
Recency bias is a powerful thing, but I want to take the Bears here, so that's what I'm doing.
Lions 23 - 20
Chargers -1 at Chiefs
The Chargers are so much better defensively, so the only question is whether they implode as they have so many times, especially in a tough venue where weather is a factor. It could happen, but I'll still taking them, eyes open.
Chargers 27 - 23
EARLY GAMES
Eagles -7.5 at Giants
Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, the Nutless Monkey, who cares? By playing Eli Manning at the expense of player development the Giants have now shown
I went 8-7-1 last week, and I felt okay about it. I lost my two inital leans the Browns (bad beat) and the Raiders (terrible pick), but I made the Dolphins my best bet, and they won outright, while getting 11 points.
This week, I especially like the Redskins, 49ers and Cowboys.
BTW - if you enjoy this article, check out our podcast wherein we handicap the games after talking about random things for ~20 minutes. (New ones go up Thursday morning.) I'm trying to grow the podcast because it's the one place we can truly do our own thing, and we own the means of distribution.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Broncos -2.5 at Colts
The Colts are arguably the worst team in the league. But give me the home team on the short week. Back Indy.
Broncos 17 - 16
SATURDAY
Bears +5.5 at Lions
Recency bias is a powerful thing, but I want to take the Bears here, so that's what I'm doing.
Lions 23 - 20
Chargers -1 at Chiefs
The Chargers are so much better defensively, so the only question is whether they implode as they have so many times, especially in a tough venue where weather is a factor. It could happen, but I'll still taking them, eyes open.
Chargers 27 - 23
EARLY GAMES
Eagles -7.5 at Giants
Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, the Nutless Monkey, who cares? By playing Eli Manning at the expense of player development the Giants have now shown themselves to be the NFL's version of a banana republic. Lay the wood.
Eagles 31 - 13
Packers +4.5 at Panthers
There was a six point line, a six and a half, a four and a half and a three on the site we use. Usually, I take the most common one, but I think some have been slow to update given the Aaron Rodgers news, so I lowered it. With Rodgers likely to play, this line should be three, so give me the Packers.
Packers 24 - 23
Bengals +10.5 at Vikings
The Bengals were such garbage last week, and now they travel to Minnesota where they should get stomped. But I'm going to be a contrarian here and take the points. I'll probably regret it.
Vikings 24 - 17
Dolphins +2* at Bills
* made-up line
This line is off the board probably due to Tyrod Taylor's uncertain status. Taylor said he was definitely playing, but his coach was noncommittal. I'm assuming Taylor plays in which case three is probably the right number in frigid Buffalo. The chance that Taylor sits moves it to two for me, but I'll take the Dolphins who seem to have turned a corner the last two games.
Dolphins 23 - 20
Texans +11 at Jaguars
I like the Jaguars to bully a weak Texans team in Jacksonville. Lay the wood.
Jaguars 27 - 13
Jets +15.5 at Saints
The Saints should manhandle the Bryce Petty Jets in New Orleans. I realize that's what every square thinks, but so be it. Lay the wood.
Saints 33 - 10
Cardinals +4 at Redskins
The Cardinals are fine as home dogs against frauds like the Titans, but on the road against a league average team, I'm fading them. Take the Redskins.
Redskins 26 - 20
Ravens -7 at Browns
The Browns find the most amazing ways to blow the cover every week, but as soon as you jump off them, you know they'll behave like a normal team. The Ravens are bullies, better against weak teams, and DeShone Kizer will gift them some points. But I'm going back to the well. Take the Browns.
Ravens 27 - 21
LATE GAMES
Rams +1.5 at Seahawks
The Rams are the better all around team, but the Seahawks are tough at home and laying less than the full three. Back Seattle, though the massive kicker disparity concerns me a little bit.
Seahawks 27 - 24
Patriots -3 at Steelers
I wanted to buy low on the Patriots here, but this line is too big. Three on the road is like nine in New England, and that's excessive. Take the Steelers.
Patriots 31 - 30
Titans +2 at 49ers
This is trendy and obvious, but I have to take Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners at home laying less than the full three. Back San Francisco.
49ers 26 - 20
SUNDAY NIGHT
Cowboys -3 at Raiders
I foolishly backed the Raiders last week in Kansas City, and I'm done with them. They're not good on offense or defense. Lay the wood.
Cowboys 27 - 20
MONDAY NIGHT
Falcons -6 at Buccaneers
I hate the Buccaneers. Such a pointless team. But I'll hold my nose and take them against a division rival getting this many points on the road.
Falcons 23 - 20
To hear the podcast version of this article, click here.
I went 8-7-1 against the spread in Week 14 to put me at 100-99-9 on the season. I went 3-2 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 37-32-1 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.
